snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 MGJ -- .65" FWN -- .50" SWF -- .63" All above are gonna have decent ratios as well... That may be true, but at the surface it'll be at or just above 32, so the minute it lands it'll at least begin melting and compacting. Since official measurements are made every six hours, verifying high totals could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not in those locations up north. They'll be in the 20s to near 30 most likely That may be true, but at the surface it'll be at or just above 32, so the minute it lands it'll at least begin melting and compacting. Since official measurements are made every six hours, verifying high totals could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not in those locations up north. They'll be in the 20s to near 30 most likely Yeah plus the hillier areas may benefit from some orographic effects. I just never really consider them part of the metro area, but that's because I have a 95-centric view of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 gfs is .10+ from ttn-nyc.....nyc prob about .20.... and .25+ for pretty much all of ct and eastern NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not in those locations up north. They'll be in the 20s to near 30 most likely I would agree. Especially for the areas with any decent elevation of 500'+ and especially 750'+. I believe each of those stations are in fact low as KFWN is about 450' but many areas around there range in the 500-1000'+ range. Not say they will not have BL issues but they should overcome them if they exist very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Are you in Orange County? I consider that part of the metro-- but I dont know about Monticello lol (although I see it listed on the colored map as part of the metro area.) Yes I live in Orange county.. Monticello is far... even from here it is. Im about 53 miles from Manhattan where Monticello is 73 miles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At times they use 287 that runs thru Westchester and Rockland and 84 that runs thru Dutchess and Orange counties as rain/snow lines in forcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That may be true, but at the surface it'll be at or just above 32, so the minute it lands it'll at least begin melting and compacting. Since official measurements are made every six hours, verifying high totals could be an issue. You really think it's going to be above 32 THAT far North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes I live in Orange county.. Monticello is far... even from here it is. Im about 53 miles from Manhattan where Monticello is 73 miles.. That's fine, because Monticello is not even in Orange County, so I don't know if it should even be lumped with the rest of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 MM5 hour 30. Need to pay attention to this model for banding. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's fine, because Monticello is not even in Orange County, so I don't know if it should even be lumped with the rest of the metro area. Yeah Monticello is in Sullivan county & more central NYS then it is SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You really think it's going to be above 32 THAT far North? I dont think he realized where they were until 15 ppl told him at the same time..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SUNY MM5 @ Hour 33: Banding over the Twin Forks and developing over Northern NJ/NYC/Nassau/SENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 MM5 hour 30. Need to pay attention to this model for banding. : When we had Ekster as a met (pardon if the spelling is incorrect) working at OKX. He liked and used this model for short term forcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the usual snowhole of Groton might do well with this-- as long as BL temps arent a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Intense banding for LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Intense banding for LI: And up in central NY. Looks liks a squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the usual snowhole of Groton might do well with this-- as long as BL temps arent a concern. Gonna be close there as usual. OKX is talking about a possible changeover for eastern LI, so if not a changeover at GON then sloppy accumulations - at least during the day. An east wind isn't favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Gonna be close there as usual. OKX is talking about a possible changeover for eastern LI, so if not a changeover at GON then sloppy accumulations - at least during the day. An east wind isn't favorable. Did their discussion contain something about a low that would make a really close approach to Montauk? Wouldnt that mean we shouldnt be so dependent on the norlun and could get some snow out of the coastal low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Damn it...squall line looks about 3 miles to my east... I have dinner plans Friday night in Western Suffolk...should i cancel these? MM5 says yes cancel them. But this event to me seems like a snow lottery. There will be a 20-30 mile (wide) band of heavy snow that could setup almost anywhere in a ~150 mile span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Damn it...squall line looks about 3 miles to my east... I have dinner plans Friday night in Western Suffolk...should i cancel these? Hard call. You would have to wait till nowcasting time and watch the radar and see where the heavy stuff sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This forecast seems pretty simple.. Obviously narrowing down the exact location of this heavy band of snow is what is difficult.. Generally a 2-4" snowfall seems likely with isolated 6"+ amounts.. That's it. Nobody knows where that 6" event is going to set up.. The one thing I disagree with is this Winter storm Watch... This is a Snow advisory type of event at best.. If we were talking about a region wide 5-8"+ event, then a WSW would be warranted. However, with marginal temps to begin w/, perhaps this is only a Winter Weather Advisory event.. Hey- i hope I am wrong, but a general 2-4" event seems likely.. Anyone who gets more will have won the lottery w/ this event.. jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Did their discussion contain something about a low that would make a really close approach to Montauk? Wouldnt that mean we shouldnt be so dependent on the norlun and could get some snow out of the coastal low? Yeah they did: TO ADD YET ANOTHER PIECE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR ENOUGH ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT. Don't think that means it's close enough to pump up a QPF however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 MM5 says yes cancel them. But this event to me seems like a snow lottery. There will be a 20-30 mile (wide) band of heavy snow that could setup almost anywhere in a ~150 mile span. Perfectly stated. Wish I thought to describe it like that! It's impossible to predict where the banding will set up unfortunately and this will frustrate some people, but the best we can do at this point is continue to call a general 2"-4", with the potential for higher amounts in any banding that may develop. Will be watching closely along with the rest of you! My thoughts on this storm are hereif anyone wishes to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This forecast seems pretty simple.. Obviously narrowing down the exact location of this heavy band of snow is what is difficult.. Generally a 2-4" snowfall seems likely with isolated 6"+ amounts.. That's it. Nobody knows where that 6" event is going to set up.. The one thing I disagree with is this Winter storm Watch... This is a Snow advisory type of event at best.. If we were talking about a region wide 5-8"+ event, then a WSW would be warranted. However, with marginal temps to begin w/, perhaps this is only a Winter Weather Advisory event.. Hey- i hope I am wrong, but a general 2-4" event seems likely.. Anyone who gets more will have won the lottery w/ this event.. jeff that's what I'm thinking also...It will clean up the black snow we have now...Next week might be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Weird. Just saw big fat flakes falling for about 10 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Weird. Just saw big fat flakes falling for about 10 minutes... Still falling here. I'm a couple of miles north of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hard call. You would have to wait till nowcasting time and watch the radar and see where the heavy stuff sets up. Yea I guess. Im happy to be getting a non-blizzard with this event. shoveling 4 feet of snow sucked. 3 inches will be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nothing on radar... snowflakes were very light and fluffy... I'd say quarter sized. Very pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Completely nitpicking here, but i think most locations will be on the 2 side rather than the 4 side in a 2-4 forecast. This is based upon the ever diminishing qpf forecasts from the models. Mt Holly is not as excited as upton for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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