TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Even going East still shows a Decent Hit(at least a Few inches with More along the Coast) so like U said every run wont be a Blizzard or Direct Hit ! I understand how people can freak out. We all want to see it nail our back yards every run, but it doesnt work that way. The best storms follow the same pattern. Models see it at 180+ hours. They carry it for a few runs. They lose it, bring it back, lose it, and then bring it back for the home stretch. This is why ensembles exist, and it is why you see HPC constantly mention using them. I am waiting for someone to point out the nogaps isn't an inland runner now, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So there's two more storms after next week's possible storm before we get that arctic outbreak? Sounds like its gettign pushed back to Jan 20 lol. I know its really far out but did the hugger look like it had enough blocking to keep it from cutting and preventing mixing issues? lol all these solutions will probably morph around so much as to be unrecognizable in a few hours. Yeah, it looks like the blocking is there, but maybe someone who knows more can explain: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_264l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's only if you think the Euro is infallible. It, like any model, can take time to catch on. The GFS hits are supported by the GGEM and even the usually suppressed Nogaps. Yes, I'd like it to be a hit soon on the Euro, but it's early. its very rare that the euro would completely miss something. If it had the event and lost it there would be something to the other data...but the euro never really had the storm...so until it does im not buying what the gfs is selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Euro trended noticeably better at h5 last night. So don't say it hasn't budged. all you really need to do is look out west....no ridge=no amplification.... the 50/50 is moving awat enough that the trough shouldnt flatten out as it does at 120hrs on the 0Z euro....i would be surprised if the euro flipped towards the 0Z GGEM/GFS and not the other way around....again, I have been wrong MANY MANY times times and wouldnt mind being wrong here....but refer back to my opening statement...without it this has little chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 its very rare that the euro would completely miss something. If it had the event and lost it there would be something to the other data...but the euro never really had the storm...so until it does im not buying what the gfs is selling It did have it a few runs ago - gave us 6-12" as I recall. Last year featured storms where the Euro was late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Without any good reasoning? Sure! It's just as bad as when blizz would come on here saying that every storm would be a blizzard. If there's no reasoning to your posts, it's better if you don't say anything, because all you do is make yourself look bad. no ridge out west....there, sound reasoning. this event has no chance to amplify the way the GGEM was showing....all you have is a bowl trough across the country and a strong 50/50....tell me, how is that going to allow for amplification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 no ridge out west....there, sound reasoning. this event has no chance to amplify the way the GGEM was showing....all you have is a bowl trough across the country and a strong 50/50....tell me, how is that going to allow for amplification? The hits show a phase with the western shortwave.. causing a tug up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here is the 12z canadian hour 132. It has gone east from last night, but fluctuations are expected, every run cannot be a hit. Clearly the data or lack thereof ingested today has caused a slight eastward shift. Seeing the GFS ensemble mean brings comfort. EDIT for hour 144 which shows the precip after 132 so now, at 12Z MOST guidance has moved TOWARDS the Euro's camp...and the GGEM actually has a building ridge out west...last night at 0Z it didnt have a ridge and it had amplification...unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ace....calm down. Its a week out at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It did have it a few runs ago - gave us 6-12" as I recall. Last year featured storms where the Euro was late to the party. one run doesnt count.... 2 weeks ago the euro had our blizzard 7 of 8 runs (i either had this conversation with tornadojay or goose the day before the blizzard) lost it for 3 and then caught back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ace....calm down. Its a week out at best. its actually distracting him from bashing tomorrow's "storm" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The hits show a phase with the western shortwave.. causing a tug up the coast. on the individual gfs members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 one run doesnt count.... 2 weeks ago the euro had our blizzard 7 of 8 runs (i either had this conversation with tornadojay or goose the day before the blizzard) lost it for 3 and then caught back on. But you said it never showed it. It did show it once. I think the 6 or 7 run thing won't happen for every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what storm? would be shocked if we got coating to 1"...anything we get is bonus snow Yea, it seems to be drying up. Im going to refrain from getting off the handle about next week, because we just dont know until this thing gets out of the way first. There might be more amplification than is currently depicted.... time will tell. Im glad we have one snowstorm in the bank (and a really good one at that) so we can just watch things as they happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 But you said it never showed it. It did show it once. I think the 6 or 7 run thing won't happen for every storm. to be fair, i just went back and looked, both Monday runs had a storm. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011010600!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS ops is right smack in the middle of the ensemble spread at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anyone doing the Euro pbp today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS ops is right smack in the middle of the ensemble spread at H5. A pic is worth a thousand words..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The split flow setup, the speed of the streams, and everything about the pattern is so difficult for modeling to handle--especially in details--that we should be very happy to see the players out there. Let the details work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anyone doing the Euro pbp today? It will be a little bit till the Euro gets out to the 100+ hours for this storm. check back around 1:20-1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 36 hours, biggest difference is that the PV/eastern trough is deeper s/w much stronger at 48 compared to 0z.. a tad bit faster The euro also has light snow over most of the Carolinas tomorrow night, some pockets of 1" maybe in the piedmont. The mtns do very well. Otherwise, no major changes I see unless its the closed low over Arizona (opened up on other models) but about equal in strength at 54 at 60, PV is WEAKER and southern s/w is STRONGER euro being discussed in the southern thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 A pic is worth a thousand words..... Nut Sorry, I can't post Earthsat images here. You'll have to take my word for it. But there is nothing that screams "outlier" about the GFS ops (unlike the 0z or 6z runs which were highly amplified compared to the ensemble spread). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 sorry guys just woke up lol...euro out to hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 84, the pv over the northeast is a little more surpessive with lower hgts on the ec....but the northern stream is a little faster and digging better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just letting you guys know now, we are splitting the discussion threads up to try and slow down volume. For all future storms starting at the 18z runs today, there are going to be seperate threads for NYC area discussion and PHL area discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 96 has a sub 1012 low just south of the fl panhandle....but the pv but things are pretty flat...the s/w is weaker compared to 0z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just letting you guys know now, we are splitting the discussion threads up to try and slow down volume. For all future storms starting at the 18z runs today, there are going to be seperate threads for NYC area discussion and PHL area discussion. Very good idea. I almost requested this yesterday, but wasn't sure how it would be received... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 108 has a sub 1012 low over the se coast, the hgts along the ec are a little higher....northern stream energy is a little faster, but doesnt look like its going to do it, there to separated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 114 compared to 0z the storm off the se coast is closer to the coast.. northern stream is really trying to dig in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Todays 12z run is much closer to phasing than last nights 00z run..its way further west. That being said I don't think it's going to tug it up the coast in time this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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