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The Jan 9-11 Storm


Wow

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It's one run of the GFS. It looks good for some and dung for others. I cannot pull for this solution but I'd be really interested what the EURO says. If this ice storm solution is what the EURO shows, I'm going to be one of the milk and bread knuckleheads you always see on your local ABC affiliate.

I told WxinCanton not to park his mini van there!

post-589-0-59157100-1294289456.jpg

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:38 AM, FoothillsNC said:

Now the question is this run close to being accurate? Its quite a bit warmer than the higher resolution Euro at that frame, but because it moves the northeast system out quicker i think and maintains more northern track with the southern low, and stalls it. How often do we see a low and warm advection precip last so long in this part of the country?

Do you think it's to quick in shearing out the lead 500mb VM? Virtually disapears in the 96-102 time frame. With the last storm still fresh in my memory, this just doesn't look right.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:46 AM, DCMetroWinston said:

Katie bar the door, the Winter Hawk is about to be unleashed!

I prefer the Winter Turkey, but regardless.. it'll get brutally cold afterwards with grandaddy high moving in. Are those subzero surface temps over W NC I see?

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:53 AM, Ivanhater said:

I don't want to derail the thread by going back and forth. If you want, I will PM you the Euro snowfall map. Regardless, the 00z GFS shows snow all the way to the Gulf coast

Look man, I dont know what you're not understanding here. I dont give a crap what some snowfall map shows, you arent getting snow with +7C 850 temps in FLORIDA.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:53 AM, Ivanhater said:

I don't want to derail the thread by going back and forth. If you want, I will PM you the Euro snowfall map. Regardless, the 00z GFS shows snow all the way to the Gulf coast

GFS_3_2011010600_F102_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Not sure what goes into that map, but I can tell you with certainty, that the GFS soundings do not support snow that far south. GFS is very much an ice threat which extends as far south as south central AL.

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GFS looks great but it worries me how close this already is for snow in Charlotte 5 days out. 850s creep up to almost 0 C during the height of the storm. If this were to come just a little further north with the 850 low it would be alot more ice than snow (I.E GGEM scenario)

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:38 AM, FoothillsNC said:

Now the question is this run close to being accurate? Its quite a bit warmer than the higher resolution Euro at that frame, but because it moves the northeast system out quicker i think and maintains more northern track with the southern low, and stalls it. How often do we see a low and warm advection precip last so long in this part of the country?

I asked a similar but briefer question (timing of the cold) and my post was deleted in the blink of an eye. Odd.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:56 AM, Lookout said:

Guys, please do NOT post these huge images of the ggem or the large images from ncep. It's getting a little annoying having to repeat this and it's trying my patience.

Fixed, thought it just applied to the m & l NCEP maps, but dually noted on the CMC extra large B & W's. :)

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:57 AM, WhiteoutWX said:

GFS looks great but it worries me how close this already is for snow in Charlotte 5 days out. 850s creep up to almost 0 C during the height of the storm. If this were to come just a little further north with the 850 low it would be alot more ice than snow (I.E GGEM scenario)

Couldn't agree more. Euro has been colder, so hope it holds serve. Good gracious we've got a long way to go though.

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Yep, next run it will indeed! This is about the time the GFS starts it's slow decent into the dark abyss of stupidity ( day 4 or 5 GFS loses it usually) devilsmiley.gifbut enjoy it because this will be the last time you have that calm feeling that it is going to snow, until 48 hrs before the storm when it brings it back to this solution!Snowman.gif It has happened every winter storm for the last 2 years in these parts! If i were in SC, GA I would start seeing how much a generator cost, and

keeping an eye on this storm because it's impact on you guys could be historic and not in a good way!devilsmiley.gif

  On 1/6/2011 at 4:38 AM, POWERSTROKE said:

It is the GFS and still 5-6 days a wayrolleyes.gif It will change before next weekpopcorn.gif

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  On 1/6/2011 at 5:01 AM, packbacker said:

Yeah, that would not be good for most of us (outside the mtns). I am guessing we need the NE vortex to hang out a little longer.

Is it that or is it sending a faint signature(sorry, don't know the true term) of a low up west w/ the main energy heading around the base of the Apps. I can't tell.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 4:59 AM, Ivanhater said:

That is odd both the GFS and Euro snowfall maps would show snow. :rolleyes: Admittedly, looking at the 850mb, I don't see how it snows either.

It must suck living on the coast and wanting to see snow....I wouldn't do it .....BUT.....you get really nice beaches to visit and great front row seats to some tropical weather. It's not totally bad!!! :guitar:

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