Matt Hammer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nothing on radar... snowflakes were very light and fluffy... I'd say quarter sized. Very pretty to look at. Seeing them here in Setauket... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nothing on radar... snowflakes were very light and fluffy... I'd say quarter sized. Very pretty to look at. As far as I can tell KOKX radar isn't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree. 2 to 4" areawide is even a bit generous right now I think. Completely nitpicking here, but i think most locations will be on the 2 side rather than the 4 side in a 2-4 forecast. This is based upon the ever diminishing qpf forecasts from the models. Mt Holly is not as excited as upton for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah they did: TO ADD YET ANOTHER PIECE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR ENOUGH ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT. Don't think that means it's close enough to pump up a QPF however. Its probably a matter of the low developing "too late" to be of much impact-- ordinarily a low in that position would be great for us, however, those that are usually start further to the south and then track over that region later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 KPHL and KUNV are down as well As far as I can tell KOKX radar isn't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still falling here. I'm a couple of miles north of town. Is the wind trajectory sufficient to get some sound effect snow showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nothing on radar... snowflakes were very light and fluffy... I'd say quarter sized. Very pretty to look at. OKX and Mt Holly radar both seem to be out at the moment. OKX did show some precip over the north shore of western LI (i.e., Queens/Nassau) before it went out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is the wind trajectory sufficient to get some sound effect snow showers? Probably not. More likely its just some WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree. 2 to 4" areawide is even a bit generous right now I think. I agree as well. I think a general 1 to 3 inch snowfall is the way to go. Folks that are lucky enough to be in the narrow heavier band can see 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's fine, because Monticello is not even in Orange County, so I don't know if it should even be lumped with the rest of the metro area. Monticello is about a 90 mile drive to the Bronx line on Rt17/I87. It is central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 OKX and Mt Holly radar both seem to be out at the moment. OKX did show some precip over the north shore of western LI (i.e., Queens/Nassau) before it went out. Yep both down: RADAR FREE TEXT MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1054 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT UPTON NY (KOKX) IS DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY NOUS61 KPHI 060217 FTMDIX Message Date: Jan 06 2011 02:17:34 The KDIX Doppler Radar will remain down for maintenance until at least 21Z/4 PM on Thursday, January 6, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep both down: RADAR FREE TEXT MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1054 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT UPTON NY (KOKX) IS DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY NOUS61 KPHI 060217 FTMDIX Message Date: Jan 06 2011 02:17:34 The KDIX Doppler Radar will remain down for maintenance until at least 21Z/4 PM on Thursday, January 6, 2011. Hey, how cold were you this morning? We had lows close to 20 here. Did you see snow flurries too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so... how is the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey, how cold were you this morning? We had lows close to 20 here. Did you see snow flurries too? Got down to 14.5 in Muttontown this morning. Here in Great Neck I didn't see any flurries this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1pm NWS update from PHI http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off THERE ARE SEVERAL TRENDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LATEST MDL GUIDANCE. THE FIRST IS THAT THE OVERALL QPF IS LOWER, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE SECOND TREND IS THAT, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NRN NJ, MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE WITH PRECIP BY 00Z, WITH SRN AREAS DONE EVEN SOONER. ACRS THE FAR N, IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 06Z SAT TO FINISH UP. BASED ON THESE MODEL SIGNALS INDICATING REDUCED SNOWFALL AMTS, IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE AN ADVISORY EVENT ACRS THE FAR N AND BELOW ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. IT MAY END UP THAT WE ARE BORDERLINE ADVISORY FURTHER S, IF LATER GUID COMES IN WITH HIGHER QPF, BUT THAT CAN BE ADDRESSED BY LATER SHIFTS. WITH AFTN HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID 30S IN MANY AREAS THAT MAY HELP IMPEDE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS. ----- I'd be a bit concerned not issusing an advisory for their central zones based solely on the timing of the period of snow. It could be a real mess between 6-10am in the northwest (25-50 miles) Philly suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Perhaps a silly question from an amateur - everything I have read about this type of system is that it is unstable and relatively hard to forecast. The primer that someone had posted a few dozen pages back about the events in Maine and the Cape mentioned that the systems caught everyone totally unaware. Now, I understand that the models have improved since then, and more attention is being paid to this type of system. Is there any remaining sense, however, that the QPF amounts, and the relative strength of the system, are still going to be poorly-modeled? So, would it be fair to say that the more important feature on the models is the existence of "a storm," while all of the details, including QPF, the set-up of the strongest band, etc., are really going to be beyond the ability of the models to accurate forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so... how is the euro? Heard NYC is about .30" but haven't seen it myself. I'm driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep both down: RADAR FREE TEXT MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1054 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT UPTON NY (KOKX) IS DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY NOUS61 KPHI 060217 FTMDIX Message Date: Jan 06 2011 02:17:34 The KDIX Doppler Radar will remain down for maintenance until at least 21Z/4 PM on Thursday, January 6, 2011. If I may, a link to a radar independent from the NWS... FOX 5's Sky Guardian http://www.myfoxny.c...x/weather/radar ... not the greatest in terms of detail, but a good auxiliary radar while the others are down... it is indicating spotty snow showers over Long Island and just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 According to latest HWO from MT Holly, they are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 4pm on Friday. Advisory not issued yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 According to latest HWO from MT Holly, they are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory from 1am to 4pm on Friday. Advisory not issued yet. northern zones only at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Got down to 14.5 in Muttontown this morning. Here in Great Neck I didn't see any flurries this morning. Low of 20.3F here in Westchester....currently 29.4F and OVC. I don't really see the worry about temperatures wtih this system, it's more a problem of getting into the heavier banding and avoiding the Norlun moving NE too fast to give a solid accumulation. 850mb temperatures range from approximately -8C at the beginning of the snowfall to -11C at the end of the event, so it looks as if most places will be in the upper 20s/low 30s with snow immediately sticking to roads if it falls heavily enough. I think people always make too much of an issue of BL temps, and that's especially true here with an early January sun angle and cold 850s as well as some decent dynamics. Overall, we seem to be starting another cold and snowy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the euro is .10+ for all of us...perhaps close to .20 in the city...and .25+ for eastern LI and all of ct there is two period of snow on the euro one 2morrow...and then again saturday...it spins up a late costal off acy....hr 60 it about 200 miles se of the eastern tip of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 northern zones only at this time. The coding includes Delaware County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, I didn't even expect to get a Winter Weather Advisory here in King of Prussia: BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY- 104 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The coding includes Delaware County. Yes, and Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The coding includes Delaware County. That's odd based on their 1pm disco... BASED ON THESE MODEL SIGNALS INDICATING REDUCED SNOWFALL AMTS, IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE AN ADVISORY EVENT ACRS THE FAR N AND BELOW ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. IT MAY END UP THAT WE ARE BORDERLINE ADVISORY FURTHER S, IF LATER GUID COMES IN WITH HIGHER QPF, BUT THAT CAN BE ADDRESSED BY LATER SHIFTS. WITH AFTN HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE MID 30S IN MANY AREAS THAT MAY HELP IMPEDE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS. I guess I read it wrong, and they are issuing regionwide, and maybe cutting back later. That makes more sense. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think in this carse, its better to be safe (and issue the advisory as 1" of snow could cause havoc for the morning commute) than sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anything on Euro for next weeks storm? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anything on Euro for next weeks storm? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Mt Holly Advisory is now out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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