ParanormalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't trust the NAM right now. I hope this verifies but cut qpf by 1/3rd and maybe we're more in line with what is likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yea, that was being shown on the modeling as getting up to a foot or snow-- at least part of ski country will do well. Right in time for the weekend, too. Do you have a take on next week's system? Some potential there? I am going to Hunter saturday morning that is not influencing my forecast LOL. Hopefully the roads will be ok by then, going to leave very early. As for next week the potential is there no doubt. I am actually more concerned that we have precip issues at the coast (at least to start) than the storm going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm thinking the band will probably set up somewhere east of nyc suffolk/nassau border, sw conneticut, hudson valley and the catskills with the higher terrain getting noticably more though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Steve D says ...4-8 NYC area 6-12 LI ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Steve D says ...4-8 NYC area 6-12 LI ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Am I seeing the same NAM everyone else is? I don't see what looks so "great" about this run. No one except for a small dot near Fairfield County, CT even hits 0.5" QPF. I mean I'll take 2-4", but I dunno... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 His call for the Blizzard was better than most others actually, and he did well last year too. This call may bust though, but if he busts, then DT busts even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nothing wrong with 1-3 inches. Not every storm is going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 His call for the Blizzard was better than most others actually, and he did well last year too. This call may bust though, but if he busts, then DT busts even worse. DT has 12-16 for me--talk about swinging for the fences... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not really because DT goes with 1 to 3" just SW of the city (unless he updated this morning), Steve is going with 3 to 6 even way down into central NJ. Personally i'm planning on 1 to 3" and will be perfectly happy with that but ecstatic if we do get the 4+ His call for the Blizzard was better than most others actually, and he did well last year too. This call may bust though, but if he busts, then DT busts even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not really because DT goes with 1 to 3" just SW of the city (unless he updated this morning), Steve is going with 3 to 6 even way down into central NJ. Personally i'm planning on 1 to 3" and will be perfectly happy with that but ecstatic if we do get the 4+ I agree, I'm hoping for an inch or two. Anything more would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Am I seeing the same NAM everyone else is? I don't see what looks so "great" about this run. No one except for a small dot near Fairfield County, CT even hits 0.5" QPF. I mean I'll take 2-4", but I dunno... I have 0.64 here at KSWF http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kswf.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Am I seeing the same NAM everyone else is? I don't see what looks so "great" about this run. No one except for a small dot near Fairfield County, CT even hits 0.5" QPF. I mean I'll take 2-4", but I dunno... Despite the NAMs more modest qpf since 0z I think the larger scale dynamics present especially in the mid and upper levels argue this band could get rather intense in a localized corridor. I would not be surprised if NAM and more so the regional high res models show an uptick in qpf in the next several runs. Of course this may not happen but I would actually be mored surprised if I did not seem at least some increase vs staying the same. All and all though it is the interior areas of higher terrian that will do the best. High Point NJ north to the Catskills. There will be 12"+ totals somewhere in there and I said it last night and still feel it that I will not be surprised come Saturday if a few reports of 15" and maybe even 20" come out of the Catskills region. A nice local snowstorm for a few and light to perhaps moderate event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks just like WAA off the water to me. The colder ocean temps definitely help in situations like these. Gernerally 36-37F water temps along the shore right now, so most places 5+ miles away from the beach should be able to stay around freezing when the pcpn comes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Am I seeing the same NAM everyone else is? I don't see what looks so "great" about this run. No one except for a small dot near Fairfield County, CT even hits 0.5" QPF. I mean I'll take 2-4", but I dunno... LOL exactly how I felt. I read a few encouraging posts before I saw the 12z NAM, only to look and see I was in the .1-.25 qpf with NYC BARELY on the .25 line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nothing wrong with 1-3 inches. Not every storm is going to be huge. Maybe you can build another snowman with the left over snow + what you get in the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z NAM QPF NYC : 0.31 EWR: 0.25 JFK: 0.27 TTN : 0.16 BLM : 0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z NAM QPF NYC : 0.31 EWR: 0.25 JFK: 0.27 TTN : 0.16 BLM : 0.15 Just adding Teterboro: TEB: .31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LGA: .31" HPN: .41" BDR: .40" Temps start at 32-33 and drop to mid-20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Albany in about.85 on the nam and the ski areas should do very well from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the Nam finally came back down to Earth. 2-4" is a good guess for most people, maybe locally 6" where banding holds on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the Nam finally came back down to Earth. 2-4" is a good guess for most people, maybe locally 6" where banding holds on. I still think a very thin band of 6"+ is possible in the highest QPF/best ratios area, probably the lower hudson valley at this point. But yeah, a general 2-4" looks reasonable for N/C NJ/NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Clown map is kinda depressing for the I-95 crowd. Capital region FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Even though we seem to be nailing down the orientation and location of this band I do not think we have nailied down the qpf. Still think it may trend heavier with in the core of the band. Perhaps a 25 mile wide core with in the general 50-75 wide band. Could still also be a few surprise as in only slight adjustments in its placement or intensity along with timing of intensity mean big differences on the local level. Again this will be a very nice localized snowstorm for a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 AM the ski regions really need this, so Im actually glad theyre getting hit. Hopefully we can cash in next week, but between cutter, hugger, coastal and OTS, we wont really know until this one is out of the way. A few of the mets have been saying that the weaker this one is, the more the next one might amplify. Is that a usual rule to follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Rgem is OK. Nothing special. Appears to have 5mm-7.5mm for NYC. So about .20"-.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 A few of the mets have been saying that the weaker this one is, the more the next one might amplify. Is that a usual rule to follow? The implication is that the weaker this stays, the quicker the 50/50 that it becomes moves out, and therefore the more likely next week's system will have room to move up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Those clown maps are taking into account the "warmer" boundary layer that would be found near the coast. I think it is greatly exaggerated in the same way it shows 2 feet of snow with almost every coastal at some place or another on the opposite side of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 People take what you can get and be happy the precip band is even being progged in you area. This could easily turn ugly with the slightest shift northeastward. My current mentality is that I don't expect to see any snow on the ground and whatever falls and sticks is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Am I seeing the same NAM everyone else is? I don't see what looks so "great" about this run. No one except for a small dot near Fairfield County, CT even hits 0.5" QPF. I mean I'll take 2-4", but I dunno... MGJ -- .65" FWN -- .50" SWF -- .63" All above are gonna have decent ratios as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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