The Jan 9-11 Storm

[Cold Rain]

I am very sure someone has already posted ths, but the GFS past 264 shows over one crushing blow after another of snow for widespread areas. I KNOW this will not shake out like this, but this goes to show the pattern we are in, whcih Foothills described earlier in the week (or sometime along those lines). If that were to come to fruition, we would talk about this winter for the rest of our lives and probably not ever come close to matching it! Regardless, I am excited about this pattern and with this was not 250-300 hours out. LMAO. Wishing all our SE brethren from LA, Alabama, MS, GA, Tenn, Fla, SC, NC and LOWER VA luck in the coming days....

Oh, one last thing...this 1-10-11 system has me A LOT more excited than the Christmas system. With that system, we had to hold our breaths and "thread a needle" for it to come together.

Nonsense! That storm was guaranteed a week out.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

6z was crazy historic with thcold can you imagine

-5 for hat, nc the new north pole?

[MotoWeatherman]

It looks extremely impressive..it almost gives me goosebumps lol

One thing to keep in mind with respect to precip type and soundings. Even though the soundings might suggest a changeover to sleet, it should be kept in mind that strong lift, high precip rates, and dynamical cooling could delay any changeover for a good little while. Given how heavy the precip looks on the gfs, I have serious doubts that the gfs is right with the degree of warming it's showing aloft.

I agree with that completely. The trends most of the time are to come in colder the last few runs before the event plus dynamics looks very impressive.

I hate things looking this good with still a lot of time to go.

[isohume]

I've never understood why nws offices do that either. Maybe isohume could chime in and tell us.

nam is certainly more neutral with the trough than the 06z run. Wetter in tx too vs the 06z

I can't speak for any other office, but part of the reason the sfc temps Sat (I'm assuming you're talking about Sat) are advertised a few degrees below climo...is the direction and velocity of the H85 flow. Both of these components are conducive to a strong downslope warming enhancement outside the mtns. The dir is almost due west and the speed is > 30 kts. This enhancement, combined with max insolation, is enough to add several degrees to the sfc temps (when based on h85 temps alone) and it's a scenario confidently supported by the statistical guidance. The mtn valleys will struggle Sat to get above freezing, if they do at all. Another factor for the warmer non/mtn sfc temps is that the sfc-h85 caa is minimal with this sort of wind/temp configuration. The h85 t-grad is pretty much just "settling" into the region (horizontal mixing) throughout the day as opposed to being highly forced.

[FLO]

I am very sure someone has already posted ths, but the GFS past 264 shows over one crushing blow after another of snow for widespread areas. I KNOW this will not shake out like this, but this goes to show the pattern we are in, whcih Foothills described earlier in the week (or sometime along those lines). If that were to come to fruition, we would talk about this winter for the rest of our lives and probably not ever come close to matching it! Regardless, I am excited about this pattern and with this was not 250-300 hours out. LMAO. Wishing all our SE brethren from LA, Alabama, MS, GA, Tenn, Fla, SC, NC and LOWER VA luck in the coming days....

Oh, one last thing...this 1-10-11 system has me A LOT more excited than the Christmas system. With that system, we had to hold our breaths and "thread a needle" for it to come together.

Actually for us in the midlands of SC the Christmas storm is better than this. We are barely on the line for freezing rain. Which I don't want anyway.

[rlsrlj]

I agree with that completely. The trends most of the time are to come in colder the last few runs before the event plus dynamics looks very impressive.

I hate things looking this good with still a lot of time to go.

If you compare the GFS since it started showing the storm yesterday at 18z, there has been a cold trend in the 850 level...will be interesting to see if that keeps up for the 12z run.

[bta0812]

Guys I never post here, especially not until the storm is nearly here, but I have been reading often the last few weeks and you guys are some smart dudes. I know nothing about all of this and I've learned more about the weather reading this stuff than I have from watching the weather for 20 years. Sometimes for the new guys around here, just fwiw its better to just read than to post.

[DLI4SCwx]

It looks extremely impressive..it almost gives me goosebumps lol

One thing to keep in mind with respect to precip type and soundings. Even though the soundings might suggest a changeover to sleet, it should be kept in mind that strong lift, high precip rates, and dynamical cooling could delay any changeover for a good little while. Given how heavy the precip looks on the gfs, I have serious doubts that the gfs is right with the degree of warming it's showing aloft.

I for one hope you are right Lookout. I'd much rather have 33 and rain, then to have any prolonged icing event. That's no good for anyone.

[Lookout]

I can't speak for any other office, but part of the reason the sfc temps Sat (I'm assuming you're talking about Sat) are advertised a few degrees below climo...is the direction and velocity of the H85 flow. Both of these components are conducive to a strong downslope warming enhancement outside the mtns. The dir is almost due west and the speed is > 30 kts. This enhancement, combined with max insolation, is enough to add several degrees to the sfc temps (when based on h85 temps alone) and it's a scenario confidently supported by the statistical guidance. The mtn valleys will struggle Sat to get above freezing, if they do at all. Another factor for the warmer non/mtn sfc temps is that the sfc-h85 caa is minimal with this sort of wind/temp configuration. The h85 t-grad is pretty much just "settling" into the region throughout the day as opposed to being highly forced.

Thanks for the interesting and detailed reply isohume. I really haven't looked at this particular situation and your reasoning seems sound to me.

But there are times I do scratch my head at some of the temp forecasts, especially from FFC. Often times they will go 10 degrees above what model output is showing and most of the time they don't come close to verifying. If they used the excellent reasoning you are using it's one thing but most of the time when they do this, I can't see where they are getting it from.

[Wow]

TX is soaked by the NAM

[SN_Lover]

I know the 12 UTC GFS is gonna come out, but the 6 UTC temperature departure is unbelievable!

[isohume]

Thanks for the interesting and detailed reply isohume. I really haven't looked at this particular situation and your reasoning seems sound to me.

But there are times I do scratch my head at some of the temp forecasts, especially from FFC. Often times they will go 10 degrees above what model output is showing and most of the time they don't come close to verifying. If they used the excellent reasoning you are using it's one thing but most of the time when they do this, I can't see where they are getting it from.

I will tell you this, and not to slam FFC as I don't know their office methods or philosophy, but they are consistently one of the hardest offices to coordinate with, especially with temps. Many times we are out of tolerance (> 5 F) when we publish our grids. I don't know if it's a southern region / eastern region issue or not, but we seem to have no problem coordinating with MRX...and that's across complex terrain. I'll leave it at that.

[FoothillsNC]

TX is soaked by the NAM

yes they are. Typical white hole over me. Thats gonna change soon

[HurricaneTracker]

I can't speak for any other office, but part of the reason the sfc temps Sat (I'm assuming you're talking about Sat) are advertised a few degrees below climo...is the direction and velocity of the H85 flow. Both of these components are conducive to a strong downslope warming enhancement outside the mtns. The dir is almost due west and the speed is > 30 kts. This enhancement, combined with max insolation, is enough to add several degrees to the sfc temps (when based on h85 temps alone) and it's a scenario confidently supported by the statistical guidance. The mtn valleys will struggle Sat to get above freezing, if they do at all. Another factor for the warmer non/mtn sfc temps is that the sfc-h85 caa is minimal with this sort of wind/temp configuration. The h85 t-grad is pretty much just "settling" into the region (horizontal mixing) throughout the day as opposed to being highly forced.

Awesome explanation. Thanks!

I am not really looking forward to days with temperatures at or below freezing. I don't mind the snow so much, but this cold weather is getting old. What happened to our "typical" La Nina winter?

[tnweathernut]

Thoughts while we wait on the GFS.

No one has mentioned this that I have seen. If it has, I am sorry for the duplication but............the clipper is really beefing up in amounts for the higher elevations on the NAM. Not out of the question for someone in the mountains to get 6-10 inches it appears BEFORE the actual storm for the weekend arrives. I wonder if this doesn't go down in the record books for them (as far as snow) as they have already had TWO very heavy events. It really does look incredible for the southern apps above 3500 feet, not to mention it looks pretty darn good for the lower elevations too.

We (Tricities, TN) got two inches + last night and should do at least that well with the clipper. If we take a hit from the late weekend early next week storm then it's very possible we keep snowcover here in northeast TN for as long or longer than the snowstorm in 1996.

Not to mention the brutal cold air that could make it in here toward mid month. We might just be on the doorstep of a historic old school winter. (think of a scaled down version of the mid-atlantic snows last year) Time will tell, but that is at the very least on the table. IMO

[Lookout]

I will tell you this, and not to slam FFC as I don't know their office methods or philosophy, but they are consistently one of the hardest offices to coordinate with, especially with temps. Many times we are out of tolerance (> 5 F) when we publish our grids. I don't know if it's a southern region / eastern region issue or not, but we seem to have no problem coordinating with MRX...and that's across complex terrain. I'll leave it at that.

Interesting. I have always noticed the differences between you guys on temps along your border counties and wondered why they weren't closer. I knew it was possibly a cordination issue (in fact someone actually brought it up yesterday I think) but most of the time I just figured it was because you guys were about a 100x better than them. GSP is by far one of the best nws offices in the country and FFC would be wise to follow your lead..you would think they would get tired of you guys kicking their ass all the time

[EmersonGA]

It certainly has caught my attention. The cold on the euro and gfs is incredible. Considering the cold ground conditions ahead of this storm and cold conditions afterwards, very little should melt before the real deal gets here and with that in mind the temps should be amazing.

My grandfather told me of a time it was so cold for a week, that the cows were able to completely cross over the lake. Always wanted to know what it took to get them there, hope i find out

I have a picture taken in Rome, GA probably in 1940 with the Coosa was frozen over and people were out playing on it. Snow was everywhere. There was some caption talking about it being below zero for an extended period.

I'm going to make sure I have some pvc and glue just in case we see something extreme.

[WeatherNC]

But given what we have now from the models it appears that for NC at least, points to the south and east of RDU would be more ice than snow. Does that seem reasonable?

you answered your own question, it is too early to pin-point who, where, and what with regards to dominant p-types as there is still a fair amount of uncertainty. The GFS imo is currently an outlier with regards to its handling of the UL features. This model dampens and shears out the vort quicker than the GGEM and ECMWF, however, it deepens the 850 low on a track from New Orleans through the Cumberland Plateau, only to have it jump to the coast near the VA Capes thereafter.

The ECMWF on the other hand is more consolidated with the southern stream parcel, and does not deepen the 850 like the GFS does. It tracks a weak 850 low through central MS-AL, and then offshore around ILM. Huge difference in this regard with sig implications depending on which model is right. Given the Euro's more comprehensive data injest, higher resolution, and better verification scores, it should be given more weight than the GFS and Canadian at this stage.

The GGEM is similar to the EC in its depiction of keeping the H5 low intact, although the Canadian has the ULL in AR, while the EC has it in MS. This is reasonable agreement and supports the assumption of the GFS being out to lunch on how it handles the UL energy. The Canadian is different from the Euro though in how it handles the 850. It takes the 850 low from the central gulf coast up through the TN Valley, with no jump to the coast until 144hrs, and by that time it is just east of NJ. Huge difference and major implications as to who, what, when, where, and why.

Even at this stage, there still considerable uncertainty. A hybrid scenario, like the Canadian shows, would mean a broader bag of p-type issues, whereas an event similar to the ECMWF would cut down on ZR and IP zones, with a more RN-SN event. I looked at the Skew-T plots for RDU and PGV from the 0z Euro, and both places look like at predominantly SN or IP event, with the column <0C for the duration. Saturation above 700mb looks less than impressive, as do 700mb temps. That could indicate plates and columns (IP), if temps and moisture aloft are not supportive of nucleation (SN).

[weatherheels]

Sorry, posted in wrong thread.... will re-post here.

0z Euro at 96

Resized to 96% (was 1000 x 600) - Click image to enlarge

now 12z NAM at 84

Resized to 96% (was 1000 x 600) - Click image to enlarge

Im not a MET, but DAMN do these look close to my untrained eye.

[RevDodd]

I am not really looking forward to days with temperatures at or below freezing. I don't mind the snow so much, but this cold weather is getting old. What happened to our "typical" La Nina winter?

Ahh, if you don't care for this cold, you're REALLY not going to like what's coming down the pike.

Check out the MeteoStar stats toward the end of next week. Brrr! Even if temps don't really get THAT cold, it's going to be brutal.

[MotoWeatherman]

That clipper on Friday is looking like a nice teaser for TN and NC and far N GA.

[strongwxnc]

Would be a while before folks could dig out. Luckily,those spots that get the event off the clipper might be use to that amount. + that with the system in the Monday-Tuesday time frame + that with the cold that could be on its way next week. Some folks might be chillen for a while.

Good post sir..

Thoughts while we wait on the GFS.

No one has mentioned this that I have seen. If it has, I am sorry for the duplication but............the clipper is really beefing up in amounts for the higher elevations on the NAM. Not out of the question for someone in the mountains to get 6-10 inches it appears BEFORE the actual storm for the weekend arrives. I wonder if this doesn't go down in the record books for them (as far as snow) as they have already had TWO very heavy events. It really does look incredible for the southern apps above 3500 feet, not to mention it looks pretty darn good for the lower elevations too.

We (Tricities, TN) got two inches + last night and should do at least that well with the clipper. If we take a hit from the late weekend early next week storm then it's very possible we keep snowcover here in northeast TN for as long or longer than the snowstorm in 1996.

Not to mention the brutal cold air that could make it in here toward mid month. We might just be on the doorstep of a historic old school winter. (think of a scaled down version of the mid-atlantic snows last year) Time will tell, but that is at the very least on the table. IMO

[RaleighWx]

My morning discussion done before the 12z GFS.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/major-winter-storm-likely-for-the-southeast-sunday-through-tuesday

[burgertime]

Well I can't look at the final outcome of the 12z GFS but at 60 it's already forming our storm. Got a business meeting from 10:30 to 11:30.

[FoothillsNC]

the clipper snow should be able to drop flurries in a lot of places east of the mountains, except maybe around Spartanburg-Gaffney-Shelby area, verbatim from the GFS.

[Brick Tamland]

My morning discussion done before the 12z GFS.

http://www.examiner....through-tuesday

Looks like it's going to be a major mess in the Triangle either way you look at it.

[MotoWeatherman]

At 72hr GFS trough has gone neutral tilt in central TX.

[rduwx]

Looks like the 12z gfs already has a neg tilt at hr 75...heavy qpf in SE Tx.

[burgertime]

Well never mind meeting was at 11:30....@81 the GFS just looks great taking a track much like the 00z Euro IIRC.

[FoothillsNC]

Bad boy taking shape in south Texas at 72. Its already swinging negative and heavy precip in southern Ark. to most of central and east Tx, and all of La, into southern Ms. The vort energy in eastern Tx is extremely strong, similar to Euro.