Jefflaw77 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd love an old fashioned 4-8 inch event that had steady snow for hours w/ intermintent mod/heavy snow region wide.. I realize that this is probably a pipe dream but that type of event as a kid in the 80's and early 90's was to die for. A nostalgic storm like that would be nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow, major bust potential with forecasts depending on where that ribbon of heaviest precipitation sets up. I would think interior NW Jersey and extreme NE PA seem the best bet for higher snowfall totals right now based on surface temps and where the models have been setting up the band the past 24-36 hours. Interstate 84 special? Don't forget how big a difference temperatures between 30 and say, 36 degrees make when its snowing during the day. There is plenty of cold air aloft, and if the upward vertical motion depicted by the nam materializes to make for the heavy band, it will snow and stick wherever that band places. Nam verbatim of course. You are right though at the onset it would be sticking more in those areas than say coastal jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 how much at JFK on the soundings, .60+? 0.71 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 how much at JFK on the soundings, .60+? .71" http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KJFK.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's going to be fun watching everyone wishcast and rationalize for that band over their backyard for the 2.5 days. NJwinter23 is spot on with his assessment that we won't know for a while and it's why we have the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There is plenty of cold air aloft, and if the upward vertical motion depicted by the nam materializes to make for the heavy band, it will snow and stick wherever that band places. Nam verbatim of course. You are right though at the onset it would be sticking more in those areas than say coastal jersey I hear ya, for some reason, I'd just rather be inland rather than at the coast for this event if I lived in the tri-state area, we'll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 JFK: .71" NYC: .77" LGA: .74" EWR: .79" OKX: .40" HPN: .63" Temps start in mid 30's but quickly drop to upper 20's when real precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's going to be fun watching everyone wishcast and rationalize for that band over their backyard for the 2.5 days. NJwinter23 is spot on with his assessment that we won't know for a while and it's why we have the NAM. I for one, see the main event occuring northeast of my backyard, either way I'm looking forward to a period of snow Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anyone know when the SUNY MM5 model starts updating..that thing was deadly with regards to the banding from last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I for one, see the main event occuring northeast of my backyard, either way I'm looking forward to a period of snow Friday morning. Yeah, we're all going to see a little something. I haven't a clue where the band will set up, but I find it interesting that the NAM and GFS have been pretty consistent over the last 12 hours depicting the axis of heaviest snow over NYC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually a bit more for the Philly area... About .25" of precip. So 2"-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Even the euro has an inv trough starting out there, so it seems the evidence supports one to some degree. However, this event has the ability to piss many off. The fact that the NAM shows that much qpf is alarming, because even that model may not be totally hitting the mesoscale aspect hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually a bit more for the Philly area... Yeah. .32" based on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Repost to add more locations: JFK: .71" NYC: .77" LGA: .74" EWR: .79" OKX: .40" HPN: .63" PHL: .32" ABE: .63" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I agree. At this point I'd be saying 2 to 4" area wide with areas of 4 to 8 but I think its too early to pinpoint where its going to set up so why jump the gun? Wow, major bust potential with forecasts depending on where that ribbon of heaviest precipitation sets up. I would think interior NW Jersey and extreme NE PA seem the best bet for higher snowfall totals right now based on surface temps and where the models have been setting up the band the past 24-36 hours. Interstate 84 special? Don't forget how big a difference temperatures between 30 and say, 36 degrees make when its snowing during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I have to doubt that the norlun produces such heavy amounts that far inland into NE PA. To be safe, I would cut that area's QPF in half (which would still be a moderate event of 5" or more) 12z NAM has 0.33" for KPNE with ratios that's a good 3-5" but we really shouldn't count on model-output QPF for this event. Just know that someone is going to get that jackpot 8-12" while everyone else sees a solid 2-4". Keep thinking that and consider anything more than 4" bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just spoke to Alan Kasper - he is sticking with 1 to 3 for SNJ and 3 to 6 for the rest of NJ but after seeing Nam he may up totals Thursday morning. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 .38" at PTW Yeah. .32" based on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yeah. .32" based on soundings. more like 3-5" then on this run? I guess the general idea is still the same though....I think ill be able to get there, im worried about when the heaviest of the snow is going to be on friday, cause I would deff have trouble getting back in 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 WSW warning criteria for most of the area is 7" over 12 hours. Wherever the heaviest band sets up should definitly exceed that. I know its hard to pinpoint these events but most of the general public sees a WWA and thinks 1-4". Someone is going to get dumped on and people will be caught suprised and unprepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's going to be fun watching everyone wishcast and rationalize for that band over their backyard for the 2.5 days. NJwinter23 is spot on with his assessment that we won't know for a while and it's why we have the NAM. wishcasting? here? come on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Repost to add more locations: JFK: .71" NYC: .77" LGA: .74" EWR: .79" OKX: .40" HPN: .63" PHL: .32" ABE: .63" SWF .69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm still sticking with: PHL: 1 - 3" ABE/RDG - 2 - 4" MTP - 3 - 5" NEPA + NYS - 5+ Do you think WWA could be issued as early as later today do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm still sticking with: PHL: 1 - 3" ABE/RDG - 2 - 4" MTP - 3 - 5" NEPA + NYS - 5+ Do you think WWA could be issued as early as later today do you think? If they issue anything, it's going to be a Winter storm watch this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Many of the coastal areas that may begin with temps a little higher than areas farther northwest still have snow on the ground. I know around here the woods are still snowcovered at about 80% and people's grass and sidewalks still have snow on them. The snowcover may help the snow to stick by allowing it to pile on top of it and cooling the ground right around the snow already on the ground. Beyond that it's up to dynamics to kill the initial warm boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 My last inverted trough type of snow modeled MBY with 4" jackpot 12hrs before the event (NAM HRW SREFS etc.) I received .5 inches and 10 miles north of me got the 4". This setup is different and I see most folks squeezing out at leaat 1 to 3 from UUL, but someone in a narrow area is going to jackpot between Philly and Boston with 10". On Edit, that same year, 2009 saw a Norlun that popped a wicked gravity wave that forced 6" IMBY when just 1 or 2" was forcasted. Good luck everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I am fairly certain that they will issue a Winter Storm Watch effective for Friday IF the GFS comes out with something similar. If they issue anything, it's going to be a Winter storm watch this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This banding wont be determined until inside of 24 hours. Even inside of 12 hours. And the short term, high-res models will pick it up best; MM5, NMM, ARW, etc. I wouldnt lock totals in until 0z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm still sticking with: PHL: 1 - 3" ABE/RDG - 2 - 4" MTP - 3 - 5" NEPA + NYS - 5+ Do you think WWA could be issued as early as later today do you think? My guess OKX will wait till the 00z runs later and post them in the overnight package. A section of their AFD below: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA FRI...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO REACH WARNING LEVELS...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER. ENHANCED BANDING WITH SUCH A SETUP WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT START TIME...AND EVEN THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES TO THE ORIENTATION. THESE TYPE OF EVENTS ARE RARE AND OFTEN IMPACT A VERY NARROW...YET LONG SWATH. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA FRI...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO REACH WARNING LEVELS...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER. ENHANCED BANDING WITH SUCH A SETUP WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT START TIME...AND EVEN THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES TO THE ORIENTATION. THESE TYPE OF EVENTS ARE RARE AND OFTEN IMPACT A VERY NARROW...YET LONG SWATH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 They will neve issue a watch with this much uncertainty. More likely you will see advisories upgraded to warnings as the event is already underway. Barring a big jump in QPF with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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