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NYC/PHL Jan 11-14 Threat Potential


am19psu

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I should correct myself and better explain myself...from pa south ,temps bout 30-40.. ny north, mostly all lower 30's.. warm up, not a torch. but this is in response the the euro positoning the PV north of Montana and creating a lake cutter .. its all subject to change in the long term.. (200hrs+)

Thanks Irishbri

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Thanks Irishbri

Well if this cutter materializes, we could easily have a major arctic outbreak right after that. Some were referencing that the NAO temporarily goes positive before it crashes again. Could be the arctic outbreak comes after whatever warm up we have.

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Wasn't there talk about a massive cold snap for the area? Record low temperatures and such I could have swore about this but looking at the temps it dosen't get all that cold.

I have been watching the temps in northern and central

Canada and for this time of year they haven't been that cold. There should be some -45 to -50s showing up for a true arctic outbeak.

That warm pocket in eastern Canada seems to be inhibiting any large scale cooling in Canada. This seems to be due to the blocking that has retrograded further west.

sfc_con_temp_na.gif

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in my opinion, we need the s/w to slow up a bit and wait for the trough (northern stream) on the GFS

the ridge out west is pretty good, just shift the axis alittle to the east to sharpen up the trough

i think the gfs is just starting to get a handle on all of the features and it will start to show hits in future runs :snowman:

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This could be a slow mover. Possible weak or moderate SLP but high QPF scenario if we get moisture far enough NW.

Agreed and theres plenty of time and I think we're in the same boat this time its either snow or no (out to sea missing us). Areas from NC, VA into MD looks to have an increasing threat. Wheres the old northward trends. I dont think weve seen them since the 08/09 winter.

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I mentioned a couple of days ago how the preceeding setup to this event reminded me of 2/6/10. This also has some similarities to 12/19/09.

I'm already getting excited. The signals look great.

Doug do you mean the storm for next week?

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Absolutely thrilled with what I'm seeing on most modeling right now for this period. That is a setup conducive to a potential big winter storm in the mid atlantic and northern mid atlantic as well.

Im getting a feeling we're going to see something amazing on tonight's 0z runs-- we just have to get them to hold lol

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Agreed and theres plenty of time and I think we're in the same boat this time its either snow or no (out to sea missing us). Areas from NC, VA into MD looks to have an increasing threat. Wheres the old northward trends. I dont think weve seen them since the 08/09 winter.

Southern stream plus very loose height gradient leaves a lot of wiggle room to the north.

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Geez, you guys are acting like it's 90/10 we're going to get a KU storm, when in actuality, it's about 10/90. Look where the ridge is out west, look how much ridging there is out in front, look when and where the H5 low cuts off. This has a TON of work to do before you can start throwing around 12/16/09 and 2/6/10.

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