simpsonsbuff Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Will, I wonder how much of a role timing and politics played in this; OKX is usually conversative. ur not the only one wondering this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Will, I wonder how much of a role timing and politics played in this; OKX is usually conversative. I'm not familiar with the politics of that area so I can't comment on that. I just gave my opinion on the probability of warning criteria snows which I thought was pretty low and certainly not worthy of a watch. But again, I give the caveat that I could be totally off my rocker and they know a lot more than I do. I was just giving an opinion based on my experience with inverted/norlun troughs which is something we have to deal with usually at least once per winter up here and I know its much less common down in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't think the probability of a warning event is high enough to issue a watch IMHO....though I could be totally wrong. There's pretty much only one model that shows it, and that was the 00z NAM. The 06z run trended away from it...and most other guidance wants to shift the inverted trough northeast into CT pretty quickly. I think they get accumulating snow, but not warning snows...advisory maybe, but its not time to issue an advisory yet. Again, I could be off my rocker here...and I will be the first to admit a bust as I have had my share...but my experience with inverted troughs and norlun type events (I usually deal with at least 1 per winter) is to always hedge low and northeast for amounts. Yeah I see your point regarding the warning. Even a 2-4" in a 2-3 hour period around rush hour would warrant an advisory I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here comes a completely unsubstantiated fact: Most people in the general public do not understand, or care to understand, the difference between advisory, watch, or warning. I will be greeting this morning, when I head to the office in White Plains, with at least two dozen exclamations of "ooh, we have a winter storm warning for at least 7 inches of snow!" I'm not familiar with the politics of that area so I can't comment on that. I just gave my opinion on the probability of warning criteria snows which I thought was pretty low and certainly not worthy of a watch. But again, I give the caveat that I could be totally off my rocker and they know a lot more than I do. I was just giving an opinion based on my experience with inverted/norlun troughs which is something we have to deal with usually at least once per winter up here and I know its much less common down in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I will say that its very possible someone could get 6"+ easily....and possibly much more...if it works out right. Going back to my experience with norluns and inverted troughs, you can get some huge totals. So if it actually stalls, then someone will get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm not familiar with the politics of that area so I can't comment on that. I just gave my opinion on the probability of warning criteria snows which I thought was pretty low and certainly not worthy of a watch. But again, I give the caveat that I could be totally off my rocker and they know a lot more than I do. I was just giving an opinion based on my experience with inverted/norlun troughs which is something we have to deal with usually at least once per winter up here and I know its much less common down in NYC. Yeah, I dont think they happen much down here either-- maybe aside from Suffolk County. I remember SG said they were much more likely both to the north of here and to the south of here because of the way the coast is oriented or some such. Maybe it would have been good just to have a watch out for Suffolk County and the Hudson Valley only? Based on meteorology, a watch was probably a bad idea-- however, it seems like other factors might have been included. Usually Upton is pretty conservative and a general rule with the NAM is that it usually overdoes precip amounts by half or even two thirds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here comes a completely unsubstantiated fact: Most people in the general public do not understand, or care to understand, the difference between advisory, watch, or warning. I will be greeting this morning, when I head to the office in White Plains, with at least two dozen exclamations of "ooh, we have a winter storm warning for at least 7 inches of snow!" lol I hope you set them straight, and tell them it really isnt a snowstorm, but a norlun trough with a very heavy area of snow in an extremely narrow band that they might not even see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I will say that its very possible someone could get 6"+ easily....and possibly much more...if it works out right. Going back to my experience with norluns and inverted troughs, you can get some huge totals. So if it actually stalls, then someone will get hammered. 06Z UKMET looks good for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah, I dont think they happen much down here either-- maybe aside from Suffolk County. I remember SG said they were much more likely both to the north of here and to the south of here because of the way the coast is oriented or some such. Maybe it would have been good just to have a watch out for Suffolk County and the Hudson Valley only? Based on meteorology, a watch was probably a bad idea-- however, it seems like other factors might have been included. Usually Upton is pretty conservative and a general rule with the NAM is that it usually overdoes precip amounts by half or even two thirds. Well I'm sure they have their reasons. I did give the caveat that I could be totally off my rocker. I've had my share of awful busts, and if NYC gets 8" of snow, it wouldn't be the first or last time I criticized a forecast that ended up being good. I'm just another observer in this cruel game...but I try my best. Anyone who thinks they have it figured out is just fooling themselves and will pay for it down the line...I learned that lesson a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ha.... you know as well as I do... as soon as I get to "norlun" they tune me out as "that weather nerd." On anther note though.. I am surprised at the consistency of the NAM....perhaps not IMBY, but witht he trough in general. lol I hope you set them straight, and tell them it really isnt a snowstorm, but a norlun trough with a very heavy area of snow in an extremely narrow band that they might not even see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well I'm sure they have their reasons. I did give the caveat that I could be totally off my rocker. I've had my share of awful busts, and if NYC gets 8" of snow, it wouldn't be the first or last time I criticized a forecast that ended up being good. I'm just another observer in this cruel game...but I try my best. Anyone who thinks they have it figured out is just fooling themselves and will pay for it down the line...I learned that lesson a few years ago. This is very true-- all we can do is use experience and knowledge and use probability, which all agrees with your line of thinking. Everyone is wrong at some point, the difference lies in who learns from their mistakes. I've been burnt too many times by these kind of storms to expect more than 3 inches..... but there is high bust potential in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WRF-NMM Clown Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WRF-ARW Clown Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 6z NAM Clown Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks for the map! Which is the most accurate model within 24 hours before the onset of an event and right at the onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the coast, including NYC Metro, has BL issues with the onshore flow in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks for the map! Which is the most accurate model within 24 hours before the onset of an event and right at the onset? I'm not a mesoscale guy, so my personal opinion doesn't carry much weight, but the modelers I know like the WRF-ARW as a model the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the coast, including NYC Metro, has BL issues with the onshore flow in the models. Would it be a case of wet snow not sticking to anything but grass and car tops, or more a case of mixing? BTW thanks for the mesoscale info-- all the models above seem to be pointing at a 2 and under event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks just like WAA off the water to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is DT's call FWIW He's got 12"-16" across SE NY down to western Ct and 8"-12" for LI, southern CT to the Cape. DT is an awesome met, but a bit too bullish on this IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interestingly, when you go look at the individual modeled soundings, they're not that warm. Not sure what to make of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I still like 1-3 for NYC as I did the past couple of days, very hard to get more than that in this setup. I like the Catskills to the SE Dacks for the best snows with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From WTNH in New Haven: "*QUIET TODAY-SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING** Other than increasing clouds today, the weather will feature quiet conditions through this evening. Some "dusty" snow flurries or snow showers could be around tomorrow morning with main area of accumulating snow setting up during the midafternoon-evening. We are still expecting a very unique scenario developing for Friday-Friday Night through midday Saturday called a NORLUN trough. A bit technical this morning however, these weather features can cause a localized snowstorm within an area only 50 to 100 miles wide! Some areas may see heavy snow here in CT from this feature. Clearing is expected with windy conditions later Saturday and Sunday. Accumulations are difficult to pin down, but they could be large for parts of CT. Other areas may only get an inch or two as some places get 10"+. Stay tuned! Have a great day! -Gil My email: [email protected] Please follow me on www.twitter.com/gilsimmons" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interestingly, when you go look at the individual modeled soundings, they're not that warm. Not sure what to make of that. It's plenty cold enough for all snow to the coast...850s are like -8C and surface temps are 33/34 on the immediate coast. Certainly plenty of room to wetbulb into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I still like 1-3 for NYC as I did the past couple of days, very hard to get more than that in this setup. I like the Catskills to the SE Dacks for the best snows with this storm. The best PVA at 500mb does seems to be going in that direction. Could see plenty 6"+ up there. Right now I think 2"-4" in NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How do you guys feel about pavement temps and forcast highs tomorrow? You feel main rds wet? parkinglots and side streets slushy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How do you guys feel about pavement temps and forcast highs tomorrow? You feel main rds wet? parkinglots and side streets slushy? I feel they will be completely snow covered for whoever gets under decent banding. High should be around 32F here, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 All depends how those bands set up tomorrow into tomorrow night, If the blizzard was a good lesson on that. My call 1 to 3 inches widespread in northern nj the sweet spots 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts possible especially just north and east of Newark Metro. Have a good weekend will try to post a few obs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I feel they will be completely snow covered for whoever gets under decent banding. High should be around 32F here, I think. Thanks for ur thoughts Nate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks just like WAA off the water to me. I'll take my chances with 33 degrees, moderate precipitation, and the sun almost at sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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