bluehens Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I would agree they are more common in a weak Nina.......but 12/26 was like the 3rd real Miller A to happen in a mod/strong Nina in like the past 40 years......that's rare in my book Miller As can form in a Nina; (or A/B Hybird)/, for example, Philly's greatest snowstorm, the Blizzard of '96 did not have any STJ involvement and was dominated by the Polar Jet digging so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm almost certain that the chances of this cutting inland are very slim at this point. The longwave pattern would have to change dramatically as close in as +60 hours out for this to have any chance of doing that. When I say "this" I mean the big southern stream shortwave..which is an old piece of a Pacific vortex. Because there could be confusion if this vort gets suppressed and then the second piece of Pac energy ejects afterwards. Who knows what might happen then. But when it comes to the first storm, you can see even at 60 hours that this storm is either going to come up towards the 40/70 or go out to sea--it's chance of going inland seem very slim to me. Also..by inland...I mean a track that would bring liquid precipitation problems to Philly and north. South of there might have a westward track even if the shortwave is stronger than progged and has stronger ridging ahead of it. But with the confluence forecast by every model and the positioning of that vortex..the chances of such a feature redeveloping are extremely high and I don't think we will have to worry in that regard. The chances of this going off the coast are much higher than anything like that, though, if you ask me..given the ensemble mean height pattern and superensemble upper air pattern analogs. I agree. This won't be an inland runner. The models are starting to mirror the atmosphere and the pieces in play. Let's look at the general position of the Low and watch it come into focus over the next couple of days. Then we can monitor the details of the actual track, speed and placement of the precipitation field. I think it looks good for something substantial at this point. Should be fun to watch it unfold again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't even imagine what this season would have been like had this Nina been a bit weaker....but with this insane blocking around......I guess a 95-96 redux...... Last years was the STJ on steroids, the true pineaple express a direct result of the strong nino. The STJ can still be a factor even when not on roids. The water vapor loops showed the hawaii connection all the way to the gulf and off the se coast. It was weak, but it was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't even imagine what this season would have been like had this Nina been a bit weaker....but with this insane blocking around......I guess a 95-96 redux...... Well, the good thing is, we just started, so who knows where we end!!! With some of the talk about the blocking not really going anywhere, it may not matter how strong this nina is, especially if we get some more MJO action into the favorable east coast cyclogenis phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't know what I'm thinking. That really flat, broad trough across the Eastern 2/3s of the country isn't the most common solution, so if that's wrong, like eduggs said, the s/w will head northward toward OH. But if that flat, broad trough is right, then I have a hard time seeing the storm turning the corner and RDU gets jackpotted. I guess if I had a gun to my head, I still like the GEM the best, but the consensus of the meteorologists on the board that are better than me at winter forecasting is that OTS is the worrisome solution. :shrug: Finally, a honest Met! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I thought I just read somewhere the MJO on one of the models is headed for zone 7/8 maybe in time for next week.....weak amplitude but still headed there Well, the good thing is, we just started, so who knows where we end!!! With some of the talk about the blocking not really going anywhere, it may not matter how strong this nina is, especially if we get some more MJO action into the favorable east coast cyclogenis phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I thought I just read somewhere the MJO on one of the models is headed for zone 7/8 maybe in time for next week.....weak amplitude but still headed there Yes, I believe I read the same thing, but I do not believe there is agreement amongst the mjo predictors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes, I believe I read the same thing, but I do not believe there is agreement amongst the mjo predictors. It's in the medium range thread. The 0z GFS showed the MJO moving to P8, but the UKM and ECM (which are statistically better predictors since they are coupled models) kept it in the circle of death. Some statistical forecasts I've seen translate the MJO-wave near the dateline, but do not have any -OLR anomalies (in fact, they are +OLR anomalies), which means you don't get an active STJ like you would if convection fired at the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Boxing Day system was sort of from a pseudo STJ...it wasn't the true STJ you get in a Nino that extends all the way across the Pacific. What happened is the Kamchatka ridge got very amplified and then the trough on the downstream side dug so deep and far SW that it nearly made it to Hawaii. It was really the polar jet digging really far SW and splitting off for a time...so we basically had a faux pineapple express there for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 On the 18z indiv members, I counted 4 hits, 6 brushes, and 2 OTS solutions. For reference, I counted the OP as a "brush" - meaning that it gave some precip but the storm track was rather far east. Interesting to note that there are no more Cutters. Also intriguing that I didn't see ANY true Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Boxing Day system was sort of from a pseudo STJ...it wasn't the true STJ you get in a Nino that extends all the way across the Pacific. What happened is the Kamchatka ridge got very amplified and then the trough on the downstream side dug so deep and far SW that it nearly made it to Hawaii. It was really the polar jet digging really far SW and splitting off for a time...so we basically had a faux pineapple express there for a bit. Got the job done philly to Nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The SREF's look very favorable at the end of the run..from 78 to 87 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS so far seems better positioned with the shortwave in the southwest US..but is also more suppressive with the PV so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The trough in the west getting involved at 90 hrs is really helping to amplify the flow despite the initial suppression..this is going to be close but the potential is really awesome. Especially if you're in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the pv is way further south compared to the 18z so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Surface low out of the Gulf and along the Gulf coast at 96 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's probably going to come in flat this run..but I really like what I see with the upper air pattern even at 72-84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 need to see that h5 llow and energy over the northern plains to start digging more to raise the hgts along the east coast, everything is pretty flat so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Pacific energy getting involved at 102 hrs..could amplify things, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Man, the SREF's are really honking...a whole bunch of GGEM solutions would probably be in play here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The amplification occurring in the Mid Atlantic at 108 is really classic...there's a partial phase occuring between the energy out west and the initial shortwave over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow s/w in southeast is really digging, this may come up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Phasing over the arlatex at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is going to be really close at 123 hours..wow. What an awesome, awesome setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 plains energy really starting to dig in at hr 123... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Although the PV was further south, the entire flow across the country was a good bit more amplified than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Awesome hit for portions of the SE at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 sub 1008 low over cape fear...lgt to mod precip over va at hr 129 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't even believe the setup being depicted at the moment, to be honest with you....it's really beautiful at 132 hrs. I'm literally foaming at the mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DC getting hit hard at 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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