WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html weak surface reflection going into the Cumberland Plateau supports a mixed bag I am crying in greenville,nc right now Stop with the imby crap Millz, take it to general banter as it does not belong here. Add something constructive to the disco, instead of taking it away. Good Night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow, jeremy wasn't lying about the ggem..it actually is colder for north ga...much better snow wise than I thought looking at those crappy maps. Looks like it starts as sleet/snow before quickly going over to all snow and maybe then ending as a little light sleet/freezing rain for north ga, while staying snow for the upstate/nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree we don't see them too often agree. Now off to bed for me it's going to be a long 4 or 5 days of watching computer models especially when you have to get up in the early morning to go to work. One last thing if I remember correctly '96 was forecasted 5 days out and didn't change that much? That was almost 14 years ago. (wow I'm getting old) so i might be wrong. I remember watching a local on air Met. Rob Roseman every night before that storm occurred and he nailed it dead on the amounts of snow. The TV station even had a slogan that was used for years "ROB WAS RIGHT." So maybe this storm we can all just worry about amounts. Well, look, we all know the typical disclaimers, but it's not often that the GFS, Euro and CMC agree on the overall idea of a southern winter storm in the 4-5-day range. I'm not saying it's a lock or anything, but I think a little bit of excitement is definitely in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree we don't see them too often agree. Now off to bed for me it's going to be a long 4 or 5 days of watching computer models especially when you have to get up in the early morning to go to work. One last thing if I remember correctly '96 was forecasted 5 days out and didn't change that much? That was almost 14 years ago. (wow I'm getting old) so i might be wrong. I remember watching a local on air Met. Rob Roseman every night before that storm occurred and he nailed it dead on the amounts of snow. The TV station even had a slogan that was used for years "ROB WAS RIGHT." So maybe this storm we can all just worry about amounts. Yes, I remember that too. Rob was my favorite TV met back then, I hate He had to leave. Hope to see you soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow, jeremy wasn't lying about the ggem..it actually is colder for north ga...much better snow wise than I thought looking at those crappy maps. Looks like it starts as sleet/snow before quickly going over to all snow and maybe then ending as a little light sleet/freezing rain for north ga, while staying snow for the upstate/nc. Really? I might be missing something but it looks like the 0c line flirts with NC throughout the system per this run of the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 First of all, get your facts straight. We were discussing the ECMWF and not the GFS. Secondly, I'm 100% right, it will not snow in Florida or Colorado or Maine or even Siberia with 850 temps of 7C. This simply isnt the sort of event that will bring snow to the gulf coast, it's pure pattern recognition more than looking at a model. Yes, you and the other poster were discussing the ECMWF snowfall (from two different sources.) He quoted from his paid source and you stomped on him - claiming it couldn't snow with 850 temps of 7C. I assumed you used GFS data for your 850 temps being that's easier than what's free from the ECMWF; logical, but perhaps a wrong assumption. Whatever the case, whether you or others...it's still a bit irritating to see "know it all" type convictions about weather that's days away. Not a big deal....just a comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0z Euro has initialized. Let's see what it does with our storm from here. This should be a fun and interesting run for sure after what we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes, you and the other poster were discussing the ECMWF snowfall (from two different sources.) He quoted from his paid source and you stomped on him - claiming it couldn't snow with 850 temps of 7C. I assumed you used GFS data for your 850 temps being that's easier than what's free from the ECMWF; logical, but perhaps a wrong assumption. Whatever the case, whether you or others...it's still a bit irritating to see "know it all" type convictions about weather that's days away. Not a big deal....just a comment. That's not a "know it all" type post. He was stating fact from a particular model output. The post that annoy me are the ones made be people stating false information. For example, "the euro shows snow all the way to the gulf coast" when, in fact, it does not. Same for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0 UTC ECMWF Hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know it is still early yet and 12 days away but has anyone looked at what the 00z GFS is doing for North Carolina and the Southeast on or about the 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's not a "know it all" type post. He was stating fact from a particular model output. The post that annoy me are the ones made be people stating false information. For example, "the euro shows snow all the way to the gulf coast" when, in fact, it does not. Same for the GFS. Something is wrong with the Euro snowfall maps on the accuwx site anyway. It wasn't showing nearly enough snow depth for anyone. Just a big blob of 1" or something like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes, you and the other poster were discussing the ECMWF snowfall (from two different sources.) He quoted from his paid source and you stomped on him - claiming it couldn't snow with 850 temps of 7C. I assumed you used GFS data for your 850 temps being that's easier than what's free from the ECMWF; logical, but perhaps a wrong assumption. Whatever the case, whether you or others...it's still a bit irritating to see "know it all" type convictions about weather that's days away. Not a big deal....just a comment. That's not a "know it all" type post. He was stating fact from a particular model output. The post that annoy me are the ones made be people stating false information. For example, "the euro shows snow all the way to the gulf coast" when, in fact, it does not. Same for the GFS. We don't do this type of crap here. Either cut it out or move to the mid-atlantic. We have a storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0 UTC ECMWF Hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interesting what Conservative KILM Short/Long range AFD says... Valid 1235 am EST Thursday Jan 6 2011 && Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... as of 3 PM Wednesday...surface wave will be accelerating off the coast at the start of the period and deep moisture will have have shifted well to the south. Rain chances appear to only warrant slight chance wording first half of the day and the afternoon looks dry. Strong trailing vorticity maximum around 06z Friday. Guidance hinting that this could lead to sprinkle/flurries over northernmost zones but forecast soundings look awfully dry and will cap probability of precipitation at slight chance at this time. High temperatures Thursday within a degree or two of 50 and lows within a few degree of freezing. Fairly strong cold front comes through on Friday. Strong upper vorticity Friday night also could also cause some flurries. Moisture showing up in guidance with this one pretty scant and probably even overdone with guidance. Another strong trailing vorticity Friday night could conceivably bring chance of flurries again but will leave out this time on account of lower anticipated moisture. (EDIT: the *dry slot* that was talked about a few pages back?) && Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... as of 3 PM Wednesday...confidence remains low concerning what impact a southern stream system will have on the region early next week. Upper pattern transitions from longwave trough over the eastern Continental U.S. To flat progressive flow Sat into sun. Shortwave moving across the southwest develops a surface low which starts to deepen as these features move over the western Gulf of Mexico. Starting to see a little more agreement on timing between the 12z GFS/ECMWF...the main difference now is the track of the surface low as well as the strength of the low. Both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep the low off the coast...as does the latest from HPC. This would likely result in some frozen precipitation...probably snow...for at least part of the area. Extent of snow vs snow/rain mix will depend on how close the low and its warm air pass. For now have added a rain/snow mix for Sun night and Monday morning...but this is likely to change. Confidence is high on temperatures remain below climatology through the period. Southern branch of jet stream will remain suppressed south of the region through the period which will ensure cold air masses remain in place. current Obs 44.4 °F OvercastWindchill:40 °F Humidity:100%Dew Point:44 °F Wind: 7.0 mph from the North window.wind_animate['CONDBOXWIND']=new WindRotate("condboxArrowDiv",14,352); Wind Gust:8.9 mph Pressure:29.74 in (Steady) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Euro to 72- SW system a tad slower, northern jet not as far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0 UTC ECMWF Day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We don't do this type of crap here. Either cut it out or move to the mid-atlantic. We have a storm to track. Agreed. This discussion ends now. Personally, I wish people would stop worrying about these stupid snow maps. They are garbage 99% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Euro to 72- SW system a tad slower, northern jet not as far south. This looks like it will be a warmer run than the 12Z Wed. Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This looks like it will be a warmer run than the 12Z Wed. Euro. Lordy, it did at first but through hour 96 big blob of heavy precip in the lower ms valley with wetbulbing bringing the 0c 850 line well south into ms/al The low is about 50 miles (?) maybe further north than the 12z run at the same time but looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0 UTC ECMWF Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 H102. 0c 850mb line runs from roughly augusta to columbus to BHM, sort of juts north a little along the ms/al border before going back south. 0.25 to 0.50 across north Ga so far..all snow. Precip extends a ways back into ms/al. This is a touch warmer btw than the 12z run so larry is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lordy, it did at first but through hour 96 big blob of heavy precip in the lower ms valley with wetbulbing bringing the 0c 850 line well south into ms/al The low is about 50 miles (?) maybe further north than the 12z run at the same time but looking good so far. The 850 0C line is about 100 miles further north than the prior run as of 108 hours. Let's hope this is not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 850 0C line is about 100 miles further north than the prior run as of 108 hours. Let's hope this is not a trend. 06z Monday.. ice.. freaking ice for cae. man. i DO NOT want this. then it switches over to snow.. then ends as ice again.. man this is going to be a super mess. I'm going generator shopping in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0 UTC ECMWF Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Congrats far north GA and TN, evap cooling may bring some snow here at the start, but the 6" plus hope is fading fast. It figures, another semi-screw here. This will have to be the third time that I will have to drive to see the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hows the precip into NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 H108, 0c runs from columbia to just north of atlanta, another 0.25 for north ga and the upstate. 0.10 to 0.25 amounts extend back across all of tennessee. Not much into nc yet. Low is centered in southern alabama. 0c remains roughly the same at hour 114. In total, 0.75 to 1.00 across north Ga and greater than 0.50 for alabama, ms, and about 60% of Tn. NC has 0.50 amounts from near asheville/hickory to wilington..0.25 or less north of there. So tn folks, rejoice the euro is showing you some love lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Congrats far north GA and TN, evap cooling may bring some snow here at the start, but the 6" plus hope is fading fast. It figures, another semi-screw here. This will have to be the third time that I will have to drive to see the heaviest snow. I take that it is too warm for North Alabama too..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What is really interesting actually is the massive difference with this system after it exits the SE- the GGEM and GFS all have a good nor'easter, the Euro is no precip north of southern VA. They must be really freaking up there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Congrats far north GA and TN, evap cooling may bring some snow here at the start, but the 6" plus hope is fading fast. It figures, another semi-screw here. This will have to be the third time that I will have to drive to see the heaviest snow. lol..not sure why you are being so pessimistic. I'm guessing based on the gfs but the warm nose is centered right at 850mb so it's probably just barely above 0c in atlanta...but not before several inches fall. At worst, atlanta gets 2 to 4 with a healthy helping of sleet or freezing rain..the surface freezing line is south of atlanta the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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