David Reimer Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I just thought we might as well get another thread started on any possible severe weather threats (as few as they may be) over the next few weeks. I'm beginning to watch a possible warm front event across southern Texas on Saturday. Right now the models don't develop much instability, but the wind fields are extremely favorable for rotating thunderstorms, so I'll be keeping an eye on that. My gut tells me the NAM is too far south with the warm front and too low with the instability (based on Dec. 31). I might just be picking at straws before the arctic opens up, but I think its worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually, I think the chances are looking rather interesting, David. I mentioned in the TX/MX thread this morning that we needed to pay close attention to the weekend. Thanks for getting a thread going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually, I think the chances are looking rather interesting, David. I mentioned in the TX/MX thread this morning that we needed to pay close attention to the weekend. Thanks for getting a thread going. Agreed. Looking at some hodographs north of Houston for Saturday Evening I was pleasantly surprised to see a large, enlongated hodograph. I'm betting the NAM doesn't have an accurate handle on the position of the warm front, and especially the amount of instability that will be present. If we can get dewpoints in the 60's then I would bet we would get at least 500 joules of SBCAPE (a significant portion of that being in the lowest 3 KM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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