Sampson Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12 hourly maps are available for free on the Penn State E-Wall...Link Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I should correct myself and better explain myself...from pa south ,temps bout 30-40.. ny north, mostly all lower 30's.. warm up, not a torch. but this is in response the the euro positoning the PV north of Montana and creating a lake cutter .. its all subject to change in the long term.. (200hrs+) Thanks Irishbri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Given past examples of how the models have been handling storms, I'm surprised anyone is crying at this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thanks Irishbri Well if this cutter materializes, we could easily have a major arctic outbreak right after that. Some were referencing that the NAO temporarily goes positive before it crashes again. Could be the arctic outbreak comes after whatever warm up we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anyone post the euro ens when you get a chance. I'm at work/ gym/ in the iphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anyone post the euro ens when you get a chance. I'm at work/ gym/ in the iphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like the NAM at 18Z is kicking the Southwest vorticity out at a decent clip, though it remains closed longer than some other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wasn't there talk about a massive cold snap for the area? Record low temperatures and such I could have swore about this but looking at the temps it dosen't get all that cold. I have been watching the temps in northern and central Canada and for this time of year they haven't been that cold. There should be some -45 to -50s showing up for a true arctic outbeak. That warm pocket in eastern Canada seems to be inhibiting any large scale cooling in Canada. This seems to be due to the blocking that has retrograded further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z DGEX looks good through 144 hrs for the second system--so the NAM H5 setup was probably pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nice hit for the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nice hit for the mid atlantic Cant wait to see what the 18z gfs churns out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just like Henry M. has been saying. Nice hit for the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1 guess, and 1 guess only, what yr does this remind you of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 2009-2010 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1 guess, and 1 guess only, what yr does this remind you of Dec. 19, 2009. But, we know it went north from where shown at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Absolutely thrilled with what I'm seeing on most modeling right now for this period. That is a setup conducive to a potential big winter storm in the mid atlantic and northern mid atlantic as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Absolutely thrilled with what I'm seeing on most modeling right now for this period. That is a setup conducive to a potential big winter storm in the mid atlantic and northern mid atlantic as well. Me, too! GFS is a bit too OTS but still gives the area some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 in my opinion, we need the s/w to slow up a bit and wait for the trough (northern stream) on the GFS the ridge out west is pretty good, just shift the axis alittle to the east to sharpen up the trough i think the gfs is just starting to get a handle on all of the features and it will start to show hits in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Absolutely thrilled with what I'm seeing on most modeling right now for this period. That is a setup conducive to a potential big winter storm in the mid atlantic and northern mid atlantic as well. couldn't agree more John... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What hour is the 18z GFS at? It is really slow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This could be a slow mover. Possible weak or moderate SLP but high QPF scenario if we get moisture far enough NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I mentioned a couple of days ago how the preceeding setup to this event reminded me of 2/6/10. This also has some similarities to 12/19/09. I'm already getting excited. The signals look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not related to the big storm but the GFS keeps us in an icebox throughout the whole run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This could be a slow mover. Possible weak or moderate SLP but high QPF scenario if we get moisture far enough NW. Agreed and theres plenty of time and I think we're in the same boat this time its either snow or no (out to sea missing us). Areas from NC, VA into MD looks to have an increasing threat. Wheres the old northward trends. I dont think weve seen them since the 08/09 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I mentioned a couple of days ago how the preceeding setup to this event reminded me of 2/6/10. This also has some similarities to 12/19/09. Please...God no. Two screwjobs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I mentioned a couple of days ago how the preceeding setup to this event reminded me of 2/6/10. This also has some similarities to 12/19/09. I'm already getting excited. The signals look great. Doug do you mean the storm for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Absolutely thrilled with what I'm seeing on most modeling right now for this period. That is a setup conducive to a potential big winter storm in the mid atlantic and northern mid atlantic as well. Im getting a feeling we're going to see something amazing on tonight's 0z runs-- we just have to get them to hold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Agreed and theres plenty of time and I think we're in the same boat this time its either snow or no (out to sea missing us). Areas from NC, VA into MD looks to have an increasing threat. Wheres the old northward trends. I dont think weve seen them since the 08/09 winter. Southern stream plus very loose height gradient leaves a lot of wiggle room to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Geez, you guys are acting like it's 90/10 we're going to get a KU storm, when in actuality, it's about 10/90. Look where the ridge is out west, look how much ridging there is out in front, look when and where the H5 low cuts off. This has a TON of work to do before you can start throwing around 12/16/09 and 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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