Batman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was just telling the GF if it snows a lot it could be with us all week, would be like the mountains last year during the Dec. storm. One other thing is that with the snowpack it could really drive our temps down and hold them down pretty well. Just think if we got another big storm the week after with some snow still sticking around? Goodness gracious. Burger, looks you may have ample opportunity to try out the new snow boots!! I just did a blog run through of some of the mets I follow in the SE to see what they were saying about the Sun./Mon. storm and beyond. Here is what they had to say; Kirk Mellish - ATL - actually mentions the potential for sig. snow/ice acc. somewhere in the area. Sun./Mon in his 5 day froecast. No new discussion on his blog this morning. James Spann - BHM - He thinks this is looking mainly rain for the BHM area with a changeover to snow poss. Sunday night. acc. uncertain. Does not sound that impressed with the cold following the storm. Says it could be colder jan 19-22. Matthew East - NC - Most of Matthew's opinions are known here because he is kind enough to post them on this board. He thinks this is a potential big storm for much of the SE. He also warns of the cold air to follow. Has a great discussion and video this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Burger, looks you may have ample opportunity to try out the new snow boots!! I just did a blog run through of some of the mets I follow in the SE to see what they were saying about the Sun./Mon. storm and beyond. Here is what they had to say; Kirk Mellish - ATL - actually mentions the potential for sig. snow/ice acc. somewhere in the area. Sun./Mon in his 5 day froecast. No new discussion on his blog this morning. James Spann - BHM - He thinks this is looking mainly rain for the BHM area with a changeover to snow poss. Sunday night. acc. uncertain. Does sound that impreesed with the cold following the storm. Says it could be colder jan 19-22. Matthew East - NC - Most of Matthew's opinions are known here because he is kind enough to post them on this board. He thinks this is a potential big storm for much of the SE. He also warns of the cold air to follow. Has a great discussion and video this morning. I was thinking about his boots too...might come in handy soon. Btw, my blog is also updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was thinking about his boots too...might come in handy soon. Btw, my blog is also updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Thanks for the heads up. I have added Shelby weather to my Favs so I can more easily keep up with what you are thinking. I love the way things are taking shape for all of us in the SE. I would love to stay all snow here in N. GA., but it looks like there is a good chance we could be ice for awhile ( in the ATL area). At least, right now we are looking to stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was thinking about his boots too...might come in handy soon. Btw, my blog is also updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Enjoyed the blog Robert, Thanks for all you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pathfinder Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Great posts Matt and Robert, thanks for sharing links to your blogs. Looks like a great opportunity shaping up for us here, look forward to following this one over the weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the 12Z nam has light snow even in n. Ga and western SC (flurries) breaking east of the mountains tomorrow and tomorrow night. Even mby. I never see flurries here but some models have been showing that without a lot of downslope, guess we'll see if some flurries make it across. By 60 hour, the NAM is much stronger with the southwest low. It has a closed low in the southern Rockies with a stout trough through norhtern Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Total qpf on tomorrows and Saturday clipper event is .10" for Nashville and more for the eastern third of Tenn, and wstern NC. Even most of the Carolinas get trace amounts both states, also northern GA could get over 1" if the nam is right. Quite a little snow event esp. on the usual upslope areas. By 66 hours the trough isn't tilting neutral yet in west Texas but looks like it will, Kind of like the Euro and GFS but maybe stronger. The cold thickness over the Tenn Valley and Carolinas shows a really tight gradient, northern NC is going be frigid about as cold as any outbreak this season for much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very nice write up on your page Robert. It strikes the right tone of alerting people to a possible winter storm and explaining to people the devil is still in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 -12 reaches northern SC on this run and -16 over western Va and southern WVa. Highs will struggle to reach 32 in both GSP and CLT. I noticed the upstate stations last night going for upper 40's there. Really makes me wonder why they keep doing this in the cold outbreaks we've had the last 2 years, just 2 and 3 days out. At 72 hours, strong neutral standing deep trough in western to central Texas, precip develops rapidly in the lonestar state. (heavy at that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Total qpf on tomorrows and Saturday clipper event is .10" for Nashville and more for the eastern third of Tenn, and wstern NC. Even most of the Carolinas get trace amounts both states, also northern GA could get over 1" if the nam is right. Quite a little snow event esp. on the usual upslope areas. By 66 hours the trough isn't tilting neutral yet in west Texas but looks like it will, Kind of like the Euro and GFS but maybe stronger. The cold thickness over the Tenn Valley and Carolinas shows a really tight gradient, northern NC is going be frigid about as cold as any outbreak this season for much of NC. it's near neutral by 72. Very robust and sharp trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 -12 reaches northern SC on this run and -16 over western Va and southern WVa. Highs will struggle to reach 32 in both GSP and CLT. I noticed the upstate stations last night going for upper 40's there. Really makes me wonder why they keep doing this in the cold outbreaks we've had the last 2 years, just 2 and 3 days out. At 72 hours, strong neutral standing deep trough in western to central Texas, precip develops rapidly in the lonestar state. (heavy at that) I've never understood why nws offices do that either. Maybe isohume could chime in and tell us. nam is certainly more neutral with the trough than the 06z run. Wetter in tx too vs the 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Burger, looks you may have ample opportunity to try out the new snow boots!! Matthew East - NC - Most of Matthew's opinions are known here because he is kind enough to post them on this board. He thinks this is a potential big storm for much of the SE. He also warns of the cold air to follow. Has a great discussion and video this morning. I was thinking about his boots too...might come in handy soon. Btw, my blog is also updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Haha thanks guys, they were expensive boots that I was going back and forth on before I pulled the trigger. I hate going out in the snow and being limited to how long I can stay out because of wet feet. Matt did a wonderful job with his video this morning. Already forwarded it to a couple of co workers. Sometimes though I wish Matty would throw us weenies a bone and tells us what the accumulations look like verbatim...hehehe but he knows better then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have a feeling that once the NAM has the entire event within its scope, its QPF numbers are going to go bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 -12 reaches northern SC on this run and -16 over western Va and southern WVa. Highs will struggle to reach 32 in both GSP and CLT. I noticed the upstate stations last night going for upper 40's there. Really makes me wonder why they keep doing this in the cold outbreaks we've had the last 2 years, just 2 and 3 days out. At 72 hours, strong neutral standing deep trough in western to central Texas, precip develops rapidly in the lonestar state. (heavy at that) I noticed that yesterday in the AFD's from Raleigh, I couldn't imagine why they were saying that, just going with climo I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was thinking about his boots too...might come in handy soon. Btw, my blog is also updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Great to read, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have a feeling that once the NAM has the entire event within its scope, its QPF numbers are going to go bonkers. I agree Wow....It's already going crazy w/ qpf in SE Texas at hr 81 & 84. Looks like it goes neg tilt around hr 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the 12Z nam has light snow even in n. Ga and western SC (flurries) breaking east of the mountains tomorrow and tomorrow night. Even mby. I never see flurries here but some models have been showing that without a lot of downslope, guess we'll see if some flurries make it across. By 60 hour, the NAM is much stronger with the southwest low. It has a closed low in the southern Rockies with a stout trough through norhtern Mexico. This looks like the storm to break down the triangle of snow hell barrier Robert! Are you feeling like you, Jerms, Burger and myself will FINALLY cash in with a foot this time? I know its weenie question (to a lot of folks out there) but the 4 of us have endured some NEAR MISSES WAY too often, for may years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM @78.. precip shield further north than 6z GFS but is just as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NAM at 84 looks good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree Wow....It's already going crazy w/ qpf in SE Texas at hr 81 & 84. Looks like it goes neg tilt around hr 81. NAM @78.. precip shield further north than 6z GFS but is just as cold. Yep that QPF in east TX and LA is just crazy....this has got my tail wagging for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM @78.. precip shield further north than 6z GFS but is just as cold. Wow, I have that feeling that this will be the storm where you get your 12"+ of snow. Rooting for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep that QPF in east TX and LA is just crazy....this has got my tail wagging for sure. NAM is bully-- has me excited up here in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At 84hour the NAM goes negative tilt and the floodgates are ready to open up across N MS/AL/GA. NAM holds cue...next up GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Could someone explain?.....On Twister data the sim radar for the NAM @ 84hrs has a blue donut hole almost in the middle of the precip. field over NE LA. Looks similar to a tropical low. Thanks in Advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very nice write up on your page Robert. It strikes the right tone of alerting people to a possible winter storm and explaining to people the devil is still in the details. thanks for all the comments! This looks like the storm to break down the triangle of snow hell barrier Robert! Are you feeling like you, Jerms, Burger and myself will FINALLY cash in with a foot this time? I know its weenie question (to a lot of folks out there) but the 4 of us have endured some NEAR MISSES WAY too often, for may years... we certainly need to cash in here , after last years close calls, and the funny ways precip spreads around me or dies just before getting here (of course that used to be a mostly Summer phenomenon for me) but this looks good. How I envision maybe, the precip streaks east under the confluence from arkansas to northern GA and maybe even getting close to here by Sunday night. I'm not sure why all the models are holding back precip for so long, but I've notice it a lot , and I'm betting once again that will be an error (for all of them). All the maps I saw from previous storms had precip reaching N. Ga already while the shortwave was in western Texas (sometimes ) and definitely by the time it was in eastern Tx or La coast, so I think the models will catch on soon to a faster arrival. But if the northeast vortex holds longer than could stall it. Usually when theres a far southern TEx. system and strong 50/50 low, the moisture gets squeeze played due east on the top shield, under a jet streak, so I wouldn't be surprised to see snow reach Little rock to Chattanooga much sooner than shown, or really an axis somehwere near there. But the NAM looks reasonable with 5h look. No complaints. There is going to be a lot of convergence and gulf moisutre in Texas, over 2". Now to get that moisture up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Could someone explain?.....On Twister data the sim radar for the NAM @ 84hrs has a blue donut hole almost in the middle of the precip. field over NE LA. Looks similar to a tropical low. Thanks in Advance Model Indigestion. That "hole" would likely not be there and has nothing to do with any sort of low pressure center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey everybody. Thanks very much for the excellent posts, discussion and resources. This board does a great job in providing information and teaching folks. I realize also that this is not a banter thread and so my concern at this point about the system for the Monday/Tuesday time frame involves temperature. There looks like there could be a rather sharp temperature gradient during the event particularly aloft, given that CAD should keep surface temps rather cold. This warm nose would be responsible for the possible large area of sleet and freezing rain. I understand that we can't pin it down at this time as to actual location of the more ice than snow line and that it will become clearer as we get closer to the event or are indeed in the event itself. But given what we have now from the models it appears that for NC at least, points to the south and east of RDU would be more ice than snow. Does that seem reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NAM has an 850 mb low over LA at 84 hours...as did the 0Z GFS at the same time stamp. The GFS then moved that low to N GA...which causes 850's to warm out ahead of it across the Carolinas. I'm not sure how the Euro handled this feature. Anyway, is there a way that the 850 low can track further south across central GA and off the coast of SC, and if so how do we accomplish this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am very sure someone has already posted ths, but the GFS past 264 shows over one crushing blow after another of snow for widespread areas. I KNOW this will not shake out like this, but this goes to show the pattern we are in, whcih Foothills described earlier in the week (or sometime along those lines). If that were to come to fruition, we would talk about this winter for the rest of our lives and probably not ever come close to matching it! Regardless, I am excited about this pattern and with this was not 250-300 hours out. LMAO. Wishing all our SE brethren from LA, Alabama, MS, GA, Tenn, Fla, SC, NC and LOWER VA luck in the coming days.... Oh, one last thing...this 1-10-11 system has me A LOT more excited than the Christmas system. With that system, we had to hold our breaths and "thread a needle" for it to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At 84hour the NAM goes negative tilt and the floodgates are ready to open up across N MS/AL/GA. NAM holds cue...next up GFS... It looks extremely impressive..it almost gives me goosebumps lol One thing to keep in mind with respect to precip type and soundings. Even though the soundings might suggest a changeover to sleet, it should be kept in mind that strong lift, high precip rates, and dynamical cooling could delay any changeover for a good little while. Given how heavy the precip looks on the gfs, I have serious doubts that the gfs is right with the degree of warming it's showing aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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