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NYC/PHL Jan 11-14 Threat Potential


am19psu

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The gfs and ggem look really good for us, it may be a tad too warm for those within 25-50 miles of the coast, like myself, but I have a feeling that things will trend colder at the surface. On the gfs, we have a nice cold high in SE canada, the track is nearly perfect.

I don't know if this has been mentioned, ,but a very impressive setup for the deep south as well. Could be a major snow and ice event for them. Also the low looks somewhat spread out which really allows moisture to extend far to the west of the area of LP, at least up through the southern and central Mid Atlantic.

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The gfs and ggem look really good for us, it may be a tad too warm for those within 25-50 miles of the coast, like myself, but I have a feeling that things will trend colder at the surface. On the gfs, we have a nice cold high in SE canada, the track is nearly perfect.

I don't know if this has been mentioned, ,but a very impressive setup for the deep south as well. Could be a major snow and ice event for them. Also the low looks somewhat spread out which really allows moisture to extend far to the west of the area of LP, at least up through the southern and central Mid Atlantic.

If the precip comes in heavy the way the models show and if the phasing transpires as predicted, precip type won't be a problem unless it turns into a very close coastal hugger. The confluence will also provide a good means to wetbulb down the temps through transport of dry air (if it's still there and if the storm transpires!!).

But as this storm depends on timing and location of phasing with the southern stream, it'll likely be a solution that changes numerous times before it happens one way or the other. Expect the GFS and probably the rest of the models to pull the storm back in the future as they wrestle with these aspects. The confluence is key also, since this prevents the low from ultimately cutting for the Lakes. If that disappears and the phasing is still on, we could see western solutions as well.

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Great run for those who were slammed two weeks ago and those who are going to be hit with the friday storm.,,

Others... not so much.

This could very easily develop a second low that tries to ride up west of the Apps and at least delivers some overrunning precip for PA as it transfers to the coast.

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