Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 120 one low off the se coast...the plains energy is over the kansas area moving east...need that plains energy to dive in harder, the hgts are still pretty flat along the east coast. Looks like the GFS depiction of that southern stream energy slowing down for a phase isn't going to happen with the Euro. We'll see what the Plains energy does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Close, but no cigar. Much better..but we struck out with the Euro here. the northern stream energy just seems slower this run, its stronger but slower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the GFS depiction of that southern stream energy slowing down for a phase isn't going to happen with the Euro. We'll see what the Plains energy does... its the northern stream energy, its slower this run compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 we might get some lgt precip with the ull heading eastward...post 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 its the northern stream energy, its slower this run compared to the 12z run. Meh, we're in a solid spot between all of the models at 6 days out. Complete breakdown of the -NAO by 144 on the Euro. Nice -EPO though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's very bad when the euro shows a total miss, the other models tend to trend toward the euro. The models went toward the euro with the last storm too. The euro also shows very little with the Friday storm, but other models show little too so that's not a big deal. It would be unfortunate to miss out on both events, but there's nothing we can do about it. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its also very bad when the model with a progressive SE bias shows this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's very bad when the euro shows a total miss, the other models tend to trend toward the euro. The models went toward the euro with the last storm too. The euro also shows very little with the Friday storm, but other models show little too so that's not a big deal. It would be unfortunate to miss out on both events, but there's nothing we can do about it. Only time will tell. Wrong. Just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 162 has the ull coming into the area with some lgt precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's very bad when the euro shows a total miss, the other models tend to trend toward the euro. The models went toward the euro with the last storm too. The euro also shows very little with the Friday storm, but other models show little too so that's not a big deal. It would be unfortunate to miss out on both events, but there's nothing we can do about it. Only time will tell. They went towards the ECM and we got 20-30"...Hmmm! ECM shows .25" QPF with the Friday Norlun...this is probably going to be a 2-4" event for most people with a small stripe of 6" accumulations. That's a fine event especially a couple weeks after a major blizzard. Still plenty of hope for the Miller A as well, ECM trended better at H5 with higher heights in the East and a stronger southern shortwave. That's all you can ask at 5 days out...the last Blizzard wasn't decided until less than 48 hours from the start. So why be so negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 some lgt precip from m/d line south at hr 168...looks like the euro is trying to do some kind of inverted trof trying to reach back towards jerz coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its also very bad when the model with a progressive SE bias shows this.. You know what else has a progressive SE bias? The NOGAPS Ensemble, which is in strong agreement with the OP. Not that it matters that much. We're still at 6 days out and there's a reason some on here call it the LOLGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's very bad when the euro shows a total miss, the other models tend to trend toward the euro. The models went toward the euro with the last storm too. The euro also shows very little with the Friday storm, but other models show little too so that's not a big deal. It would be unfortunate to miss out on both events, but there's nothing we can do about it. Only time will tell. Relax it is close and has plenty of time to change over..If it is consistently showing a Miss up until Sunday or Monday than I might write it off but there was more positives than Negatives for sure tonight in regards to nest weeks storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You know what else has a progressive SE bias? The NOGAPS Ensemble, which is in strong agreement with the OP. Not that it matters that much. We're still at 6 days out and there's a reason some on here call it the LOLGAPS. Alot of the pro mets I have seen on this forum actually use it to flag the other guidance because of that bias! I would not call it the LOLGAPS because its been pretty much accurate with flagging models this season.... Edited to add that at day 6 its actually only a notch below the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Alot of the pro mets I have seen on this forum actually use it to flag the other guidance because of that bias! I would not call it the LOLGAPS because its been pretty much accurate with flagging models this season.... Oh yeah I completely understand its use regarding that. I'm just saying it's one of those...how do I put it.... " troubled " models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh yeah I completely understand its use regarding that. I'm just saying it's one of those...how do I put it.... " troubled " models. I edited to show as well that at day 6 in verifications in the N Hem it is only a notch below the ECM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 00z GEFS spaghetti plots have a really nice clustering near the 40/70 at 144-150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm sure the SE ridge would come back if we lost the -AO/-NAO as we're in a -1.6C Niña, and we know what that does with heights in the subtropical regions. However, we're currently benefiting from the wonderful combination of the La Niña cooling off Canada and the globe while the blocking brings the increased cold air, and eventually the PV, into our backyards. We could be setting up for a particularly cold and snowy period starting now and going through around 1/20 including the Norlun Friday, the Miller A threat next week, and then the arctic outbreak as the PV heads into the Plains. I really don't see the high-latitude blocking breaking down soon, fortunately...the 12z GFS ENS showed the return of a monster -NAO block, west-based....You can see that even at Day 12, we have an unreal block over Siberia which is bringing the world's coldest airmass into the Canadian Prairies: I agree that there was a bit of STJ involved but most of it came from a closed low off the California coast which eventually fractured and broke down into distinct shortwaves. Also, the others storms this year that have involved the southern stream, like the mid-December overrunning event in VA, have largely been of this variety, not the STJ that we saw during the 09-10 strong Niño winter. We're unlikely to have much help from the STJ this cold season, but it doesn't seem as if we need it given the fairly active Pacific pattern and blocking downstream. Yeah, I think Pac energy plus cold air is all we really need. People sometimes become a little too obsessed with STJ's.... give me a large block plus a stormy pacific jet like the one which was firehosing Cali with record rainfall a la the pineapple express.... combine those over here and it can be explosive, as we've already seen. You dont really need the STJ to have a big storm on the east coast. This is why la ninas can still give us massive amounts of snow when they have great blocking a la 09-10, 16-17, 66-67, 95-96, 05-06..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This storm threat has had my attention for a while now, but this run really highlights the potential we have. The two-storm solution previously advertised is not going to happen; I think this could be the region as a whole's greatest shot at a significant event for the entire winter (not just isolated areas--RIC to BOS). I'm officially muy excited, especially since this has backing from other models as well. lol we said this about the last storm too.... we just have to wait and see if the euro comes on board.... especially with all the twists and turns with the last 2 systems, you know there'll be a lot of ups and downs with this system.... as a matter of fact, I see that some people want to jump ship already. It seems like our chances are slowly getting better (as we all thought they would after looking at the 18z runs) but its still several days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Relax it is close and has plenty of time to change over..If it is consistently showing a Miss up until Sunday or Monday than I might write it off but there was more positives than Negatives for sure tonight in regards to nest weeks storm.. Yea, a lot of us thought the 00z runs would be much better than earlier runs (despite us being "warned") but it doesnt mean we're there yet. A lot of time to go with this-- but there's no reason not to have fun and imagine the possibilities. Having fun tracking the different possibilities is where most of the fun is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Meh, we're in a solid spot between all of the models at 6 days out. Complete breakdown of the -NAO by 144 on the Euro. Nice -EPO though... Its good if the breakdown is temporary so we can reload some fresh arctic air and prepare for Don's arctic outbreak sometime around Jan 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 here are the indiv gfs ens tot precip for the next week threat. Some good solutions mixed in with some bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 4 of those solutions are absolutely great-- (1-2 inches QPF).... look at the one on the upper right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yea, a lot of us thought the 00z runs would be much better than earlier runs (despite us being "warned") but it doesnt mean we're there yet. A lot of time to go with this-- but there's no reason not to have fun and imagine the possibilities. Having fun tracking the different possibilities is where most of the fun is I remember the week Leading up to the Dec 26 storm was such a roller coaster ride with ups and down and after the Euro caved it was like all the air went out of the balloon only to be revived 48hrs later I remember Christmas Eve and Christmas day all the Blizzard talk had me excited with anticipation.. The funnly thing is even though things didn't look with that storm 72 hrs before I still had a feeling it could still turn around and of course U know the rest..Not saying next weeks storm will be a blizzard but all the models showing something consistently this far out has the makings of something big.The next week should be interesting with regards to tracking and model watching.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z dgex going with coastal hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ..and then there's the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I believe this will be a coastal hugger as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I believe this will be a coastal hugger as well. p type issues? or coastal hugger with enough blocking making it all snow up until you get to the actual low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I believe this will be a coastal hugger as well. I actually agree with this as well...i actually just wrote a whole discussion on it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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