burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 @87 it's snowing in ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 at 84, the strong vort center has rotated northeast to west of Jackson, yet strangely theres still no precip in Tennessee. Otherwise, the Deep south is covered. the 850s are zero from Lake Lanier to Huntsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS still shears out the 500mb vort but QPF still looks good and 850's look a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 @96 it's further north with the precip but not as heavy as the 00z...still a good run so far and great agreement. Not worried about QPF but the snow maps should still be fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 at 84, the strong vort center has rotated northeast to west of Jackson, yet strangely theres still no precip in Tennessee. Otherwise, the Deep south is covered. the 850s are zero from Lake Lanier to Huntsville. Not buying that Robert. It's likely wrong. I have NEVER seen that general look with no precip along I-40. Time will tell, but I'd expect that to fill in sometime in the coming days (if this track holds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM keeps it stronger thru 84, but I would imagine the GFS would be the model to be trusted at this time range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 New GSP AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the 850's drop again once precip is going. So Atlanta probably goes back to snow (if they ever changed ) and that area is right in the middle of heavy precip. Huge hit for Alabama and Ga so far. The vort energy gets sturng out again , but its holding longer, each run, just like Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 eek at 105 it looks like precip is going to be much lighter for NC on this run compared to the 00z run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the interaction between the 2 waves is a little later this run....by hr 105 you finally see this happening as the precip moves into the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 New GSP AFD LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 220 AM THU...THE LATEST OP MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTERAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THETIMING OF THE SRN STREAM S/W APPROACHING THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SUN.THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENTWITH THE SFC LOW PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE SUN INTO TUE. THE 00Z GGEMIS STILL SHOWING THE MILLER/B SOLN WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORELIKE A POSSIBLE OUTLIER.IN ANY CASE...THE LATE WEEKEND INTO MON LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WINTERWEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THETHERMAL/MASS FIELDS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SUN OR EARLYMON...WITH SOME -RA/IP MIX TO SET THINGS OFF ACROSS THE NON/MTNS.MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KCLT INDICATE A DEEP NEAR ZERO ISOTHERMAL LAYERDEVELOPING AROUND NOON WITH A DISTINCT DEFORMATION SIGNATURE ATH85/H8. SO...THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR ANOTHER SIGNIF SNOW EVENTACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THEPATTERN TO SHIFT OR BECOME SUPPRESSED DEPENDING ON THE HEMISPHERICBLOCKING PATTERNS AND THE SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF THE PAC JET INTOTHE WRN CONUS...SO THE LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM THESOUTH WILL BE KEPT AS IS. AN EXTENDED NW FLOW EVENT LOOKS TO FOLLOWTHE SYNOPTIC EVENT AND SNOW COULD STILL BE FALLING THROUGH WEDACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTN UPSLOPE REGIONS.MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THEPERIOD. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THENRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES MON WILL FILTER VERY LOW THETA/E AIRACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIX INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXT PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like it might stay snow here and in northeast Ga/upstate until the very end on this run. That 0c line is a little deceptive. The gfs has athens 850mb temp at only 0.7c with the rest of the warm nose only around 0.2 to 0.5c. So it should stay mostly, if not all snow with a sounding like that for northeast ga and the upstate. Surface temps are beautiful, around 25 to 27 over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Obviously, the model is having trouble with QPF field, and with the unusual dynamics and setup of this one, its understandable. The low is off Charleston at 114. Overall, perfect trends and track, and again the qpf amounts east of Tex and La should be dropped in the wastebasket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 @117 moisture is still in the Carolinas but 850 temps have warmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Major ice storm for central MS and AL from 72-84hrs Get your candles ready Birmingham! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That was as of 2:20AM this morn. I assume, however, that the thoughts will remain the same today. HPC is buying the GOM -> OBX track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Obviously, the model is having trouble with QPF field, and with the unusual dynamics and setup of this one, its understandable. The low is off Charleston at 114. Overall, perfect trends and track, and again the qpf amounts east of Tex and La should be dropped in the wastebasket. Look how it keeps it around for Tuesday with probably light now or flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Precipitation looks to be lowered for North Carolina =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wouldn't surprise me if that deformation signature did take place given the setup with the event. We'll see, though. Nice to hear GSP getting more excited about the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Precipitation looks to be lowered for North Carolina =( Like Robert said, don't worry about that right now. QPF amounts will probably be a now cast situation. Track and look is good so we shouldn't be too worried. I still think this gives us a good 4 inches even with the low QPF for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Precipitation looks to be lowered for North Carolina =( Like FoothillsNC said, don't worry about qpf amounts right now. Worrying about what one model shows one run several days out is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Dont worry about the qpf maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS is slower with the northern stream energy this run. For us here in NC, we need the energy to not be too late, or this may never come together for a major system. The southern stream s/w WILL damp out as it moves into the confluent flow. This mean that the precip associated with it will weaken as it moves east from MS/TN/AL/GA into the Carolinas, we need the northern stream energy to dive in and keep it going and spark coastal development. That is the recipe for a major winter storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Obviously, the model is having trouble with QPF field, and with the unusual dynamics and setup of this one, its understandable. The low is off Charleston at 114. Overall, perfect trends and track, and again the qpf amounts east of Tex and La should be dropped in the wastebasket. Taken literally, this is a 7 or 8 inch snow here. Ratios should be pretty good to start but rise a little with the 850s warming to near 0c. That should promote huge flakes though as the flakes melt a little and stick together as they fall through that layer. Atlanta probably gets 4 or 5 inches before changing over to sleet and freezing rain but it happens after the majority of the precip falls..enough to put a good glaze on everything to make everything exceptionally beautiful. We then have a period of light freezing rain or drizzle so it's going to look amazing by the time it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Also helps drag down cold air, right? That high pressure is AWFULLY far west ...... GFS is slower with the northern stream energy this run. For us here in NC, we need the energy to not be too late, or this may never come together for a major system. The southern stream s/w WILL damp out as it moves into the confluent flow. This mean that the precip associated with it will weaken as it moves east from MS/TN/AL/GA into the Carolinas, we need the northern stream energy to dive in and keep it going and spark coastal development. That is the recipe for a major winter storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS wants to ring out an inch of snow Friday night in the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Also helps drag down cold air, right? That high pressure is AWFULLY far west ...... Plenty of cold surface air around, not worried about that. The warming aloft will depend on the track of the low and the exact interaction between the two s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Look how it keeps it around for Tuesday with probably light now or flurries. Clearly see the deformation axis and it tilts backwards, this time across the Tenn Valley, as happened with the 1982 as well. The incoming vort energy will help prolong snow within this axis of high RH. I don't know where that axis lines up exactly, but there will be one. All models have it. The Euro also had it across the Carolinas stretching west, before it weakens and heads north somewhat. Its great to see that feature, first you get heavy rates from the first 12 hours of the storm, then periods of additional accuulating snows afterwards. The Lee trough stretching back from the surface low off Charleston to the southern Apps will help. We usually do very well with tracks like this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS snowfall map is a hoot to look at... Shows 4-6" for all of Georgia north Columbus to north of Macon to Augusta with the exception of far NW GA where is shows less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS snowfall map is a hoot to look at... Shows 4-6" for all of Georgia north Columbus to north of Macon to Augusta with the exception of far NW GA where is shows less. Then everyone is going to get at least 0.10 of freezing rain on top of it. 4 to 6 inches of snow on a frozen ground with temps in the mid to upper 20s and then throw on 0.10 to 0.25 of freezing rain and you are talking about a recipe for The roads to be an absolute nightmare. In fact, travel would be nearly impossible with several inches of snow with ice on top of it. So if this gfs run verified, this is about as high of an impact winter storm as it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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