earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Regarding the second storm, the southern stream shortwave is weaker and the blocking is stronger. The only hope to get that feature up the coast would be for the Pac energy to get involved which is currently back west across the Plains. So there's a high chance this run is going to shear it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 132 has a sub 1012 low east of savannah....lgt precip up to southern va...pretty big snow and ice storm for deep south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 check again, .50 Liquid is 6 inches from Euro im colorblind, no lie all the greens seem the same color to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Enjoy, this looks like it maybe your winter, after DC and BWI had last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 im colorblind, no lie all the greens seem the same color to me It's literally .50 liquid on the nose. Take it for what it's worth (nothing) on an inverted trough setup at 78 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the southern stomr is moving out hr 144...the plains storm really sheared out, just an area of lgt precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 im colorblind, no lie all the greens seem the same color to me All good dude, and Im sure that is the Jackpot while alot of areas get 1-3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love seeing major snow and ice storms depicted for the TN Valley and Deep South in the longer range during La Nina winters because we know where they often wind up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's literally .50 liquid on the nose. Take it for what it's worth (nothing) on an inverted trough setup at 78 hrs. I think it starts to mean a bit more when all the models converge on that location, as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Enjoy, this looks like it maybe your winter, after DC and BWI had last year. Inverted trough's are illusions most of the time..until it is snowing I will not be enjoying anything. Still wishing you feet of snow dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 150 just has a tiny area of precip over the state of missouri at hr 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I think it starts to mean a bit more when all the models converge on that location, as we get closer. It starts to get my attention, yeah, but I have seen models (all of them, or a good majority of them) bust horrendously inside 24 hours with inverted troughs so I will not bite this time simply because it's giving my location snow. I've seen busts in every way possible. Off by hundreds of miles with the axis, too strong with the feature, too much QPF, whatever it may be..I would say over the past 3 or 4 years I have seen all of them mis-modeled within 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Inverted trough's are illusions most of the time..until it is snowing I will not be enjoying anything. Still wishing you feet of snow dude. Very true; this is sh** for me......I'm moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Euro is really trying to intrude arctic air into the CONUS by 156 hrs, it's just flowing south out of the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It starts to get my attention, yeah, but I have seen models (all of them, or a good majority of them) bust horrendously inside 24 hours with inverted troughs so I will not bite this time simply because it's giving my location snow. I've seen busts in every way possible. Off by hundreds of miles with the axis, too strong with the feature, too much QPF, whatever it may be..I would say over the past 3 or 4 years I have seen all of them mis-modeled within 48 hrs. I wouldn't be shocked to see it end up more toward my area and se NH\sw ME, where it is more climo favored, but who knows....good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The Euro is really trying to intrude arctic air into the CONUS by 156 hrs, it's just flowing south out of the arctic. What are the 850s though? Because if one looked at the 500mb map for NY in 72 hours you'd think the 2nd coming of 1899 was here and then you see 850s are only -12 at most, maybe some -15c areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love seeing major snow and ice storms depicted for the TN Valley and Deep South in the longer range during La Nina winters because we know where they often wind up atlanta gets over an inch of qpf all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked to see it end up more toward my area and se NH\sw ME, where it is more climo favored, but who knows....good luck. The Euro is actually trying to develop two of them at 78 hrs..one just misses getting to Mass at that point while the other is over my house. 78 hrs is still a long ways with all of these delicate PV interactions ongoing--this will not be the final solution and little tweaks can move inverted troughs by hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked to see it end up more toward my area and se NH\sw ME, where it is more climo favored, but who knows....good luck. One thing is for sure, the region depicted for the hit on the norlun feature is not a climatologically favored area at all...LI/CT as well as parts of NJ to the south of NYC are typically more favored in the PHL-Toms River corridor or a bit north...the zone across NYC-ISP-MSV is not a region historically favored for that setup which is why we could see the end result be more northeast of there...I don't think it will be further SW as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 atlanta gets over an inch of qpf all frozen I think that will be coming up north in Later Runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What are the 850s though? Because if one looked at the 500mb map for NY in 72 hours you'd think the 2nd coming of 1899 was here and then you see 850s are only -12 at most, maybe some -15c areas. Anywhere north and west of a line from Central AR, bending northeast to Central VA, towards DC, into NWNJ and into Vermont is below -12 C H85 temps. The Plains are lower than -16. So it's a big outbreak of arctic air..nothing absolutely historic but it's very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love seeing major snow and ice storms depicted for the TN Valley and Deep South in the longer range during La Nina winters because we know where they often wind up But this year a lot of the events seem to stay down there, thinking of the 12/5 clipper and the mid-December overrunning which mostly affected VA and NC. They've been exceedingly lucky for a strong La Niña although it wouldn't take much to bring the next storm north if the first ULL moves out a bit quicker with the southern stream stronger than progged as we saw 12/26. Inverted trough's are illusions most of the time..until it is snowing I will not be enjoying anything. Still wishing you feet of snow dude. It's interesting how the models are all converging on NYC for the location of this inverted trough, despite the fact climatology favors New England in these events. We'll see if the models can hold this surface depiction, and then we might be talking about a surprise snowstorm for NYC metro out of what looked like nothing. Overall, the trends aren't very good for BOS but these are generally subject to bumps north in time as we approach the event. NYC is pretty much guaranteed 1-2" from the arctic front but we'll see who gets more. The Euro is really trying to intrude arctic air into the CONUS by 156 hrs, it's just flowing south out of the arctic. With the EPO block bleeding into the North Pole and Siberia, Canada is going to get brutally cold. The breakdown of the -NAO means that the PV can be forced south into the CONUS through Greenland and Baffin Bay/Hudson Bay, a great set-up for brutal cold in NYC. It basically becomes trapped by the higher heights over the North Pole and Alaska, and has to descend towards the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anywhere north and west of a line from Central AR, bending northeast to Central VA, towards DC, into NWNJ and into Vermont is below -12 C H85 temps. The Plains are lower than -16. So it's a big outbreak of arctic air..nothing absolutely historic but it's very cold. Sounds like a wide extent of cold air but nothing that impressive. Surface temperatures may be pretty chilly under that 1050mb high out west, though. The real outbreak of -30C 850s isn't going to come until the end of the run when the PV gets trapped and pulled down, if that happens this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nate, I think we can throw climatology out the window in patterns like this. Remember Feb 09 lol? The inverted trough was down by Philly.... also a la nina and also with nice blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love seeing major snow and ice storms depicted for the TN Valley and Deep South in the longer range during La Nina winters because we know where they often wind up Often is the key term..this is not your typical Enso state La Nina winter. The blocking is through the roof still at that point. Like I said earlier when people were whining about lakes cutters..there's a much better chance of the storm being suppressed than coming northwest and giving us liquid precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here comes the PV now into Central Canada at 180 hrs..heights are dropping rapidly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 There's actually some higher heights over Eastern Canada which may force the PV westward a bit instead of southeast into the Central and Eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Enjoy, this looks like it maybe your winter, after DC and BWI had last year. I think this winter will be more evenly distributed. Don seems to think so, I think he had NYC pegged for 40 inches plus and Boston pegged for 50 inches plus. Granted, 50 inches isnt that much above Boston's average, but I think he was giving some leeway for potentially higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here comes the PV now into Central Canada at 180 hrs..heights are dropping rapidly there. Nothing historic beforehand, but after we get past a week or so... What's your over/under on NYC getting below 0? I think we'll still have a great snowpack, especially if the next event comes through, but I'd still say there's only a 20% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Often is the key term..this is not your typical Enso state La Nina winter. The blocking is through the roof still at that point. Like I said earlier when people were whining about lakes cutters..there's a much better chance of the storm being suppressed than coming northwest and giving us liquid precipitation. true, but the runs have backed off on the amount of digging with the storm in the southern plains area. Its not amplified at all really, its just really flat, but all related again to the block which is progged stronger now vs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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