DixieBlizzard Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's one run of the GFS. It looks good for some and dung for others. I cannot pull for this solution but I'd be really interested what the EURO says. If this ice storm solution is what the EURO shows, I'm going to be one of the milk and bread knuckleheads you always see on your local ABC affiliate. I told WxinCanton not to park his mini van there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Haven't we covered this already? Some low-res snowfall map doesn't mean anything if the numbers don't add up. Let it go already! Sheesh! I have seen the accuweather Euro snowfall map and it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have seen the accuweather Euro snowfall map and it does If you can figure out how to get accumulating snow with surface temperatures at 6.8C and 850's at +7, please let me know. That would make our lives so much easier in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL -- GGEM actually wetter than 12z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GGEM darn near idential to 0z GFS by a quick look over at 84 The GFS is like someone gave us the crayons...we dont make it out of the 20's after sunday for nearly a full week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Now the question is this run close to being accurate? Its quite a bit warmer than the higher resolution Euro at that frame, but because it moves the northeast system out quicker i think and maintains more northern track with the southern low, and stalls it. How often do we see a low and warm advection precip last so long in this part of the country? Do you think it's to quick in shearing out the lead 500mb VM? Virtually disapears in the 96-102 time frame. With the last storm still fresh in my memory, this just doesn't look right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GGEM darn near idential to 0z GFS by a quick look over at 84 Hybrid Miller AB, which supports a widespread bag of mixed wintery wtf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Katie bar the door, the Winter Hawk is about to be unleashed! I prefer the Winter Turkey, but regardless.. it'll get brutally cold afterwards with grandaddy high moving in. Are those subzero surface temps over W NC I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS gives me a surface temperature of 3º at 0z on Friday. 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't want to derail the thread by going back and forth. If you want, I will PM you the Euro snowfall map. Regardless, the 00z GFS shows snow all the way to the Gulf coast Look man, I dont know what you're not understanding here. I dont give a crap what some snowfall map shows, you arent getting snow with +7C 850 temps in FLORIDA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Guys, please do NOT post these huge images of the ggem or the large images from ncep. It's getting a little annoying having to repeat this and it's trying my patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the GGEM is Miller B ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So, does the Canadian send a piece of energy up west of the Apps? That run is a mess - sleet/snow/freezing rain for the TN Valley. But yes, very much like the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't want to derail the thread by going back and forth. If you want, I will PM you the Euro snowfall map. Regardless, the 00z GFS shows snow all the way to the Gulf coast Not sure what goes into that map, but I can tell you with certainty, that the GFS soundings do not support snow that far south. GFS is very much an ice threat which extends as far south as south central AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS is like someone gave us the crayons...we dont make it out of the 20's after sunday for nearly a full week. Hide ya kids, Hide ya wife, and hide ya husband too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 GGEM really wraps it up early and pulls the low way north. Still wallops W NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS looks great but it worries me how close this already is for snow in Charlotte 5 days out. 850s creep up to almost 0 C during the height of the storm. If this were to come just a little further north with the 850 low it would be alot more ice than snow (I.E GGEM scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS warms me up above freezing by 0z Sunday...a full week after going below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That is odd both the GFS and Euro snowfall maps would show snow. Admittedly, looking at the 850mb, I don't see how it snows either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Now the question is this run close to being accurate? Its quite a bit warmer than the higher resolution Euro at that frame, but because it moves the northeast system out quicker i think and maintains more northern track with the southern low, and stalls it. How often do we see a low and warm advection precip last so long in this part of the country? I asked a similar but briefer question (timing of the cold) and my post was deleted in the blink of an eye. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is it a Miller B, or does the southern stream get pulled back by some northern stream energy? It is actually similar to the Canadian at 12z IMO. W/ the NAO heading for neutral, is the storm reacting by trending inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Guys, please do NOT post these huge images of the ggem or the large images from ncep. It's getting a little annoying having to repeat this and it's trying my patience. Fixed, thought it just applied to the m & l NCEP maps, but dually noted on the CMC extra large B & W's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the GGEM is Miller B ish Yeah, that would not be good for most of us (outside the mtns). I am guessing we need the NE vortex to hang out a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GGEM really wraps it up early and pulls the low way north. Still wallops W NC. Yuck...looks icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Canadian color maps rolling out --- I won't post them, but JUST ON THE 108 HOUR MAP ALONE, entire state of S.C. is covered by 15-25 mm ... northern half of Ga. 15 mm or more ... most of Tennessee over 15 mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS looks great but it worries me how close this already is for snow in Charlotte 5 days out. 850s creep up to almost 0 C during the height of the storm. If this were to come just a little further north with the 850 low it would be alot more ice than snow (I.E GGEM scenario) Couldn't agree more. Euro has been colder, so hope it holds serve. Good gracious we've got a long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep, next run it will indeed! This is about the time the GFS starts it's slow decent into the dark abyss of stupidity ( day 4 or 5 GFS loses it usually) but enjoy it because this will be the last time you have that calm feeling that it is going to snow, until 48 hrs before the storm when it brings it back to this solution! It has happened every winter storm for the last 2 years in these parts! If i were in SC, GA I would start seeing how much a generator cost, and keeping an eye on this storm because it's impact on you guys could be historic and not in a good way! It is the GFS and still 5-6 days a way It will change before next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah, that would not be good for most of us (outside the mtns). I am guessing we need the NE vortex to hang out a little longer. Is it that or is it sending a faint signature(sorry, don't know the true term) of a low up west w/ the main energy heading around the base of the Apps. I can't tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That is odd both the GFS and Euro snowfall maps would show snow. Admittedly, looking at the 850mb, I don't see how it snows either. It must suck living on the coast and wanting to see snow....I wouldn't do it .....BUT.....you get really nice beaches to visit and great front row seats to some tropical weather. It's not totally bad!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Canadian color maps rolling out --- I won't post them, but JUST ON THE 108 HOUR MAP ALONE, entire state of S.C. is covered by 15-25 mm ... northern half of Ga. 15 mm or more ... most of Tennessee over 15 mm. How about AL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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