A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 pretty impressive qpf amounts from it, i didnt expect this..but between the nam and the gfs, nyc could be dealing with another distruptive snowstorm..ut oh Dont get me wrong, 3-6 is a very decent amount from a set up like this, but I dont think it would be disruptive-- especially since its occurring mostly going into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Dont get me wrong, 3-6 is a very decent amount from a set up like this, but I dont think it would be disruptive-- especially since its occurring mostly going into the weekend. The only thing it will disrupt is the hardcore weekend partiers like A-L-E-X and Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Dont get me wrong, 3-6 is a very decent amount from a set up like this, but I dont think it would be disruptive-- especially since its occurring mostly going into the weekend. 3-6" would be disruptive, nyc never stops running lol large swath of 8" or more in SE new york state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 HPC for the 2nd event is not buying the suppressed OTS routine of the global models.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbgpre.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Are there any analogs for this storm? I would see for myself on that CIPS site but since I'm an idiot I have no clue how to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 One of the most awesome videos ever created Ahhh that was awesome and brought back some fond memories Its hard for some people to understand the sentimentality-- but trying to put it in perspective-- that thing flew over this area every morning at just before a quarter to nine, pretty much around the same time our school bells rang in the morning (elementary school.) So as soon as we heard the roar of the plane we would first look up and then run inside (because we couldnt hear the bells from the outside lol)... so that plane is locked up with much of my childhood. Pretty much took it for granted back then as no one ever expected that thing to ever stop flying. It had the cleanest record of any plane and they were just looking for a reason to shut it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Are there any analogs for this storm? I would see for myself on that CIPS site but since I'm an idiot I have no clue how to use it. There are the analogs for 72 hours...I don't think any of those off memory were big events but I may be wrong... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 3-6" would be disruptive, nyc never stops running lol large swath of 8" or more in SE new york state hmmm a little adjustment and we could easily get in on that 8 inch snowfall I wonder how the city would handle that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There are the analogs for 72 hours...I don't think any of those off memory were big events but I may be wrong... http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=072&flg=new lol 2/10/2010 is on the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wth the infamous 3/10/2001 is also on the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 HPC Heavy Snow Discussion THIS WILL DEVELOP ASFC CYCLONE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON FRI. THE LOW ITSELF ISSTILL PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE... YET ALL GUIDANCE EXTENDSA TROF THROUGH THE DELAWARE RIVER VLY WHERE SFC CONVERGENCECOUPLED WITH THE UPR DYNAMIC SHOULD FOSTER MDT SNOWFALL FOR THENRN MID-ATLC THRU LWR NEW ENG AND SRN NY. GFS IS THE STRONGESTWITH THIS FTR BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTER OUTRIGHT... SO IT WASBLENDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND UKMET TO ACHIEVE ASTRIPE OF 6-8 INCHES IN SRN NY/NORTHEAST PA/NRN NJ. NAM WAS MUCHWEAKER WITH THIS TROF THAN CONSENSUS WITH A FARTHER OFFSHORELOW... YET IT TOO FCSTS MDT SNOWFALL. 00Z GUIDANCE HANDLES THISSFC TROF POSITION RATHER SIMILARLY EXCEPT FOR THE SREF WHICH WAS ANOTABLE OUTLIER NORTHWARD AND WAS DISCOUNTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There are the analogs for 72 hours...I don't think any of those off memory were big events but I may be wrong... http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=072&flg=new I think I remember the 3-10-01 event. It was a moderate storm but it was disruptive because of timing (and perhaps lack of warning?) My family and I got caught in it trying to drive to BDL to go to FL..took us like 3 or 4 hours to get there when it's normally a 50 minute drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Trying not to clog up the thread, but it's 4am...for those interested here's a cool link to the concorde crash video as filmed from a highway nearby. "It was a disaster that took the lives of 109 passengers and crew, and also sounded the deathbell for commercial supersonic travel" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 its mentioned in that article I quoted just under where they said the crash was just an excuse to ground the fleet. yeah, sorry, didn't see that... well i really hope it's true.. even for just a brief flyby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I split the Concorde stuff into OT....so it wouldnt muck up this thread too much. I'm a huge aviation guy and have studied just about every plane crash in US history (and even overseas) so feel free to continue the talk here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Inverted trough feature on the GFS is relatively effecting the same areas but is quicker with it moving thru so has dropped back on the QPF totals . As for the second system on the 6 Z GFS it is back and on the table..verbatim this run http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06174.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06180.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Inverted trough feature on the GFS is relatively effecting the same areas but is quicker with it moving thru so has dropped back on the QPF totals . As for the second system on the 6 Z GFS it is back and on the table..verbatim this run http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06174.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06180.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12192.gif Seems like a fair trade off, dont you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Seems like a fair trade off, dont you think? With the way I see things playing out this month with the potential for cold air and an active pacific...the pattern involved I see absolutely no reason to complain with the way things look to be headed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Still yet another storm threat http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12264.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12276.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12288.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12300.gif And yet another http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12348.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12360.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mt holly ATTM, THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS COULD BE AN ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING EVENT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT. QPF IS GENLY 0.10 OR LESS OVER EXTREME SRN AREAS AROUND 0.25 INCHES FROM PHL NWD AND AROUND 0.50 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME NE. ONE IMPORTANT NOTE HERE IS THAT FCST HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF THESE TEMPS VERIFY, IT WOULD SEEM THAT COULD INHIBIT ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 upton [/url] GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE STRONGEST OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE ACROSS LI...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE STRONGEST OMEGA JUST BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE SNOWFALL RATES AND ULTIMATELY TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. NORLUN TROUGHS ARE ALSO NOTORIOUS FOR SNOW SQUALLS (A.K.A. A WINDEX EVENT)...BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS WILL HAPPEN. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA FRI...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO REACH WARNING LEVELS...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT CONDITIONS COMING TOGETHER. ENHANCED BANDING WITH SUCH A SETUP WILL NOT BE CLEAR UNTIL WITHIN 24 HOURS OF THE EVENT START TIME...AND EVEN THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES TO THE ORIENTATION. THESE TYPE OF EVENTS ARE RARE AND OFTEN IMPACT A VERY NARROW...YET LONG SWATH. LIGHT SNOW STILL LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI AND THEN CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FRI AFTN AND FRI EVE...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AT THE COAST FRI AFTN...COULD CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPS THIS HIGH WOULD EVEN CAUSE IT TO BE A VERY WET SNOW WHICH ALSO DOESN`T ACCUMULATE AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 mt holly ATTM, THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS COULD BE AN ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING EVENT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT. QPF IS GENLY 0.10 OR LESS OVER EXTREME SRN AREAS AROUND 0.25 INCHES FROM PHL NWD AND AROUND 0.50 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME NE. ONE IMPORTANT NOTE HERE IS THAT FCST HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF THESE TEMPS VERIFY, IT WOULD SEEM THAT COULD INHIBIT ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. sounds like theyre going for either 3-6 or 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NWS PHi has Likely pops now. But the high went up from 33° to 39° with the latest package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 if anyone needs a morning pick me-up, check out the 6z GFS. one norlun, two coastals and an over-running in the next 16 days. simply amazing with a -NAO block can do for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 sounds like theyre going for either 3-6 or 4-8 I think verbatiam if the snow was tonight they would go 3-6 from rt 1 corridor-north....2-4 1-95-holmdel and 1-3 south of that....but thats just me.... This will be a good test for nyc as to see how lucky we are this year...im a firm believer in what paul kocin said back in the winter of 04-05 on how it will snow where it has been snowing and not snow where it has not been snowing...granted the sample size is just one storm so far....but i wonder if this is nyc year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think verbatiam if the snow was tonight they would go 3-6 from rt 1 corridor-north....2-4 1-95-holmdel and 1-3 south of that....but thats just me.... This will be a good test for nyc as to see how lucky we are this year...im a firm believer in what paul kocin said back in the winter of 04-05 on how it will snow where it has been snowing and not snow where it has not been snowing...granted the sample size is just one storm so far....but i wonder if this is nyc year? ABC has close to that depiction-- from memory Goldberg had 1-3 for Interior Monmouth County and SW.... 3-6 inches of snow for eastern NJ, NJ, LHV and Western Long Island... he has 6-10 inches for Suffolk County, Most of Connecticut and the Hudson Valley north of Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Seems like a fair trade off, dont you think? Alan Kasper expression more with the first, less with the second, less with the first, more with the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Alan Kasper expression more with the first, less with the second, less with the first, more with the second. Alan who is conervative is forecasting 1 to 3 for S. Jersey, 3 to 6 C/N NJ and some place north of 78 maybe more. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Something I find interesting is the last few runs of the GFS regarding the storm next week. Yesterdays 12Z and 18 Z runs showed very similar outcomes whereas this mornings 0Z run was completely different and suppressed. Now the 6Z run comes back looking the same as the 12Z and 18Z. What was the difference in the data input? I think situations like this offer a good opportunity for the people at NCEP to examine the model to figure out how it comes to these different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Something I find interesting is the last few runs of the GFS regarding the storm next week. Yesterdays 12Z and 18 Z runs showed very similar outcomes whereas this mornings 0Z run was completely different and suppressed. Now the 6Z run comes back looking the same as the 12Z and 18Z. What was the difference in the data input? I think situations like this offer a good opportunity for the people at NCEP to examine the model to figure out how it comes to these different solutions. NAM clowm map had 1-2" from Rt.78 North in NJ/NYC. Must be seeing some warmer surface temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.