Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well I'm going to have to disagree with you. I see nothing tonight that really makes me believe atlanta does any worse than 2 to 4 and If you are looking for an ALL snow event in atlanta itself, you probably will be dissappointed but getting slammed with sleet/fz rain after several inches of snow isn't small potatoes. Plus when folks start talking like this you get people thinking there is suddenly something terribly wrong and we are going to be totally screwed out of anything when that is simply not the case. Just my 2 cents though and I understand your frustration since it seems atlanta finds a way to get less snow than anyone else of late. Right now 2-4" would be my forecast- I will take it but I was hoping that it might be better than that- not impossible but becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Being on the western edge of Wake County will pay off for me this go around. My real interest is in the cold weather settling in next week. Anyone have a good handle on that just yet? Not really an IMBY question, but a SE question. How low will it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Right now 2-4" would be my forecast- I will take it but I was hoping that it might be better than that- not impossible but becoming less likely. Other than considering atlanta's persistent bad luck of missing the heavier totals in every direction, I just don't see how you can say it's unlikely to get more yet after one cycle this far in advance. Especially knowing how much the models have shifted from one run to the next with each of our last 3 big winter storms. You absolutely could be right and I'm not argueing that won't be the case..I simply don't see the need in suddenly becoming pessimistic all of a sudden. btw, about the euro. Just to be clear It does not show atlanta getting creamed with a lot of freezing rain. After hour 102, it shows 0.25 falling between 102 and 108 and 0.10 after 108. Indeed if you take into account the 6 hour increments, it's very well that most of the additional 0.25 that falls after hour 102 is snow because the 0c/snow transition is still SOUTH of atlanta at hour 102. You have to remember the 850mb temps you see at a given time stamp is only for that hour..not the entire prior 6 hours. The only given amounts that should be something other than snow for sure is around 0.10 that falls after hour 108. Also to be clear we are talking about atlanta metro, gainesville for example looks to be all snow with the euro showing a 1 inch bullseye near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why, I should think a colder climate would do the trick. I think Dallas had a 6"+ snowstorm last year right ? I also seem to remember parts of Southern Miss and Louisiana had 6"+ in Dec 2008 as well as Southern Texas in Dec 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Other than considering atlanta's persistent bad luck of missing the heavier totals in every direction, I just don't see how you can say it's unlikely to get more yet after one cycle this far in advance. Especially knowing how much the models have shifted from one run to the next with each of our last 3 big winter storms. You absolutely could be right and I'm not argueing that won't be the case..I simply don't see the need in suddenly becoming pessimistic all of a sudden. btw, about the euro. Just to be clear It does not show atlanta getting creamed with a lot of freezing rain. After hour 102, it shows 0.25 falling between 102 and 108 and 0.10 after 108. Indeed if you take into account the 6 hour increments, it's very well that most of the additional 0.25 that falls after hour 102 is snow because the 0c/snow transition is still SOUTH of atlanta at hour 102. You have to remember the 850mb temps you see at a given time stamp is only for that hour..not the entire prior 6 hours. The only given amounts that should be something other than snow for sure is around 0.10 that falls after hour 108. Also to be clear we are talking about atlanta metro, gainesville for example looks to be all snow with the euro showing a 1 inch bullseye near it. So, basically Atlanta is once again going to be right on the line of snow/freezing rain/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Did you not read his post at all? I certainly did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I certainly did. I deleted my post. I don't feel like getting into an argument right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I deleted my post. I don't feel like getting into an argument right now. He said Gainesville was looking at all snow, Atlanta is looking at a mix, and i'm assuming not too far south of Atlanta will be looking at a good bit of rain. I'm also curious about Birmingham. Is Birmingham going to get mostly rain, while Atlanta gets mostly wintry precip ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So, basically Atlanta is once again going to be right on the line of snow/freezing rain/rain. You live in Atlanta. You should be happy that you even get to be near the rain/snow line. Even central NC and southern VA struggle with that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He said Gainesville was looking at all snow, Atlanta is looking at a mix, and i'm assuming not too far south of Atlanta will be looking at a good bit of rain. I thought originally you were asking it as a question but then realized you were making it a statement which is why I deleted my post. Plus I don't feel like arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can't sleep, got the flu so I pulled the Bufkit for FFC (closest station to my house) and it appears that around 96 hours on the 0z GFS, precip type will be snow, then changing to freezing rain at hour 102. The surface temp/dewpoint is suggested to be 32 and dewpoint 32. This doesn't sound conducive to very much ice accretion. In 2005, we had sleet and zrain with temps in the mid 20's and had frozen everything. It's been my experience that 32.0 is not cold enough to freeze quickly and therefore most of the rain will go towards melting what little snow fell in the first 6 hours (which would be frozen equivalent to .41 inches of liquid). This ptype issue is going to be very important. Many people are going to want to secure generators if significant ice is expected. This, more importantly than snow, should be high priority on all AFD's I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can't sleep, got the flu so I pulled the Bufkit for FFC (closest station to my house) and it appears that around 96 hours on the 0z GFS, precip type will be snow, then changing to freezing rain at hour 102. The surface temp/dewpoint is suggested to be 32 and dewpoint 32. This doesn't sound conducive to very much ice accretion. In 2005, we had sleet and zrain with temps in the mid 20's and had frozen everything. It's been my experience that 32.0 is not cold enough to freeze quickly and therefore most of the rain will go towards melting what little snow fell in the first 6 hours (which would be frozen equivalent to .41 inches of liquid). This ptype issue is going to be very important. Many people are going to want to secure generators if significant ice is expected. This, more importantly than snow, should be high priority on all AFD's I think. Aren't generators pretty expensive ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Aren't generators pretty expensive ? Good ones yes, but very well worth the investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Kind of off topic but interesting. From Blacksburg"s AFD REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE SOME RETURNS OVER NC...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. IF BY CHANCE YOU HAVE ACCESS TO A REGIONAL MOSAIC WHICH CONTAINS RADAR RETURNS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...THIS IS IN ERROR. WINDS ALOFT ARE FROM THE WEST. AFTER INVESTIGATING...THE BOGUS RADAR DATA IS COMING FROM THE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE AIRPORT IN RALEIGH...NON NWS RADAR. THIS RADAR EXPERIENCED PROBLEMS EARLIER TODAY AND EVEN THOUGH IT IS OPERATING NOW...THE RETURNS ARE 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE FROM REALITY. I MADE THE MISTAKE OF THINKING THIS WAS REAL EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SITTING HERE BEING MIFFED BY WHAT I WAS SEEING...DID SOME INVESTIGATING TO IDENTIFY THE SOURCE. FOLKS OUTSIDE OF THIS OFFICE MAY NOT BE SEEING THIS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ALL OF THE WEATHER SERVICE RADAR MOSAICS ON THE WEB LOOK OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The more I look at it, the more I would like this to keep trending north. In this case, to avoid massive amounts of ice, I would like to be sitting at my computer reporting 35 degrees and heavy rain while knowing Lookout is getting his 12" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 With the chance of a rather substantial ice storm for parts of the SE., thought we should keep in mind that by Monday morning the wind will be blowing at 20 mph, with higher gust from the ENE in N. Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its interesting, the gfs came in significantly wetter on the 00z run and is seemingly in line with the Euro. However, their 500mb depictions are still not even close to being the same. The euro is much more intense with the southern stream shortwave and thats what generates most of the QPF for the southeast. Then the feature moves offshore before it is able to be captured by the rockies shortwave. The gfs on the other hand has a weaker southern stream shortwave, but before it dampens out entirely, it is captured by the rockies shortwave which sparks redevelopment of the surface low off the Atlantic coastline. The low then precedes to go up the coast. The end result is the same, a major winter storm for the southeast. However, the gfs solution is warmer because it shows a more hybrid miller A/B senerio playing out, while the Euro is just a straight up miller A. The GGEM is much more in line with the gfs camp, calling for a miller A/B hybrid. In the end, the high precipitation amounts are nice, but you have to focus on the 500mb evolution to really get an idea of whats going to happen. The gfs and ggem solutions are defiantly warmer, because the first shortwave dampens out and the heights rise slightly before the next rockies shortwave can dig into the southeast. The euro has the first shortwave dominating and moving further eastward, allowing more locations to stay below freezing because it doesn't merge with the second shortwave. Considering we are still 4-5 days out... there simply too much time to watch things to know who will exactly get what. However, I'm becoming convinced that somebody in the southeast is going to get a good thump of snow... likely above 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Too warm in the southeast for precipitation to start in a solid state according to the 0 UTC Canadian model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Too warm in the southeast for precipitation to start in a solid state according to the 0 UTC Canadian model is that based just on the 540 line? I think soundings have shown that it could be much farther south that that line is...just asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 is that based just on the 540 line? I think soundings have shown that it could be much farther south that that line is...just asking? That would be correct. The canadian is cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That would be correct. The canadian is cold enough. Ok, I hope this scenario doesn't play out though. A low in Tennessee would bring up gulf air =/ But this doesn't have GSP concerned NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC245 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 220 AM THU...THE LATEST OP MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTERAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND THETIMING OF THE SRN STREAM S/W APPROACHING THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SUN.THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENTWITH THE SFC LOW PLACEMENT AND MAGNITUDE SUN INTO TUE. THE 00Z GGEMIS STILL SHOWING THE MILLER/B SOLN WHICH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORELIKE A POSSIBLE OUTLIER.IN ANY CASE...THE LATE WEEKEND INTO MON LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE WINTERWEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THETHERMAL/MASS FIELDS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SUN OR EARLYMON...WITH SOME -RA/IP MIX TO SET THINGS OFF ACROSS THE NON/MTNS.MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KCLT INDICATE A DEEP NEAR ZERO ISOTHERMAL LAYERDEVELOPING AROUND NOON WITH A DISTINCT DEFORMATION SIGNATURE ATH85/H8. SO...THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR ANOTHER SIGNIF SNOW EVENTACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THEPATTERN TO SHIFT OR BECOME SUPPRESSED DEPENDING ON THE HEMISPHERICBLOCKING PATTERNS AND THE SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF THE PAC JET INTOTHE WRN CONUS...SO THE LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS INCREASING FROM THESOUTH WILL BE KEPT AS IS. AN EXTENDED NW FLOW EVENT LOOKS TO FOLLOWTHE SYNOPTIC EVENT AND SNOW COULD STILL BE FALLING THROUGH WEDACROSS MOST OF THE NC MTN UPSLOPE REGIONS.MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THEPERIOD. A VERY STRONG CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THENRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES MON WILL FILTER VERY LOW THETA/E AIRACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIX INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THEEXT PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Morning all, I've read the threads and am wondering if this is typical disco everyone seems to be going run to runn and heading for the cliffs. I'm trying to keep a clear head about this and wait till were closer to Sunday befor getting excited. Anything that is frozen is great for me and powerstroke but I waiting to get closer to Sunday and see what happens. ( This is just a note to try to bring some folks back to reality and away from the cliffs.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Morning all, I've read the threads and am wondering if this is typical disco everyone seems to be going run to runn and heading for the cliffs. I'm trying to keep a clear head about this and wait till were closer to Sunday befor getting excited. Anything that is frozen is great for me and powerstroke but I waiting to get closer to Sunday and see what happens. ( This is just a note to try to bring some folks back to reality and away from the cliffs.) Where is Knightsdale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very interesting. At 102 hours, the Euro and Canadian are in terrific agreement with the southern branch feature....closed, negative tilt located a little NW of Greenville, MS. The GFS is way, way weaker with the feature at that point. From that point, the Euro and Canadian weaken the disturbance with the Euro keeping it a little farther south than the Canadian, but they are really in fairly good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very interesting. At 102 hours, the Euro and Canadian are in terrific agreement with the southern branch feature....closed, negative tilt located a little NW of Greenville, MS. The GFS is way, way weaker with the feature at that point. From that point, the Euro and Canadian weaken the disturbance with the Euro keeping it a little farther south than the Canadian, but they are really in fairly good agreement. Low should roll between the Euro and the Canadian IMO; I agree with the thinking that someplace in the Southeast is going to get a bad ice storm and there will also be an area of pretty heavy snow; which, is bad enough but what ever falls is going to stay around for a long time - by Southern standards, which in itself will be news worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Knightdale is in North Carolina Where is Knightsdale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For Randolph County/Triad: Where we are at as of Thursday a.m. GFS & CAN give us a foot + of snow Euro 6-8, possibly higher because of outstanding ratios(to early to try and figure out. Basically a SE winter storm is on the way. Pattern screams for it and all models suport this.Kudos to Allan for calling Sun/Mon out last weekend just off pattern recognition. The biggest factor to be decided over the next several days is laid out perfectly in Phils post. People need to go back and read it. We are gonna get the straight miller A approach like the euro is saying and the first wave is gonna do the trick w/o being captured by the rockies 2cnd wave or we are gonna get a hybird miller A/Bish' where the first wave dampens/ slows down and gets phased by the second wave like the GFS/Can are showing. Eitheir solution is gonna bring a minimum 6 inch snow to the immediate/southern triad. It has bigger implications to the southern SE crowd because of mixing issues and the MA/NE crowd between getting a Noreaster thump and nothing. This the trend to watch and see which side in model world has it figured out best over the next few days. Bottom line is a big winter storm is on the way for the SE, just remains to be seen in what type of shape or fashion. The ensembles can provide big clues for which way the pendellum may swing. Another important item to ponder, it is gonna be bone chilling,Vodka cold for a long time after our storm passes. The weather you get in the SE Ice, snow or both, we'll be around and causing serious disruptions for a long stretch of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know everyone is excited about the storm but the cold potential behind this is unlike anything we have seen here in the south since at least 89 probably more in line with the early 80s. The 2m temperature charts from 00z Euro show a low of -5 to -10 for Tupelo and Muscle Shoals and below 0 in Huntsville, Chatt, Memphis and Nash....This is certainly dependent on the snow laid down by the storm early in the week...The air mass following late next weekend looks epic if it unloads on us. Take care of your pipes...Many of you have no idea what it is like to have to deal with this. It has been a long time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know everyone is excited about the storm but the cold potential behind this is unlike anything we have seen here in the south since at least 89 probably more in line with the early 80s. The 2m temperature charts from 00z Euro show a low of -5 to -10 for Tupelo and Muscle Shoals and below 0 in Huntsville, Chatt, Memphis and Nash....This is certainly dependent on the snow laid down by the storm early in the week...The air mass following late next weekend looks epic if it unloads on us. Take care of your pipes...Many of you have no idea what it is like to have to deal with this. It has been a long time.... Yes, trying to repair a broken pipe that is still frozen isn't easy, and this is coming from someone who repaired water mains for a decade. 6z GFS shows that CAE won't get out of the low to mid 30's from the onset of the storm until the following Saturday. It also shows quite a few below zero temps at the end of the run, but we all know what that part of the GFS is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just had a look at the Euro and am still impressed with the big picture. Snow will have already streaked very far east ahead of the system in Texas so I bet the models are all being too slow from N. Ga to the Carolinas on its arrival. Every system I looked at with this upper level look has the precip further east than shown. Either way though, I'm very excited for a big snow in Arkansas, eastward to Tenn and NC, upper SC, N. GA N. Al and N. Miss. . Unfortunately there's going to be a bad icestorm just south of the snow line. It looks like an early 80's Winter storm with about everything in it, but perhaps more moisture than many of those with many areas going over 1.0" liquid equivalent btwn I-20 and I-40. Pretty soon we'll have a much steadier hold on this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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