Kaner587 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GGEM looks beautiful for the NYC area... and probably philly as well (and without question further N and E) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That ggem is a huge hit next stop the europeans. The 1/11/11 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The gfs and ggem look really good for us, it may be a tad too warm for those within 25-50 miles of the coast, like myself, but I have a feeling that things will trend colder at the surface. On the gfs, we have a nice cold high in SE canada, the track is nearly perfect. I don't know if this has been mentioned, ,but a very impressive setup for the deep south as well. Could be a major snow and ice event for them. Also the low looks somewhat spread out which really allows moisture to extend far to the west of the area of LP, at least up through the southern and central Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 gfs ens are a good bit further east than the op, but there deff are some wet solutions in there with the precip spread back into i95 and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NOGAPS looks like the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This would be huge if the Euro could jump on board later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The gfs and ggem look really good for us, it may be a tad too warm for those within 25-50 miles of the coast, like myself, but I have a feeling that things will trend colder at the surface. On the gfs, we have a nice cold high in SE canada, the track is nearly perfect. I don't know if this has been mentioned, ,but a very impressive setup for the deep south as well. Could be a major snow and ice event for them. Also the low looks somewhat spread out which really allows moisture to extend far to the west of the area of LP, at least up through the southern and central Mid Atlantic. If the precip comes in heavy the way the models show and if the phasing transpires as predicted, precip type won't be a problem unless it turns into a very close coastal hugger. The confluence will also provide a good means to wetbulb down the temps through transport of dry air (if it's still there and if the storm transpires!!). But as this storm depends on timing and location of phasing with the southern stream, it'll likely be a solution that changes numerous times before it happens one way or the other. Expect the GFS and probably the rest of the models to pull the storm back in the future as they wrestle with these aspects. The confluence is key also, since this prevents the low from ultimately cutting for the Lakes. If that disappears and the phasing is still on, we could see western solutions as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GGEM a hit in NE PA? I can't tell on the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 colored images for the ggem, like gfs good coastal hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We're going for the home run tonight with the GFS and GGEM..now we can wait on the Ukie and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We're going for the home run tonight with the GFS and GGEM..now we can wait on the Ukie and ECMWF. more like grand slam ukie, euro, gem, gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Great run for those who were slammed two weeks ago and those who are going to be hit with the friday storm.,, Others... not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 more like grand slam ukie, euro, gem, gfs Ukie is out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Total Prcep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't believe how ripe the potential for snow is right now, a mini-event with a possible coastal storm next week just blows my mind. It seems like the GFS and GGEM have caught onto features that are there for a storm to come up the coast, but not definitive by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Great run for those who were slammed two weeks ago and those who are going to be hit with the friday storm.,, Others... not so much. This could very easily develop a second low that tries to ride up west of the Apps and at least delivers some overrunning precip for PA as it transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 78, the hgts are higher on the ec, the pv i s alittle further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Haha awesome seeing Tom jump from thread to thread with the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Euro seems much less suppressive with the heights along the east coast through 78 hours, and also much more involved with the energy coming in from the Pac NW as well. We will see where this goes but early signs are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 90, s/w over texas is a lot stronger, the backside energy is digging alittle more to..hgr hgts along east coast..hvy precip in tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 90 has a sub 1004 low east of hou.... overal continued them from hr 84 post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks fantastic through 96 hours, wow. Surface low over LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 96 southern storm is a good bit further north centered 10 miles west of new ore....ark getting hammered with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 102, stronger s/w in the south, also a good bit further north again...hgr hgts along east coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 huge snowstorm for litte rock this run....1.00+ qpf all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 108 has a sub 1008 low over southern ala...energy in the west is digging better than 12z...hgr hgts along the east coast...50/50 low in good postion...s/w continues stronger..deep south getting a sig winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 120 one low off the se coast...the plains energy is over the kansas area moving east...need that plains energy to dive in harder, the hgts are still pretty flat along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 more like grand slam ukie, euro, gem, gfs ukie is much better than yesterdays 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Close, but no cigar. Much better..but we struck out with the Euro here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 132 storm still off se coast...but the plains energy isnt digging really at all pretty flat look so far....just an area of lgt precip through center of country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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