tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 114 has sub 1008 low just east of the boot of louisiana...also lgt to mod precip in the plains....deep south getting a good snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 damn dude that GGEM run is almost as beautiful as yesterdays DGEX haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 120 big snowstorm for central miss,ala,ga on north to about ten line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 damn dude that GGEM run is almost as beautiful as yesterdays DGEX haha it may be some bl issues for our area, but thats not worth really getting into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 126 sub 1012 low over jacksonville....the plains energy is starting to dig south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Metric FTW! haha Death, taxes & Americans never figuring out the metric system lol you guys are really funny. There's an easy way to figure this out which also works well for categorizing SECS, MECS, HECS, etc. 4 inch (10 cm) to 8 inch (20 cm) SECS 8 inch (20 cm) to 16 inch (40 cm) MECS 16 inch (40 cm) + HECS 4-8-16 in inches is the same as 10-20-40 in cm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 132 southern storm is starting to move off the se coast....while the plains storm is digging in the middle of the country...h5 argues for the plains energy to be further north than 0z, the block is not as potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 120 big snowstorm for central miss,ala,ga on north to about ten line... that is really awesome for them.......of course the schools down there would be shut down for a week......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 144 the southern storm is still sitting off the se coast by about 200 miles or so, while the plains precip is starting to link up with it...precip uo to about southern va to ky line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The only thing that worries me is that the Euro tends to hold back southern stream energy too long and on this run its still outrunning the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 that is really awesome for them.......of course the schools down there would be shut down for a week......lol As long as it comes this way too, i'm happy for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 150 looks like a new low is trying to form just se of cape fear...lgt to mod precip breaking out over eastern nc and se va.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 156 sub 1008 low bout 75-100 miles ese of hse...closed h5 low over sw va....lgt precip bout up to dc...lgt to mod precip most of nc and southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 162 sub 100 low about 150 miles east of hse....lgt precip from northern sc to m/d line...with lgt to mod precip over se va and eastern nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wide right, but in this situation, as we saw in December, we can't write off these on models because the timing's off by a little. nope, i wouldn't write anything of until Monday especially after the 12-26 event don't make that mistake again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 168 sub 988 low about 300-350 miles east of orf...lgt precip for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the phase is a tad late, kinda like the GFS - trough is too broad for my liking HUGE potential though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 174 storm is moving ots about 150 or so miles ese of the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the phase is a tad late, kinda like the GFS - trough is too broad for my liking HUGE potential though IIRC, the European Model had the last storm wide while the GFS showed it closer to the coast, then they switched places before they both lost it and brought it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The ridge is pretty flat out west, but if the phase was 12 hrs earlier we would have gotten hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 +1 Stop paying so damn much attention to the surface map, and look at the H5 maps. If the timing's off, the system goes wide right, whether by a little or a lot. As I mentioned in my post that you rather snarkily dismissed, as we saw in December, timing isn't as important as there being players on the field at this point. Jeez. And thank YOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Let Tombo do the PBP.. thanks Who's trying to do play by play? I'm making an observation based upon the panel. An observation that should be fairly easy to see. Without rising heights off the EC, with the vort in that position, there's just no way for the storm to turn the corner in time. That's not saying it won't happen, but it is saying that as depicted on the 12Z EC on 1/5/11, that storm isn't coming up the EC. We've learned our lessons about trusting timing and split flows and phases from December's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The players involved are still half way around the world...give the models some time to get a bettern handeling on the strength and speed of the energy involved. All the players are on the field for a MECS. It's all about the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Longer range euro has the PV set up shop north of montana into canada. lakes cutter on the table, with a warm up in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Even looking at the surface as soon as you hear 150 east of HSE you know its OTS for us........maybe it could hook back for ME but not us from that spot with the flow so flat. Who's trying to do play by play? I'm making an observation based upon the panel. An observation that should be fairly easy to see. Without rising heights off the EC, with the vort in that position, there's just no way for the storm to turn the corner in time. That's not saying it won't happen, but it is saying that as depicted on the 12Z EC on 1/5/11, that storm isn't coming up the EC. We've learned our lessons about trusting timing and split flows and phases from December's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Longer range euro has the PV set up shop north of montana into canada. lakes cutter on the table, with a warm up in the east. So all of that 1994 freezing cold talk is no longer showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Many of us can't see the surface maps or the H5 depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Longer range euro has the PV set up shop north of montana into canada. lakes cutter on the table, with a warm up in the east. Wasn't there talk about a massive cold snap for the area? Record low temperatures and such I could have swore about this but looking at the temps it dosen't get all that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 So all of that 1994 freezing cold talk is no longer showing up? I should correct myself and better explain myself...from pa south ,temps bout 30-40.. ny north, mostly all lower 30's.. warm up, not a torch. but this is in response the the euro positoning the PV north of Montana and creating a lake cutter .. its all subject to change in the long term.. (200hrs+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Many of us can't see the surface maps or the H5 depiction. 12 hourly maps are available for free on the Penn State E-Wall...Link I usually follow along with Tombo--he gets better data and I think either 3 or 6 hourly intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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