Rob Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 People in Nashville area jumping for joy over this run. On to the next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0 UTC ECMWF Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 H108, 0c runs from columbia to just north of atlanta, another 0.25 for north ga and the upstate. 0.10 to 0.25 amounts extend back across all of tennessee. Not much into nc yet. Low is centered in southern alabama. 0c remains roughly the same at hour 114. In total, 0.75 to 1.00 across north Ga and greater than 0.50 for alabama, ms, and about 60% of Tn. NC has 0.50 amounts from near asheville/hickory to wilington..0.25 or less north of there. So tn folks, rejoice the euro is showing you some love lol So the same folks that got the most on the Xmas/Boxing day storm get nailed again. No fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I take that it is too warm for North Alabama too..?? Why do people like you ask this question when I just described what it showed? Atlanta is not northern alabama and Not to sound rude or anything but Is reading comprehension this bad in america these days? Questions like this drive people up the wall when your answer is right in front of your face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Better breakdown for the CAE area: around .80 QPF total. .30 = Possible Ice .39 = Snow .11 = Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol..not sure why you are being so pessimistic. I'm guessing based on the gfs but the warm nose is centered right at 850mb so it's probably just barely above 0c in atlanta...but not before several inches fall. At worst, atlanta gets 2 to 4 with a healthy helping of sleet or freezing rain..the surface freezing line is south of atlanta the entire time. The bigger concern to me is that this may be a trend (low further north, weaker ridging of the high into the SE, higher 500 mb heights. warmer 850's) which would mean even warmer runs to follow. I've been noticing gradual warming on the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I take that it is too warm for North Alabama too..?? No, some sleet, but mostly snow at Huntsville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Better breakdown for the CAE area: around .80 QPF total. .30 = Possible Ice .39 = Snow .11 = Rain Well...hopefully things trend back better for us on the 12z. At least I hope anyways. Not digging the trends right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking at raw text off of the accupro site.... .96" QPF looks** (can't see all levels, but 2m and 850 are safely below 0c) ALL SNOW from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking at raw text off of the accupro site.... .96" QPF looks** (can't see all levels, but 2m and 850 are safely below 0c) ALL SNOW from what I can see. What area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why do people like you ask this question when I just described what it showed? Atlanta is not northern alabama and Not to sound rude or anything but Is reading comprehension this bad in america these days? Questions like this drive people up the wall when your answer is right in front of your face. Well let's see I don't know a whole lot about the euro.. I do know how to read GFS and most the other models.. I have been on other forums and they help people understand this a whole lot better.. I guess I should have known better to ask a question on this forum. I guess this forum isn't for people to learn... SORRY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The bigger concern to me is that this may be a trend, which would mean even warmer runs to follow. I've been noticing gradual warming on the model consensus. Agree 100%. The GGEM has been saying this all along and at this point I think 2-4" is the best ATL sees, not the worst. Living here makes me naturally pessimistic- I knew I got too excited earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol..not sure why you are being so pessimistic. I'm guessing based on the gfs but the warm nose is centered right at 850mb so it's probably just barely above 0c in atlanta...but not before several inches fall. At worst, atlanta gets 2 to 4 with a healthy helping of sleet or freezing rain..the surface freezing line is south of atlanta the entire time. While I would love to have the Euro show another run of 12" w/ temps in the mid 20's, this is Georgia. All things considered, all of us have a great deal of potential on the table here. Models are in fairly good agreement on a winter storm with a pretty healthly amounts of precip. No models showing a lakes cutter or a Cuba cutter. I will take the evening model runs and go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 shoot....SORRY that is for GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well let's see I don't know a whole lot about the euro.. I do know how to read GFS and most the other models.. I have been on other forums and they help people understand this a whole lot better.. I guess I should have known better to ask a question on this forum. I guess this forum isn't for people to learn... SORRY! Why is everyone jumping all over everyone? I think everyone's feeling a little under the weather and annoyed? Let's calm down. This does NOT happen in the SE threads. There is plenty to learn here, Widre just answered a question for me last night almost instantly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Agree 100%. The GGEM has been saying this all along and at this point I think 2-4" is the best ATL sees, not the worst. Living here makes me naturally pessimistic- I knew I got too excited earlier... I agree with this..I think ATL is looking at 2-4" *or something around that* then a ton of sleet and or FZRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Agree 100%. The GGEM has been saying this all along and at this point I think 2-4" is the best ATL sees, not the worst. Living here makes me naturally pessimistic- I knew I got too excited earlier... Do you think there's any chance Atlanta gets primarily a rain event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Do you think there's any chance Atlanta gets primarily a rain event ? Yes. 5 days out there is a chance that anyone sees anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why is everyone jumping all over everyone? I think everyone's feeling a little under the weather and annoyed? Let's calm down. This does NOT happen in the SE threads. There is plenty to learn here, Widre just answered a question for me last night almost instantly! I am not mad.. I guess I should have read the post more clearly.. Sometimes we are all slow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The bigger concern to me is that this may be a trend, which would mean even warmer runs to follow. I've been noticing gradual warming on the model consensus. Meh, color me not really concerned yet. The gfs aloft is not terribly different between the 18z and 0z run..in fact it's actually a little colder for a time vs the 18z run. the canadian is a touch colder here than the 12z run as well. Regardless every model shows a major winter storm for a widespread area..the issue is precip type and amount it would seem. Here is the 0z ggem at 102 vs the 12z run at 108 and 114. I include 108 because that is the height of the storm on the 12z run and takes into account the timing differences between runs. Of course it could all change but I think overall it still looks good to me. This is a number of days away and you can't expect the models to show the exact same best solution every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking at raw text off of the accupro site.... .96" QPF looks** (can't see all levels, but 2m and 850 are safely below 0c) ALL SNOW from what I can see. What does the QPF look like for Asheville, NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Do you think there's any chance Atlanta gets primarily a rain event ? No, that seems unlikely. It could change to rain at some point, but the bulk should be some sort of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What does the QPF look like for Asheville, NC? ~.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well let's see I don't know a whole lot about the euro.. I do know how to read GFS and most the other models.. I have been on other forums and they help people understand this a whole lot better.. I guess I should have known better to ask a question on this forum. I guess this forum isn't for people to learn... SORRY! Good grief. Someone help me find the words for this...all i can do is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ~.75" Hate to ask about QPF also but how does it look for Raleigh-Durham and what precipitation type are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Meh, color me not really concerned yet. Aren't we entering the traditional Day 3/4 model eclipse anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 roughly .45" qpf for RDU...some snow and or sleet it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good grief. Someone help me find the words for this...all i can do is LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ~.75" Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Agree 100%. The GGEM has been saying this all along and at this point I think 2-4" is the best ATL sees, not the worst. Living here makes me naturally pessimistic- I knew I got too excited earlier... Well I'm going to have to disagree with you. I see nothing tonight that really makes me believe atlanta does any worse than 2 to 4 and If you are looking for an ALL snow event in atlanta itself, you probably will be dissappointed but getting slammed with sleet/fz rain after several inches of snow isn't small potatoes. Plus when folks start talking like this you get people thinking there is suddenly something terribly wrong and we are going to be totally screwed out of anything when that is simply not the case. Just my 2 cents though and I understand your frustration since it seems atlanta finds a way to get less snow than anyone else of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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