tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 sub 1004 over hse, phasing with energy from plains at hr 135 lgt to mod precip up to pa turnpike..mod precip over dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 138 hrs closed off over the TN Valley...jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Huge M/A hit at 141 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nice play by play John and Tom! I'm looking too. It looks very, very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't even believe the setup being depicted at the moment, to be honest with you....it's really beautiful at 132 hrs. I'm literally foaming at the mouth. So this will be better than 18z for this area? I know how you feel - winter storms get me going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 starting to get captured at hr 141...nice hit for our area..sub 996 bout 75-100 miles east of mouth of ches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So this will be better than 18z for this area? I know how you feel - winter storms get me going! Can you wait till the run finishes before you ask questions. talk about buzz kill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow southern jersey and delmarva gets raped at hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Man coastal NJ gets slammed at 144-147 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This storm threat has had my attention for a while now, but this run really highlights the potential we have. The two-storm solution previously advertised is not going to happen; I think this could be the region as a whole's greatest shot at a significant event for the entire winter (not just isolated areas--RIC to BOS). I'm officially muy excited, especially since this has backing from other models as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NYC/LI slammed at 150 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can you wait till the run finishes before you ask questions. talk about buzz kill Sorry but I thought it was obvious from the play by play - just wanted confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 scary, the low placement is almost identical to the dec 26-27 storm..hr 147 storm is captured at h5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Around ~990 over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 H5 actually closes off just south of LI at 147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 John and Tom - correct me if I'm wrong cuz I haven't been following too closely the past few days.... wasn't this depicted as 2 separate systems.. one headed off the southeast coast and then another one coming in our area... is it looking like those two systems are now phased into this one storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 John and Tom - correct me if I'm wrong cuz I haven't been following too closely the past few days.... wasn't this depicted as 2 separate systems.. one headed off the southeast coast and then another one coming in our area... is it looking like those two systems are now phased into this one storm?? jay what it looks to me is, you get the southern wave that moves east then slows over the se, then the plains energy comes down and grabs it and phases, so yes. Not sure if john sees it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 John and Tom - correct me if I'm wrong cuz I haven't been following too closely the past few days.... wasn't this depicted as 2 separate systems.. one headed off the southeast coast and then another one coming in our area... is it looking like those two systems are now phased into this one storm?? The second pac system was always involved. It's important in pulling the system back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 jay what it looks to me is, you get the southern wave that moves east then slows over the se, then the plains energy comes down and grabs it and phases, so yes. Not sure if john sees it differently. The second pac system was always involved. It's important in pulling the system back west. ok, cool... thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ugh...why does this have to be 6 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The surface temps do look warm for Points NYC east, but at 150 that all changes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ugh...why does this have to be 6 days out? true.. but wouldn't it be kinda boring if we didn't have the chance to pull our hair out 2 times a day for the next week or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 true.. but wouldn't it be kinda boring if we didn't have the chance to pull our hair out 2 times a day for the next week or so... The GFS phase with that southern cutoff will make this a "pull your hair out event" for sure since it will likely flop around quite a bit the next 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Game. On. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS phase with that southern cutoff will make this a "pull your hair out event" for sure since it will likely flop around quite a bit the next 4 days. That's the fun of it...all about the chase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 .5-.75 this run for SE PA More in NJ and LI NE PA gets less again; hopefully that changes so we can all join in I'm sure there will be more misses shown, but a hit sometimes is good for confidence sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's the fun of it...all about the chase! Agreed! I love looping it from the start and watching that precip start blossoming back west and you just get that feeling that its coming up the coast. Awesome stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ggem looks really good. Continuing theme from 12z two pronged storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 144 on the ggem, looks a little west of gfs track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 that GGEM 5H map posted above kinda looks like a 1/96 analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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