Nikolai Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The blocking is not breaking down...there is an absurd ridge over the North Pole, Bering Strait, and Siberia....monster -EPO opening the floodgates for some absurd cold beyond Day 10. Also, I see another high pressure building into Greenland. Nothing on the ECM indicates the blocking is breaking down IMO. Strongly agree. I think we're beginning to see a major signal for both a continuation of blocking and a resurgence of the -NAO in the d10-15 timeframe. While it's not great for severe cold, it's wonderful for sustained cold and continued snow chances, which I'm sure most would prefer to an early 80s style arctic outbreak (not that one of those is off the table before the -NAO comes back swinging). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Strongly agree. I think we're beginning to see a major signal for both a continuation of blocking and a resurgence of the -NAO in the d10-15 timeframe. While it's not great for severe cold, it's wonderful for sustained cold and continued snow chances, which I'm sure most would prefer to an early 80s style arctic outbreak (not that one of those is off the table before the -NAO comes back swinging). What we want is to get the PV down before the NAO bleeds in too much. That will bring us the -36C 850s that are showing up over Canada in the Day 10 ECM. Then we want the NAO to rebuild so we can sustain that cold and get some snow threats. This is just a ridiculous map BTW, you can see the cold headed straight for the East Coast with increasing heights out West, major arctic air: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Strongly agree. I think we're beginning to see a major signal for both a continuation of blocking and a resurgence of the -NAO in the d10-15 timeframe. While it's not great for severe cold, it's wonderful for sustained cold and continued snow chances, which I'm sure most would prefer to an early 80s style arctic outbreak (not that one of those is off the table before the -NAO comes back swinging). I was just thinking of that too. I dont know about everyone else, but I would give up my chances for seeing below zero temps to get a month like Jan 2004. Jan 1985 and even Jan 1994-- not all that exciting here. Well, we had a historic ice storm in Jan 1994, but that was about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The sleet was a problem for LI and coastal NJ I think...LGA the belief is there was LI Sound enhancement...the snow on the 20th was generally not forecast...as you see the surface low was well NE by that morning but that 500 vort had a surprise as often happens. Yeah, JFK needed that surprise to get in line with the other reporting stations, as we had mostly sleet overnight. We pretty much caught up to NYC with the surprise snow the next day. The period between that and the Jan blizzard was the best time for sustained cold and snowcover that winter; that storm stalled to our NE and continually pumped down arctic air and the snowcover from that storm actually lasted right into the big blizzard. That storm was the best example of LGA sound enhancement I can think of-- NYC had 8 inches and LGA had 14-- almost double! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wasn't there another inverted trof kind of setup in the 06-08 years timeframe, im not sure what year it was. I just remember being at college and seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wasn't there another inverted trof kind of setup in the 06-08 years timeframe, im not sure what year it was. I just remember being at college and seeing it. That could be the one that hit C-SNJ that I just remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That could be the one that hit C-SNJ that I just remembered. yea it might of been, i remember being in college in doylestown and they got like a couple inches form it. But i think nj got hit harder. is this the right map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yea it might of been, i remember being in college in doylestown and they got like a couple inches form it. But i think nj got hit harder. is this the right map? That was not a norlun type trough...it was an anafrontal storm which got S NJ good. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2006/us0115.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yea it might of been, i remember being in college in doylestown and they got like a couple inches form it. But i think nj got hit harder. is this the right map? I don't believe so...that may have been that Saturday night event that pounded the ACY area, but that was strictly upper level induced as you see below...the setup at 500 overall resembles the event that dropped 3-4 inches in Nassau county earlier this month and 1-2 over Queens....I have posted many times that the setup shown below and the one that produced the event I mention above with those mega-negative tilt troughs over the NE US with surface lows near BOS are deadly for the NYC/LI/NJ area as far as dropping unexepected snowfalls. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2006/us0115.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 for the 2nd storm the gfs indiv ens runs have a good amt of hits on the tot qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That was not a norlun type trough...it was an anafrontal storm which got S NJ good. http://www.meteo.psu...2006/us0115.php ahh ok thanks... i know there is deff is another inverted trof that hit this area in the 2000s besides 09, i just cant't think of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 2/3/09 may have been the norlun setup for NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't believe so...that may have been that Saturday night event that pounded the ACY area, but that was strictly upper level induced as you see below...the setup at 500 overall resembles the event that dropped 3-4 inches in Nassau county earlier this month and 1-2 over Queens....I have posted many times that the setup shown below and the one that produced the event I mention above with those mega-negative tilt troughs over the NE US with surface lows near BOS are deadly for the NYC/LI/NJ area as far as dropping unexepected snowfalls. http://www.meteo.psu...2006/us0115.php SG, when was that storm that dropped 3-4 inches in Nassau? Did you mean Jan 09? The storm Tombo is referencing, I remember well-- it occurred in the middle of a very mild pattern, and was a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 2/3/09 may have been the norlun setup for NJ yea i remember that one, i got 8 inches from that...but i thought there was another before that... i just can't find it on ray's or the nws archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SG, when was that storm that dropped 3-4 inches in Nassau? Did you mean Jan 09? The storm Tombo is referencing, I remember well-- it occurred in the middle of a very mild pattern, and was a surprise. No, the one in mid-December this past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 2/3/09 may have been the norlun setup for NJ Yeah that got the area from delaware to se pa to c nj pretty good lol-- I remember that was originally forecast to be a monster apps runner on the euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No, the one in mid-December this past month. Oh, we only got like 0.5-1 in that one-- maybe eastern Nassau did better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 pretty good hits in there on the indiv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 About 6 hits on there, not bad...We got a long way to go on that one srefs and nam should be coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres the clown map from the 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That area between the Poconos and the Catskills seems a bit overdone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS is pounding the infamous Bermuda triangle region there in SE NY near Monticello and the Catskills where the elevation often enhances amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 idk why, but something tells me this Fri event may surprise. Someone see's 6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS is pounding the infamous Bermuda triangle region there in SE NY near Monticello and the Catskills where the elevation often enhances amounts. Monticello probably averages the highest snowfall in our region-- but I dont know if you could exactly consider it our region-- being there makes you feel like youre in the middle of Montana lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS is pounding the infamous Bermuda triangle region there in SE NY near Monticello and the Catskills where the elevation often enhances amounts. And they really are usually enhanced, having spent a large amount of my youth near Roscoe,NY I can tell you the area does really well largely due to high ratios and upsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wasn't there another inverted trof kind of setup in the 06-08 years timeframe, im not sure what year it was. I just remember being at college and seeing it. Are you thinking of the January 28-29, 2007 event? Pretty sure that was a norlun setup wasn't it? http://www.njfreeway.../28-Jan-07.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres the clown map from the 0z gfs I like the Black Hills concentric ring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Monticello probably averages the highest snowfall in our region-- but I dont know if you could exactly consider it our region-- being there makes you feel like youre in the middle of Montana lol. Im about a 15 min drive SE of Monticello and they average 50% more then I do! I believe the average elevation in the town itself is roughly 1500' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The BH have to be the most amazing place if you like extreme weather-- they have some of the most incredible temp rises and falls Ive ever heard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Monticello probably averages the highest snowfall in our region-- but I dont know if you could exactly consider it our region-- being there makes you feel like youre in the middle of Montana lol. Don't tell that my mother... Gotta remember the borch belt. My great aunt still lives up there... How? I have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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