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NYC/PHL Jan 11-14 Threat Potential


am19psu

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looping the gfs H5 right now, its really close

looks like the s/w outruns the northern stream a bit and the phase is a tad late but boy does that have potential..Its funny the last few runs of the gfs hasnt been doing anything with the s/w and it was just sliding it out, now its trying to phase it all together :devilsmiley:

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true, the ggem doesn't look bad the coastal takes over when the primary is over ky...there still might be some bl issues for phl and nearby suburbs on east though on the ggem.

Would think that with the precip intensity and 700 low track on the Canadian everyone would be ok, but it is so far out, precip type discussions are meaningless.

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You do realize that that's in 12 hours, right?

With precip already having started before that frame...

and you do realize your arguing precip amounts 140hrs before an event? haha, not to bust chops, but we don't event have a solution yet.. lets worry about h5 and other synoptic features before we get there?

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and you do realize your arguing precip amounts 140hrs before an event? haha, not to bust chops, but we don't event have a solution yet.. lets worry about h5 and other synoptic features before we get there?

Wasn't arguing precip amounts. Was making sure that the OP realized that this is modeled currently to be a big-ticket item, and that 8-12" would verbatim be the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

Verbatim, this is RN/ZR/IP/slop to burying/crippling snowstorm.

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Yeah in those types of situations its always really really close with the BL for at least a few hours and more often than not we'll see a changeover to sleet in that time.....but then again maybe not.

true, the ggem doesn't look bad the coastal takes over when the primary is over ky...there still might be some bl issues for phl and nearby suburbs on east though on the ggem.

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