jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 In a freaky way the MM5 kinda looks like the outcome from the last storm with the QPF maxes near metro NYC and Boston, with everyone in between hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 gfs ensembles mean has .25+ for cnj to nyc......should be intresting to see indv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The biggest problem for me personally is the SREF not agreeing with the NAM...they are mesoscale models too. As I replied to Yehuda, I do not envy the forecast there...it seems like there is high bust potential. Its actually not an easy forecast up here either, but I think the lower Hudson Valley forecast is harder in this setup. There is almost certainly going to be an inverted trough initially there, but the question is how quickly it shifts to the northeast. There is definitely a lot of uncertainty. I'm pretty sure that will be a lot less in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wonder if we get two areas of max qpf one right on or just north of nyc and one over bos.....mm5 was showing this...but thats out 48 hrs.....i would def say the ride home friday night could be slick for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 30 has some lgt precip coming across pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 36 has lgt precip for all of pa, northern md, and nw jerz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Seems pretty weak with the norlun through 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 42 has lgt precip over epa,sepa,nj...lgt to mod precip ne pa to oswego ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 weenies should love this He is definitely ballsy, especially with the 16" mention. Perhaps in the Tug Hill region with lake effect on the back end, otherwise that is a huge 12-16" blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 48 lgt to mod precip hudson val to central and eastern li..lgt precip ne pa and central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 48 .1+ for cnj to north jersey....nyc close to .25.....norlun from se ny to li... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 .10 - .20 for everybody pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 54 inverted trof pushes out everyone south of i78 .01-.1 north of i78 .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballsdeep Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He is definitely ballsy, especially with the 16" mention. Perhaps in the Tug Hill region with lake effect on the back end, otherwise that is a huge 12-16" blob. ballsy is good, hint hint, but yea, its got NAM writen all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ballsy is good, hint hint, but yea, its got NAM writen all over it. placement wise for dts map its close to the euros max qpf....just the euro does not meet those numbers...boston and orh get a rotten snow band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Unless, there is a coup by the NAM, its hard to go with a forecast other than 1" - 3" or 2" - 4" for the NYC area and its environs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Unless, there is a coup by the NAM, its hard to go with a forecast other than 1" - 3" or 2" - 4" for the NYC area and its environs. Some people actually use more than just models to make a forecast, such as past experience and tendencies with these events. Just saying... These events have in the past and will most likely Friday give someone a warning criteria snow, just a matter of where the narrow band establishes itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Some people actually use more than just models to make a forecast, such as past experience and tendencies with these events. Just saying... These events have in the past and will most likely Friday give someone a warning criteria snow, just a matter of where the narrow band establishes itself. Well lets look at that. At best for the immediate area this is a ten hour snowfall. Ratios will be at 10-to-1. There has to be a period of one to one and a half inches of snowfall per hour. The lower atmosphere better be unstable for that to allow for a convective period of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the NMM sets up the Norlun right over NYC.....ARW looks like it is out towards central LI. NMM sim radar @ 48 ARW Sim Radar @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Latest snow map from OKX: http://www.erh.noaa....talSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NMM QPF thru 48 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lol, SREF's are wetter again at 03z with the inverted trough feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lol, SREF's are wetter again at 03z with the inverted trough feature. While the NAM backs off at 6z, after it's very wet 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep - NAM not nearly as good. If I had to guess I would go with DT's axis right now where the heaviest precip will be though I don't think 12" plus amounts will be very widespread at all. I think the models and climo support this solution (maybe a smidge further north). This is gonna be a fun event and I dont think anybody can get mad if they are not in the 30-60 mile swath of heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks to me like the NAM and SREFs are coming into better agreement. Sure the 6z NAM is drier by almost half but placement of the heaviest axis is about the same and agrees with the SREFs from 3z very well. I beleive the 0z RGEM also agreed in general with this location and general qpf ideas. I also believe the ARW and NMM along with SUNY MM5 also are in the same general boat with just minor placement differences. Globals on the other hand are a bit more NE with the feature. ATT I would favor the higher res regional models to global. So it seems far NNJ (NE & NW) into extreme NE PA and much of SE NY into SW CT and LI (including NYC area) may very well be in this band or near it. I like the idea of 2-5" area wide with those areas that end up within the ~40 mile wide trough axis seeing 6"+ with local 12" (or perhaps more) in favored higher terrian in SE NY especially the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks to me like the NAM and SREFs are coming into better agreement. Sure the 6z NAM is drier by almost half but placement of the heaviest axis is about the same and agrees with the SREFs from 3z very well. I beleive the 0z RGEM also agreed in general with this location and general qpf ideas. I also believe the ARW and NMM along with SUNY MM5 also are in the same general boat with just minor placement differences. Globals on the other hand are a bit more NE with the feature. ATT I would favor the higher res regional models to global. So it seems far NNJ (NE & NW) into extreme NE PA and much of SE NY into SW CT and LI (including NYC area) may very well be in this band or near it. I like the idea of 2-5" area wide with those areas that end up within the ~40 mile wide trough axis seeing 6"+ with local 12" (or perhaps more) in favored higher terrian in SE NY especially the Catskills. Yeah - it looks like someone in the Catskills is going to be the big winner here.....I'm going to go with New Paltz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah - it looks like someone in the Catskills is going to be the big winner here.....I'm going to go with New Paltz. New Paltz is outside the mountains, though, at a much lower elevation. I'd think areas like Minnewaska State Park would get a lot from this, however, with the 'Gunks getting up to like 2000' ASL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah - it looks like someone in the Catskills is going to be the big winner here.....I'm going to go with New Paltz. To be honest this has the look to it where most areas (outside the best band) get 2-5", 6-8" inside the band, and the jackpot amounts it the favored Catskill areas get 15"+. I really would not be suprised come Saturday morning if a few reports of 15-20" came out of the Catskills region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 New Paltz is outside the mountains, though, at a much lower elevation. I'd think areas like Minnewaska State Park would get a lot from this, however, with the 'Gunks getting up to like 2000' ASL. Shawangunk Ridge will probably jackpot from this storm especially around Cragsmoor/Ellenville area where elevations jolt up to 2200'.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Shawangunk Ridge will probably jackpot from this storm especially around Cragsmoor/Ellenville area where elevations jolt up to 2200'.. Strongly agree...there's a steep snowfall gradient between the Wallkill Valley and the Shawangunk Ridge. I remember driving up there numerous times in 07-08 and being amazed at the snowpack despite the meager amounts falling in the Hudson Valley that year, especially down towards my house. I think Ellenville and into the Gunks could see up to 12" in this set-up although I wouldn't count on any widespread amounts over 8". The possibly long duration of the event should allow for upslope to be a factor if we get many hours of lighter precipitation from the arctic front on either side of the more intense Norlun banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.