The Jan 9-11 Storm

[Itunis]

Like Larry and Cheez said, the 0Z runs have me worried that the north trend is starting. We're still 4 to 5 days out, so even if the models are in decent agreement at this point things can fall through easily. The 06Z GFS looks marginally warmer at 850 than the 0Z...

[burgertime]

I'm sure it's been posted but looking at the 00z SV map it paints a swath of 8-12 right over CLT across to Shelby and 4-8 over all of WNC down to GSP. I'll take those totals please.

[IWC]

I'm sure it's been posted but looking at the 00z SV map it paints a swath of 8-12 right over CLT across to Shelby and 4-8 over all of WNC down to GSP. I'll take those totals please.

Burger, I'm rooting for you man...

[KChuck]

Good post! Just re-read banter from last night. People relatively new to the board have fast lessons to learn if they want to continue to be able to post. During times of heavy activity that we are quickly approaching, it is best to tighten your seat belts and let the experienced drive the bus. Short statements and imby questions will not be tolerated for several reasons. One the mets are trying to figure out what the models are saying and are into heavy conversations between themselves. Your short statements adding nothing are pictured as a little child interrupting adults who are deep in conversation and will be similarly responded to with a spanking. Nothing personal is meant but don't be surprised if this happens. Two those of us who have been on the board for a while have taken the time to learn the proper etiquette for during these times of high stress, and realize the reason for holding back on these imby comments is that it would bring the board to a standstill if allowed to continue uncontrolled. Three people who do not live in your area and are trying to learn by following the mets conversations get VERY frustrated having to wade thru the endless repetitive imby questions from the same type of people and will call for action, for which the mods will gladly reply as part of their job description as sheriffs. I've read posts from last night where newbies came across somewhat rude like they owned the board and deserved special attention. Do this during the upcoming storm mode and you will most certainly receive it. All I'm saying is if you will read more and post less you will eventually pick up the jargon and be able to answer your own imby questions. And to the usual drivers of the bus, please excuse the irritations of some and know you are appreciated by the regulars!

For Randolph County/Triad: Where we are at as of Thursday a.m.

Basically a SE winter storm is on the way. Pattern screams for it and all models suport this.Kudos to Allan for calling Sun/Mon out last weekend just off pattern recognition. The biggest factor to be decided over the next several days is laid out perfectly in Phils post. People need to go back and read it. It has bigger implications to the southern SE crowd because of mixing issues ...

[POWERSTROKE]

I just had a look at the Euro and am still impressed with the big picture.

Snow will have already streaked very far east ahead of the system in Texas so I bet the models are all being too slow from N. Ga to the Carolinas on its arrival. Every system I looked at with this upper level look has the precip further east than shown. Either way though, I'm very excited for a big snow in Arkansas, eastward to Tenn and NC, upper SC, N. GA N. Al and N. Miss. . Unfortunately there's going to be a bad icestorm just south of the snow line. It looks like an early 80's Winter storm with about everything in it, but perhaps more moisture than many of those with many areas going over 1.0" liquid equivalent btwn I-20 and I-40. Pretty soon we'll have a much steadier hold on this track.

Robert check PM

[RevDodd]

Before the next day's madness prepares...

Thanks in advance for the work our met's and faithful followers are going to be putting into this one. There's no doubt tempers will be tested, and (speaking as on who lives on the current SN-IP-ZR-R line) there's a bunch of uncertainty for many of us.

So, if someone snaps at you for asking what appears to be a IMBY question, or chides you over preferring one run over another because it happens to dump a foot of snow, rather than an inch of ice, on your home town, don't take it personally. It's going to be a wild ride. The last thing our pilots need is people asking how many peanuts come in the complimentary snack package in coach.

Now...how much ice for Bunnlevel?

[msuwx]

Yeah, I about spit coffee on the screen when I saw the later panels of the 6z run.

Normally I dont care what the GFS shows in the long term but did anybody catch what it does at 6z? It drops 2 foot of snow and plunges my 850 temps to -27.

This one should.....I emphasize should....be a little easier to hone in on than the Christmas storm. We are not trying to thread the needle of a a perfect phase here.

Also, as others have said, almost every southern branch feature has wound up stronger than modeling has indicated a few days in advance. So, I would definitely side more with the stronger ideas of the GEM/Euro with respect to that.

[POWERSTROKE]

Morning all, I've read the threads and am wondering if this is typical disco everyone seems to be going run to runn and heading for the cliffs. I'm trying to keep a clear head about this and wait till were closer to Sunday befor getting excited. Anything that is frozen is great for me and powerstroke but I waiting to get closer to Sunday and see what happens. ( This is just a note to try to bring some folks back to reality and away from the cliffs.)

Let them jump. Never have seen so much arguing over nothing. This a weather forum and some get so mad at each other over a model or a question about one. There are only a few on here that depend on this forum for their jobs. It has helped you and me prepare trucks and employees for the storms while most on here sleep. I hope the storm does happen but still several days away and we both know how we can go from a blizzard to nothing. Now back away from the cliff Ray!!

[Poimen]

From HPC this morning:

OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN STATES THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A

POTENTIAL STORM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE WRN

ATLC... TRAILED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE PLAINS.

DURING DAYS 3-4 SUN-MON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A WHOLE PROVIDE A REASONABLE FCST ALONG THE GULF

COAST WITH CONFIRMATION FROM LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE UKMET/CMC

ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SRN STREAM SHRTWV SUPPORTING THE GULF

COAST SFC LOW... AND ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORED IN LIGHT OF

MULTI-DAY TRENDS/CONTINUITY THAT HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED SLOWER

PROGRESSION. GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. DUE TO THE

00Z ECMWF TRENDING SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH ENERGY CROSSING THE

CONUS DURING THE PERIOD... THAT MODEL EJECTS THE INITIAL WAVE EWD

INTO THE ATLC AND THEN TAKES ANOTHER 1-2 DAYS TO DEVELOP ITS

STRONGER WRN ATLC SFC LOW THAT ENDS UP ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE

MODEL/ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW BEST

CLUSTERING A LITTLE EWD OF THE 00Z GFS BUT THE GFS IS WITHIN THE

SOLN ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/CMC TRACKS ALSO FALL IN THE MIDDLE TO

WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD. WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERING THE BEST

CONTINUITY AMONG GUIDANCE SO FAR... PREFER TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE

00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS WITH ABOUT 1/3 WEIGHTING OF THE GFS TO

PROVIDE SOME ADDED STRENGTH FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. IT IS HOPED

THAT WITH A LARGER PROPORTION OF THE SUPPORTING ENERGY CROSSING A

MAJORITY OF THE CONUS VERSUS ENTERING THE CONUS FROM CANADA WHERE

MDLS HAVE MORE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHRTWV FEATURES... THAT THIS

SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER PREDICTABILITY THAN

PRECEDING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST.

0Z GFS ensemble mean looks favorable for more snow and less ice across the south, which many have said should be the case if this indeed ends up being a true Miller A.

[FoothillsNC]

I'm sure it's been posted but looking at the 00z SV map it paints a swath of 8-12 right over CLT across to Shelby and 4-8 over all of WNC down to GSP. I'll take those totals please.

Yeah, I about spit coffee on the screen when I saw the later panels of the 6z run.

This one should.....I emphasize should....be a little easier to hone in on than the Christmas storm. We are not trying to thread the needle of a a perfect phase here.

Also, as others have said, almost every southern branch feature has wound up stronger than modeling has indicated a few days in advance. So, I would definitely side more with the stronger ideas of the GEM/Euro with respect to that.

I just looked more closely at the 6hour increments for the Euro and wow, the low is closed with tremendous divergence while its located over the Arklatex at 96 hours, and almos closed over northern Alabama the next couple of frames. Obviously, once again the trend is for this southern stream to be a doozy, despite the nina. I'm overjoyed at this for a lot of places, because we'll have a lot of cold air inplace. Snow should fly beginning Sunday across the South, I'm not going by the exact verbatim model qpf output...its way too slow, based on its own setup. It should reach .N Ga and the western Carolinas by later afternoon Sunday, dark or so. The amount of lift and moisture is going to be amazing, probably more so than the Christmas storm for Miss. Ala GA and part of Tenn and SC especially.

[Amos83]

Okay guys, especially the noobies, I just read 15 pages from last night and probably half of it was complete B/S! Please read and be patient before popping of a dumb @#$ question about how much your back yard is getting or if you have been screwed yet again. If you listen to the regular posters on here you will get your answer. When they post a link try saving it so you can go back and use that source later to find your answer without asking.

On another note, just like every other storm we are entering the 3-4 day window when models go on a binge or something and get some wacky scenerio, wait another 36 hours and you will seem them sober up and start to come back to a more realistic solution. A large majority of the SE is standing in front of a major winter storm and the snow totals are going to waffle around for a while so just because you were supposed to get 8" yesterday but now it looks like 2" with a good bit of sleet/Fz Rain on top of that is still a major deal. Tomorrow you could just as easily be back in the "sweet" spot for heavy snow. 50 to 100 miles of waffling around from model to model run is normal this far out which means large swings in solutions for the SE so try to temper your clif diving preperations or your "I'm going to be buried in feet of snow" excitement because tomorrow things will change. We need to get within 36-48 hours of the storm to have a much better handle on what will happen.

Oh and the cold air coming after the storm is CRAZY! Like someone else said earlier a lot of people better be paying attention to that as well and preparing your pipes...

[msuwx]

Yes, both Euro and GEM have it as a closed, negative tilt feature over the delta region of MS. They are nearly identical. GFS will likely play catch-up there, and even the stronger modeling is probably weakening that feature too quickly.

I just looked more closely at the 6hour increments for the Euro and wow, the low is closed with tremendous divergence while its located over the Arklatex at 96 hours, and almos closed over northern Alabama the next couple of frames. Obviously, once again the trend is for this southern stream to be a doozy, despite the nina. I'm overjoyed at this for a lot of places, because we'll have a lot of cold air inplace. Snow should fly beginning Sunday across the South, I'm not going by the exact verbatim model qpf output...its way too slow, based on its own setup. It should reach .N Ga and the western Carolinas by later afternoon Sunday, dark or so. The amount of lift and moisture is going to be amazing, probably more so than the Christmas storm for Miss. Ala GA and part of Tenn and SC especially.

[BIG FROSTY]

The 0z euro only gives me 0.46 qpf, So I may be a little to far north to get in in the real good precip

6z GFS drops 0.45

[FoothillsNC]

The 0z euro only gives me 0.46 qpf, So I may be a little to far north to get in in the real good precip

Youre in an excellent location being in the northeast quadrant of the best lift, and plus you'll have a big duration with the incoming divergence/redevelopment from the Plains trough. Don't go by the models qpf numbers now, go by 5h placement.

[BIG FROSTY]

Youre in an excellent location being in the northeast quadrant of the best lift, and plus you'll have a big duration with the incoming divergence/redevelopment from the Plains trough. Don't go by the models qpf numbers now, go by 5h placement.

Thanks Robert, That'll make my breakfast taste better now. lol

[burgertime]

Okay guys, especially the noobies, I just read 15 pages from last night and probably half of it was complete B/S! Please read and be patient before popping of a dumb @#$ question about how much your back yard is getting or if you have been screwed yet again. If you listen to the regular posters on here you will get your answer. When they post a link try saving it so you can go back and use that source later to find your answer without asking.

On another note, just like every other storm we are entering the 3-4 day window when models go on a binge or something and get some wacky scenerio, wait another 36 hours and you will seem them sober up and start to come back to a more realistic solution. A large majority of the SE is standing in front of a major winter storm and the snow totals are going to waffle around for a while so just because you were supposed to get 8" yesterday but now it looks like 2" with a good bit of sleet/Fz Rain on top of that is still a major deal. Tomorrow you could just as easily be back in the "sweet" spot for heavy snow. 50 to 100 miles of waffling around from model to model run is normal this far out which means large swings in solutions for the SE so try to temper your clif diving preperations or your "I'm going to be buried in feet of snow" excitement because tomorrow things will change. We need to get within 36-48 hours of the storm to have a much better handle on what will happen.

Oh and the cold air coming after the storm is CRAZY! Like someone else said earlier a lot of people better be paying attention to that as well and preparing your pipes...

Normally I would agree but I feel like the HPC this isn't a convoluted or complicated system, it's pretty straight forward. I think it'll have some trouble with the QPF and spread there of, but I think it's locked on now and there probably won't be many wild swings from here on out (outside of 1 or 2).

[socar2001]

for educational purposes only can someone explain to me what legitimate scenarios would keep the areas currently forecasted to be mostly ice out of being mostly ice?

thannks!

[Amos83]

Normally I would agree but I feel like the HPC this isn't a convoluted or complicated system, it's pretty straight forward. I think it'll have some trouble with the QPF and spread there of, but I think it's locked on now and there probably won't be many wild swings from here on out (outside of 1 or 2).

Oh I agree, I should have worded my statement a little better. I think the idea that a significant winter storm is coming is pretty good. In this window (3-4 days) the models will waffle around a good bit on the exact placement of the storm thus leading to major swings in who is in the "sweet spot" and who is just barely too warm to remain all snow. Little changed cause big changed down the road. I think either tomorrow 12Z runs or tomorrow night's 0Z runs will finally lock in.

Either way you and I look to be sitting pretty good for a long duration Ol' Fashioned and it is about freaking' time! And the cold coming in behind it will keep our snow on the ground for a long time

[Amos83]

Matt, great post on your blog today! Any noobies or people trying to learn about what is unfolding should take a look. Here is a link to his blog for the CLT and Triangle region of NC. He does talk about the SE and not just NC so its a good view for everyone....

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

[buckeyefan1]

CAE..

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE

SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND

PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE GULF COASTAL

REGION TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED

WELL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH COLD

AIR FOR WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION. MAINLY USED THE TOP-DOWN

METHOD BASED ON THE GFS FOR THE WEATHER GRIDS. THIS MORNING/S

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH REFLECT THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT.

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR

WEDNESDAY.

Rain/Sleet/Snow listed in the grids with a 30-40% chance They forgot to mention the ice

[Lookout]

Can't sleep, got the flu so I pulled the Bufkit for FFC (closest station to my house) and it appears that around 96 hours on the 0z GFS, precip type will be snow, then changing to freezing rain at hour 102. The surface temp/dewpoint is suggested to be 32 and dewpoint 32. This doesn't sound conducive to very much ice accretion. In 2005, we had sleet and zrain with temps in the mid 20's and had frozen everything. It's been my experience that 32.0 is not cold enough to freeze quickly and therefore most of the rain will go towards melting what little snow fell in the first 6 hours (which would be frozen equivalent to .41 inches of liquid).

This ptype issue is going to be very important. Many people are going to want to secure generators if significant ice is expected. This, more importantly than snow, should be high priority on all AFD's I think.

You are looking at this from the assumption that the gfs has the temp right to begin with and that's a big mistake. For a number of runs, the gfs has been showing surface temps near or below freezing with dewpoints in the lower teens at the onset of precip. That means FFC, along with everyone else in north ga and even parts of north central ga, have low wetbulbs..generally in the upper 20s. And with a cold boundary layer up through 950mb or above and east to northeast flow throughout, ffc isn't going to warm up and neither is anyone else while precip is happening. The gfs is notoriously bad about prematuraly warming cad temps and for FFC this is no exception.

And before any of the noobs freak out by reading your post, no the gfs does not do this for the rest of north Ga...we stay below freezing the entire time and the fact is it will.

=

[MichaelJ]

As Robert said, I wouldn't get too hung up on QPF totals quite yet cause they will adjust as the track does. I still think this could trend a little farther (50-100 miles) but even if it doesn't, places like Columbia and Charlotte will have higher QPF totals than say HCKY or KGSO but because of the tremendous lift and very cold temps, the ratios will be huge in the northern sector of the storm. This could mean KINT and KGSO get more accumulation than say KCLT with less QPF if it trends slightly more North. Regardless most in the SE should end up with a nice blanket of frozen precip by Tues. morning with the Snow line running pretty far south into the upstate and N Ga. Just remind yourself this low is not even on shore yet and a LOT can happen or change in the next 3-4 days.

[Weather Czar]

Since everyone has been riding the DGEX, Here you go!

dgex.bmp

[burgertime]

Oh I agree, I should have worded my statement a little better. I think the idea that a significant winter storm is coming is pretty good. In this window (3-4 days) the models will waffle around a good bit on the exact placement of the storm thus leading to major swings in who is in the "sweet spot" and who is just barely too warm to remain all snow. Little changed cause big changed down the road. I think either tomorrow 12Z runs or tomorrow night's 0Z runs will finally lock in.

Either way you and I look to be sitting pretty good for a long duration Ol' Fashioned and it is about freaking' time! And the cold coming in behind it will keep our snow on the ground for a long time

Yea this is a wild one for sure, been a long time since we could feel so positive about a major winter storm coming.

[Lookout]

I know everyone is excited about the storm but the cold potential behind this is unlike anything we have seen here in the south since at least 89 probably more in line with the early 80s. The 2m temperature charts from 00z Euro show a low of -5 to -10 for Tupelo and Muscle Shoals and below 0 in Huntsville, Chatt, Memphis and Nash....This is certainly dependent on the snow laid down by the storm early in the week...The air mass following late next weekend looks epic if it unloads on us.

Take care of your pipes...Many of you have no idea what it is like to have to deal with this. It has been a long time....

It certainly has caught my attention. The cold on the euro and gfs is incredible. Considering the cold ground conditions ahead of this storm and cold conditions afterwards, very little should melt before the real deal gets here and with that in mind the temps should be amazing.

My grandfather told me of a time it was so cold for a week, that the cows were able to completely cross over the lake. Always wanted to know what it took to get them there, hope i find out

[chapelhillwx]

Even taking into account the fantasy land range of the -25 lows in NC, we stand a good shot at seeing maybe some low single digits.

[FoothillsNC]

It certainly has caught my attention. The cold on the euro and gfs is incredible. Considering the cold ground conditions ahead of this storm and cold conditions afterwards, very little should melt before the real deal gets here and with that in mind the temps should be amazing.

My grandfather told me of a time it was so cold for a week, that the cows were able to completely cross over the lake. Always wanted to know what it took to get them there, hope i find out

I can't remember the last time a very cold airmass arrived here in NC just before a snowfall arrived, almost all of them were "just cold enough" deals (where I am-- i know eastern NC had some biggies with cold too). So I'm looking forward to seeing how it sticks immediately. I do remember the 1982 event, and the 1988 one, both had very cold preceding them, so I guess thats really the last time it was so cold here just before a storm hit, and I loved watching those snows have no problem "laying" as my kinfolks say. The models have me barely going past freezing on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the lower teens.

[msuwx]

Thanks a bunch!

Matt, great post on your blog today! Any noobies or people trying to learn about what is unfolding should take a look. Here is a link to his blog for the CLT and Triangle region of NC. He does talk about the SE and not just NC so its a good view for everyone....

http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/

[Lookout]

I can't remember the last time a very cold airmass arrived here in NC just before a snowfall arrived, almost all of them were "just cold enough" deals (where I am-- i know eastern NC had some biggies with cold too). So I'm looking forward to seeing how it sticks immediately. I do remember the 1982 event, and the 1988 one, both had very cold preceding them, so I guess thats really the last time it was so cold here just before a storm hit, and I loved watching those snows have no problem "laying" as my kinfolks say. The models have me barely going past freezing on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the lower teens.

Man I can't remember either, I was only a few years old at the time of those. I've been wanting a big snow where the ground is frozen/cold for forever. Indeed, We all sat here last year amazed at how a half inch of snow stayed on the ground for a week in some places during that one cold spell and wished "if only it was more". Well this time we should have a lot more than that. A frozen ground just makes all the difference in the world and it's never been more evident these last few snow events while we were losing precious accumulation during the storm due to underneath melting. And This won't be a snow (or ice) that will melt in a day or two either. I'm excited at the prospect of seeing just how long a multi inch snow event could last on the ground under the right conditions for once. Throw in the fact we could get an appreciable amount of sleet to boot here, and it's going to be around a while

[burgertime]

Man I can't remember either, I was only a few years old at the time of those. I've been wanting a big snow where the ground is frozen/cold for forever. Indeed, We all sat here last year amazed at how a half inch of snow stayed on the ground for a week in some places during that one cold spell and wished "if only it was more". Well this time we should have a lot more than that. A frozen ground just makes all the difference in the world and it's never been more evident these last few snow events while we were losing precious accumulation during the storm due to underneath melting. And This won't be a snow (or ice) that will melt in a day or two either. I'm excited at the prospect of seeing just how long a multi inch snow event could last on the ground under the right conditions for once. Throw in the fact we could get an appreciable amount of sleet to boot here, and it's going to be around a while

I was just telling the GF if it snows a lot it could be with us all week, would be like the mountains last year during the Dec. storm. One other thing is that with the snowpack it could really drive our temps down and hold them down pretty well. Just think if we got another big storm the week after with some snow still sticking around? Goodness gracious.