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The Jan 9-11 Storm


Wow

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:00 PM, FoothillsNC said:

The euro also has light snow over most of the Carolinas tomorrow night, some pockets of 1" maybe in the piedmont. The mtns do very well. Otherwise, no major changes I see unless its the closed low over Arizona (opened up on other models)

Cool! Thanks so much Robert for keeping us updated.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:05 PM, FoothillsNC said:

Bitter cold over Tenn Valley and midatlantic at 60, with -12 to -14 areas. The New Mexico cutoff is stronger than ever, and is opening up at 66.

Did it open previously and then close back off around TX before opening back up as it headed through the deep south? How does this compare to previous runs?

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:05 PM, FoothillsNC said:

Bitter cold over Tenn Valley and midatlantic at 60, with -12 to -14 areas. The New Mexico cutoff is stronger than ever, and is opening up at 66.

We'd definitely see some single digits if this occurs.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:12 PM, Cheeznado said:

84- short weaker and a bit faster, which is good as the GOM surface low is weaker with less warm air moving north

beauty is in the eyes of the beholder cheez..........lol. My friends in the I-40 corridor in mid TN crackin my nads and saying no way are going to have fun with me if this whiffs for them. I don't like it so much.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:13 PM, FoothillsNC said:

at 90, theres a 1008 low over Mobile. and snow most of north half of GA and Ala and southern Tn.By 96, still snowing hard in Atlanta and the Upstate, just geting into NC :snowman:

QPF output is meager at 102. Less than 0.25" over most of NC/SC. I know you shouldn't rely on it at this stage, but all the models are consistent about it now.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:12 PM, Wow said:

by 90 hrs.. precip shield is smaller. surface low weaker. meh. doubt we'll see much in NC from this run

You may be right, but the trend is good. The precip back west in Ark and Miss has expanded greately I think. Also, the 850's are plenty low in GA to the Carolinas. For whatever reason it still dimishes the precip as it comes our way, but seems to be getting heavier further north and east , each run...so thats a trend.

By 102, the low is on SAV and ATL has just warmed to Zero, Still snowing in most of N. Ga and the Carolinas, but lighter compared to the Miss and Al region.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:17 PM, FoothillsNC said:

You may be right, but the trend is good. The precip back west in Ark and Miss has expanded greately I think. Also, the 850's are plenty low in GA to the Carolinas. For whatever reason it still dimishes the precip as it comes our way, but seems to be getting heavier further north and east , each run...so thats a trend.

By 102, the low is on SAV and ATL has just warmed to Zero, Still snowing in most of N. Ga and the Carolinas, but lighter compared to the Miss and Al region.

Robert,

Did you mean east or......... west? It seems precip on the Euro for areas east on the northern side have dropped.

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  On 1/6/2011 at 6:17 PM, FoothillsNC said:

You may be right, but the trend is good. The precip back west in Ark and Miss has expanded greately I think. Also, the 850's are plenty low in GA to the Carolinas. For whatever reason it still dimishes the precip as it comes our way, but seems to be getting heavier further north and east , each run...so thats a trend.

By 102, the low is on SAV and ATL has just warmed to Zero, Still snowing in most of N. Ga and the Carolinas, but lighter compared to the Miss and Al region.

The trend is good for whom? The s/w trended weaker. At best, we'd be on the northern fringe and pick up a few inches based on this trend. Colder trend, yes. More robust s/w with a healthy precip shield, no.

Maybe they're all wrong and the QPF will be much more. I figured that last time for the christmas storm, but was wrong.

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