Harbourton Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 One of the models is now showing a track right over NYC which would probably put the rain/snow line in upstate NY.... not liking this trend at all. Granted its the DGEX but still. I know it's just the DGEX but spews out a lot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No one here should panic based on what the DGEX or NOGAPS show. They can flip around more often than a fish in a barrel, and are all around nowhere near as skilled as models like the Euro (which is still OTS). Also though I don't think an inland or coast hugger solution can be discounted yet either. If the phasing takes place early enough and with enough energy entrained, while we lose the confluence to the north which would force a further east track, that sort of track which changes us to rain is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No one here should panic based on what the DGEX or NOGAPS show. They can flip around more often than a fish in a barrel, and are all around nowhere near as skilled as models like the Euro (which is still OTS). Also though I don't think an inland or coast hugger solution can be discounted yet either. If the phasing takes place early enough and with enough energy entrained, while we lose the confluence to the north which would force a further east track, that sort of track which changes us to rain is possible. That somehow seems comforting lol. I wonder if the storm would be the kind where it could be mixing at the start but as the precip gets heavy turns over to all snow? The SST are much colder now than they were in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM at 84 hrs (I know I know) is very juiced with the soutern stream S/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Accuweather HM said to throw the European in the garabge, hes not even looking at that anymore...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS is back to its disorganized H5 over the ohio/tenessee valley and the SLP is allowed to escape. Definately a plausible solution atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Has anyone seen the 12Z GFS with this system? Ick. Southern stream races way ahead , misses the phase completely, 1014mb "low" off JAX, with northern stream feature digging in the plains at 108. 114 shows system off Wilmington, NC, then it stalls at 120--what is this thing, waiting for the northern stream to catch up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 As always the medium range GFS trends towards the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just missed the phase. All the potential still right there. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just missed the phase. All the potential still right there. No worries. I know but as usual you have your Debbie Downers in here thinking this storm is cooked because it is not showing a constant Blizzard every run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 As always the medium range GFS trends towards the EURO Yep! That really worked out well for you on 12/26, didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know but as usual you have your Debbie Downers in here thinking this storm is cooked because it is not showing a constant Blizzard every run.. Just like I said in another thread, when has the Northeast gotten a snowstorm out of something that the GFS has NOT shown out to sea a few times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just like I said in another thread, when has the Northeast gotten a snowstorm out of something that the GFS has NOT shown out to sea a few times? Even a GFS "miss" has a few frames of light snow over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep! That really worked out well for you on 12/26, didn't it? the euro had the storm before the GFS, days 9,8,7 and 6...then lost it for a few model runs...the GFS picked it back up one model run ahead? if you think the GFS is going to out forecast the Euro then your championship is well warranted. hours 108-168 are the bread and butter of the Euro if its saying OTS, its probably onto something, and now that the GFS has sold out im inclined to believe its more right than the DGEX/GGEM/GFS combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the euro had the storm before the GFS, days 9,8,7 and 6...then lost it for a few model runs...the GFS picked it back up one model run ahead? if you think the GFS is going to out forecast the Euro then your championship is well warranted. hours 108-168 are the bread and butter of the Euro if its saying OTS, its probably onto something, and now that the GFS has sold out im inclined to believe its more right than the DGEX/GGEM/GFS combo. It's one run of the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Even a GFS "miss" has a few frames of light snow over us. Exactly. This doesn't just slide off the coast not giving anyone anything. It still comes up, but just missed the phase. I'll be happy if the canadian still shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the euro had the storm before the GFS, days 9,8,7 and 6...then lost it for a few model runs...the GFS picked it back up one model run ahead? if you think the GFS is going to out forecast the Euro then your championship is well warranted. hours 108-168 are the bread and butter of the Euro if its saying OTS, its probably onto something, and now that the GFS has sold out im inclined to believe its more right than the DGEX/GGEM/GFS combo. GFS hasn't "sold out." It's one run, and the last two were hits. The Euro isn't at its better range anyway. Everyone, including me, gave up on the last storm and look what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I know but as usual you have your Debbie Downers in here thinking this storm is cooked because it is not showing a constant Blizzard every run.. are people not allowed to think that maybe there wont be a big snowstorm or the model is CORRECT when it shows an OTS solution? I dont understand how this works.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 are people not allowed to think that maybe there wont be a big snowstorm or the model is CORRECT when it shows an OTS solution? I dont understand how this works.... OTS is plausible right now. It's just that using one GFS run to help prove the point wasn't good evidence, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS hasn't "sold out" It's one run, and the last two were hits.The Euro isn't at its better range anyway. Everyone gave up on the last storm and look what happened. correct me if im wrong, but the GFS has really only had 2 runs where it showed a big event at our latitude. As recent as the 18Z run yesterday it had it sliding out to sea south of us....while the euro hasnt budged....which one has the better chance/likelihood of being right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 correct me if im wrong, but the GFS has really only had 2 runs where it showed a big event at our latitude. As recent as the 18Z run yesterday it had it sliding out to sea south of us....while the euro hasnt budged....which one has the better chance/likelihood of being right? That's only if you think the Euro is infallible. It, like any model, can take time to catch on. The GFS hits are supported by the GGEM and even the usually suppressed Nogaps. Yes, I'd like it to be a hit soon on the Euro, but it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 correct me if im wrong, but the GFS has really only had 2 runs where it showed a big event at our latitude. As recent as the 18Z run yesterday it had it sliding out to sea south of us....while the euro hasnt budged....which one has the better chance/likelihood of being right? Euro trended noticeably better at h5 last night. So don't say it hasn't budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what's going on after 204 on the gfs ?????? i know its far out...but looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 are people not allowed to think that maybe there wont be a big snowstorm or the model is CORRECT when it shows an OTS solution? I dont understand how this works.... Of course they can be Cautious but the Signs point to a significant threat off the east coast midweek.. All I am saying people should learn there lesson after the last big storm and keep all the cards on the table through at least the weekend.. Now if by Sunday ALL Models are showing a miss I will admit the possibility of a Complete miss is alot more likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what's going on after 204 on the gfs ?????? i know its far out...but looks interesting Looks like after our possible storm, there's a lakes cutter and a coastal hugger followed by very cold conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NOGAPS went east...not bad though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 are people not allowed to think that maybe there wont be a big snowstorm or the model is CORRECT when it shows an OTS solution? I dont understand how this works.... Without any good reasoning? Sure! It's just as bad as when blizz would come on here saying that every storm would be a blizzard. If there's no reasoning to your posts, it's better if you don't say anything, because all you do is make yourself look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like after our possible storm, there's a lakes cutter and a coastal hugger followed by very cold conditions. So there's two more storms after next week's possible storm before we get that arctic outbreak? Sounds like its getting pushed back to Jan 20 lol. I know its really far out but did the hugger look like it had enough blocking to keep it from cutting and preventing mixing issues? lol all these solutions will probably morph around so much as to be unrecognizable in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS ensembles appear to be over the 40/70 bench mark. Probably some good hitters in there. It's the same dance every storm. Models see storm, some models lose storm, some keep storm, dgex shows monster hit, then miss, then rain. Nogaps does something crazy. Models come back as data is sampled better. We get snow. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here is the 12z canadian hour 132. It has gone east from last night, but fluctuations are expected, every run cannot be a hit. Clearly the data or lack thereof ingested today has caused a slight eastward shift. Seeing the GFS ensemble mean brings comfort. EDIT for hour 144 which shows the precip after 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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