tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Evidently a primary that goes into TN or Kentucky that is weak is not a Miller B. This is per DT and I certainly didn't know this, but just wanted to pass this along. Looks like it still has the effect to screw those south of TN whether a Miller B or not though. Look at all that JUICE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, look, we all know the typical disclaimers, but it's not often that the GFS, Euro and CMC agree on the overall idea of a southern winter storm in the 4-5-day range. I'm not saying it's a lock or anything, but I think a little bit of excitement is definitely in order. Yep, next run it will indeed! This is about the time the GFS starts it's slow decent into the dark abyss of stupidity ( day 4 or 5 GFS loses it usually) but enjoy it because this will be the last time you have that calm feeling that it is going to snow, until 48 hrs before the storm when it brings it back to this solution! It has happened every winter storm for the last 2 years in these parts! If i were in SC, GA I would start seeing how much a generator cost, and keeping an eye on this storm because it's impact on you guys could be historic and not in a good way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Guys, please do NOT post these huge images of the ggem or the large images from ncep. It's getting a little annoying having to repeat this and it's trying my patience. Sorry, I will just post the links form now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The purdy canadian maps show basically the same SN/ICE lines as the GFS. In fact, there's heavier snow deeper into SC on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The purdy canadian maps show basically the same SN/ICE lines as the GFS. In fact, there's heavier snow deeper into SC on the GGEM. Thats surprising with the more miller b look. Its got one low going up into eastern kentucky, I would think that should almost guarentee too warm for snow east of the apps but what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thats surprising with the more miller b look. Its got one low going up into eastern kentucky, I would think that should almost guarentee too warm for snow east of the apps but what do I know its so weak that its not the primary not a true miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 The purdy canadian maps show basically the same SN/ICE lines as the GFS. In fact, there's heavier snow deeper into SC on the GGEM. MOre or less.. despite the double barrel low, the wedge holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It must suck living on the coast and wanting to see snow....I wouldn't do it .....BUT.....you get really nice beaches to visit and great front row seats to some tropical weather. It's not totally bad!!! True It can be difficult when I'm the only one from this region on here, but there is nowhere else to go to ask about winter wx for this area lol. Here is a sounding just NW of Mobile Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 snowfall maps from the GFS but only to 120 hours: RAH GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 MOre or less.. despite the double barrel low, the wedge holds. And we hold as all snow for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thats surprising with the more miller b look. Its got one low going up into eastern kentucky, I would think that should almost guarentee too warm for snow east of the apps but what do I know I'm w/ tnweathernut. A Miller B is energy that slides in the northern stream, jumps to the coast, and bombs out around the MA. Correct? This is more like a piece of energy running up west of the Apps and another piece getting sent into the Piedmont. Major set-up in the making. QueenCityWx, will that stay cold enough in the TN Valley or does a warm nose accompany that energy up west of the Apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey Ivan, I know what it's like to be an outsider on here. I'm one of the very few on here from my area. Oh, and happy 24th birthday !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm w/ tnweathernut. A Miller B is energy that slides in the northern stream, jumps to the coast, and bombs out around the MA. Correct? This is more like a piece of energy running up west of the Apps and another piece getting sent into the Piedmont. Major set-up in the making. QueenCityWx, will that stay cold enough in the TN Valley or does a warm nose accompany that energy up west of the Apps? Green never enters TN...there is some yellow down around Tullahoma and the border counties to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm w/ tnweathernut. A Miller B is energy that slides in the northern stream, jumps to the coast, and bombs out around the MA. Correct? This is more like a piece of energy running up west of the Apps and another piece getting sent into the Piedmont. Major set-up in the making. QueenCityWx, will that stay cold enough in the TN Valley or does a warm nose accompany that energy up west of the Apps? You may be right Im not sure on the exact definition was just refering to the double low structure. It should be watched which low trends stronger in future runs, if the inland one ends up stronger it will really screw things for everyone really. Right now the GGEM is the only one even really showing this so not too worried about that happening yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 snowfall maps from the GFS but only to 120 hours: RAH GSP I guess 2 to 3 is a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm w/ tnweathernut. A Miller B is energy that slides in the northern stream, jumps to the coast, and bombs out around the MA. Correct? This is more like a piece of energy running up west of the Apps and another piece getting sent into the Piedmont. Major set-up in the making. QueenCityWx, will that stay cold enough in the TN Valley or does a warm nose accompany that energy up west of the Apps? If anything it is a hybrid... If we were talking a true A there would be dominant RN-SN p-types, with quick transitions. In this case, there has been immense talk, as well as model support, for a sig swath of ZR and IP which suggests a non-typical southern stream Gulf low interacting with a northern stream vort, yielding a weak surface reflection in E TN that than transfers to the area of lp left meandering off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm w/ tnweathernut. A Miller B is energy that slides in the northern stream, jumps to the coast, and bombs out around the MA. Correct? This is more like a piece of energy running up west of the Apps and another piece getting sent into the Piedmont. Major set-up in the making. QueenCityWx, will that stay cold enough in the TN Valley or does a warm nose accompany that energy up west of the Apps? Miller B is coastal redevelopment off a warm front. Miller A is a low which rides up the baroclinic front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Green never enters TN...there is some yellow down around Tullahoma and the border counties to the east. May not be following you on this one Queencitywx...We may be talking apples and oranges here, but the 108hr map has dark green over NE TN and yellow over middle. Ok, I'm sure I'm not getting the point. Might need some help on this one. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Look man, I dont know what you're not understanding here. I dont give a crap what some snowfall map shows, you arent getting snow with +7C 850 temps in FLORIDA. I'm glad you don't live on the coast....'cause I sure wouldn't want to hear what a four or five days away hurricane couldn't do...all based on the GFS. Point being obviously...it's a bit irritating to see people acting like any model (much less the GFS) is so frigging almighty at this range. It's fun...it's exciting...but crimany...let's not act like we know everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 May not be following you on this one Queencitywx...We may be talking apples and oranges here, but the 108hr map has dark green over NE TN and yellow over middle. Ok, I'm sure I'm not getting the point. Might need some help on this one. Thanks in advance. ptypes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm glad you don't live on the coast....'cause I sure wouldn't want to hear what a four or five days away hurricane couldn't do...all based on the GFS. Point being obviously...it's a bit irritating to see people acting like any model (much less the GFS) is so frigging almighty at this range. It's fun...it's exciting...but crimany...let's not act like we know everything. First of all, get your facts straight. We were discussing the ECMWF and not the GFS. Secondly, I'm 100% right, it will not snow in Florida or Colorado or Maine or even Siberia with 850 temps of 7C. This simply isnt the sort of event that will bring snow to the gulf coast, it's pure pattern recognition more than looking at a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm glad you don't live on the coast....'cause I sure wouldn't want to hear what a four or five days away hurricane couldn't do...all based on the GFS. Point being obviously...it's a bit irritating to see people acting like any model (much less the GFS) is so frigging almighty at this range. It's fun...it's exciting...but crimany...let's not act like we know everything. whoa now.. this is all based on the 12z Euro. It obviously isn't showing anything close to a snow profile in Florida. That's is not to say that it won't snow at all, though the odds are stacked against it as it seems now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am crying in greenville,nc right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ptypes Got it. Thanks. I was thinking qpf. Appreciate your input as well as others tonight. I'm off to bed. Work tomorrow. Have a good evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am crying in greenville,nc right now I am crying in greenville, sc right now Not sure what that has to do with this thread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 what's the link for the GEM/RGEM precip type hourly loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Got it. Thanks. I was thinking qpf. Appreciate your input as well as others tonight. I'm off to bed. Work tomorrow. Have a good evening. Check the Ewall site. Your 850 temps stay below freezing the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What's all this crying about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what's the link for the GEM/RGEM precip type hourly loop? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Man does that look sweet ! Thanks for the lynk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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