A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'll take my chances with 33 degrees, moderate precipitation, and the sun almost at sunset. hell, with good rates that would work out for us under a full sun even in early april lol. But how good is the snowfall rate is going to be the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How do you guys feel about pavement temps and forcast highs tomorrow? You feel main rds wet? parkinglots and side streets slushy? If you're in an area with lots of traffic, pavement/concrete, etc. (NYC metro) I don't think roads will be much of an issue. Temps at or above 32 + light rate of snow + plows/salt/sand + plus tons of traffic = difficulty accumulating snow on the roads. The lesser travelled side streets and parking lots will probably have snow on them, more so outside of the more urbanized areas, but this is going to be a light snowfall for most of us. We're talking a 2-5 or 3-6 type deal over 18-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If you're in an area with lots of traffic, pavement/concrete, etc. (NYC metro) I don't think roads will be much of an issue. Temps at or above 32 + light rate of snow + plows/salt/sand + plus tons of traffic = difficulty accumulating snow on the roads. The lesser travelled side streets and parking lots will probably have snow on them, more so outside of the more urbanized areas, but this is going to be a light snowfall for most of us. We're talking a 2-5 or 3-6 type deal over 18-24 hours. Is this thing really supposed to last 24 hours? I thought it was going to be 12 hours at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I personally believe this band on a nw/se axis will swing northeast through the area intensifying between PHL/NYC during morning rush hour, but only make for a period of intense snowfall for maybe 2 hours between PHL/NYC, including NYC too...some light snow on either end of that couple hour band swinging through. then it stalls out northeast of the city in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is this thing really supposed to last 24 hours? I thought it was going to be 12 hours at most. Sounds like some light snow breaks out tonight especially over N NJ into SE NY, perhaps in the city between 2 and 5 AM. I expect to see at least some light snow around for tomorrow's rush, though nothing that would impede travel - though as we learned last New Year's Eve a light coating of snow and subfreezing temps could pose a problem on untreated roads. It's not really forecast to stop until later tomorrow night, so you figure it's about an 18-24 hour deal depending on your location. I think OKX mentioned in their AFD due to long duration the 24 hour WSW criteria would be used if they chose to upgrade the watch anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I personally believe this band on a nw/se axis will swing northeast through the area intensifying between PHL/NYC during morning rush hour, but only make for a period of intense snowfall for maybe 2 hours between PHL/NYC, including NYC too...some light snow on either end of that couple hour band swinging through. then it stalls out northeast of the city in my opinion. If that two hours falls between 6 am and 8 am we could be in some serious trouble.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If that two hours falls between 6 am and 8 am we could be in some serious trouble.... I think its more likely on Long Island between 6pm-8pm (or a little earlier). The evening rush could be a mess IMO. That looks nasty for Nassau and western Suffolk in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Winter Storm Watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Winter Storm Watch.... lol, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SREFS are a solid .25-.50" throughout the area. Lots of individual members are much heavier for NYC and surrounding area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol, thanks. Weenie Storm Watch If the media keeps throwing out those 3-6 inch totals and we get just an inch or 2 it could get ugly on here on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I always thought the nam is good with stuff like this...as its a great 48 hr model and picking up on features.......i mean people all the time try to guess on what it says after 84 hrs......i would not be shock if the nam scores a coup here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 out to hr 30 on the nam.....light snow started at hr 24..... .1 is approching western nj......mod snow in PA..... .1+ out there so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 33 the nam has mod snow for cnj-nnj....also the city.....spot of heavy snow nw jersey. .1+ from ttn-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 36 mod snow for nnj and nyc light to moderate from phl-ttn. .25+ for the city and nnj so far..still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM says Port Jervis - Binghamton stretch is the bullseye, but we all do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 39 still snowing from phl-se ny......nnj-nyc-se ny getting a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Weenie Storm Watch If the media keeps throwing out those 3-6 inch totals and we get just an inch or 2 it could get ugly on here on Friday. Yeah a little damage control should have been attached to a lot of those forecasts. I heard a lot of radio broadcasts just saying 3-6" with no mention of the ridiculous bust potential/possible shifts. When I wrote my articles I made it well known how near impossible it would be to nail this forecast down, and to be very skeptical of any accumulation forecasts you here that are more than 1-3/2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM still paints a treacherous picture for the NW Philly suburbs during the morning rush. Same goes for NYC/Long Island during the evening rush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Long Island still in the .5+ range?? Lastnight - Northern Queens, and points north and east were in the 1.00+ range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM says Port Jervis - Binghamton stretch is the bullseye, but we all do good. The big question is, the QPF totals compared to the last couple of NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well NYC is on the .25 boarder by 36 hrs. You guys made the 12z nam sound a wee bit better than it really is through 36, but that's ok. 1-3" looks like the game here NYC southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still think the NAM needs to adjust the heaviest snow band 50-75 miles NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Some pretty impressive out puts on the latest SREF's individual panels. 12z NAM seems to be holding its ground with regard to the 6z run. 2-4 maybe 5" NNJ north of I80 1-3" south of there and the Catskill Bullseye 8-12" thru 42 hours. All assuming normal ratios. Now whether those figures would accumulate in more urban areas I did not look at soundings. I still think the Catskills get a solid 12" with a few reports of well over a foot in favored higher terrian. elsewhere probably a 6-8" with a few 10" reports in the banding in SE NY with generally 2-5" elsewhere for NNJ north of I78 thru the NYC metro area. Parts of LI may be interesting with accumulating issues perhaps with BL temps vs possibly being in good band for a while. May be a wash and 2-5" there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still think the NAM needs to adjust the heaviest snow band 50-75 miles NE Why? SREFS, which have the highest verification scores of any model, inside of 36 hours, have the entire .25"-.50" line spread out more SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't get it and I can only attribute it to the fact that the blizzard is fresh in everyone's mind and they dont want people to be unprepared. I just don't get the WSW though. I do appreciate that they are taking the impact into consideration so if thats the reason and since its only a Watch that can easily be downgraded to an advisory then I guess it makes sense. Still to me it looks like a widespread 1 to 4" and possibly much more in those bands. I just don't see areawide 4"+ snowfall amounts verifying. Yeah a little damage control should have been attached to a lot of those forecasts. I heard a lot of radio broadcasts just saying 3-6" with no mention of the ridiculous bust potential/possible shifts. When I wrote my articles I made it well known how near impossible it would be to nail this forecast down, and to be very skeptical of any accumulation forecasts you here that are more than 1-3/2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why? SREFS, which have the highest verification scores of any model, inside of 36 hours, have the entire .25"-.50" line spread out more SW. I think the PV is digging too far south on the NAM. I also dont see the band slowing down or staling until north of the area. This looks like a 6hr period of snow for NYC in my opinion leaving 1-3 inches, with slightly more NE of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think the PV is digging too far south on the NAM. I also dont see the band slowing down or staling until north of the area. This looks like a 6hr period of snow for NYC in my opinion leaving 1-3 inches, with slightly more NE of the metro area. So basically no one does really well with this trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So basically no one does really well with this trough. NW NJ to the Catskills and SE Dacks would be my good snow zone. Those areas that do good on SE upslope snow should see the most out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NW NJ to the Catskills and SE Dacks would be my good snow zone. Those areas that do good on SE upslope snow should see the most out of this setup. Yea, that was being shown on the modeling as getting up to a foot or snow-- at least part of ski country will do well. Right in time for the weekend, too. Do you have a take on next week's system? Some potential there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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