SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 verbatim looks like 0.1" to 0.2" on the RGEM for Philly, and 0.2" to 0.5" for NYC still good to see the norlun down this way and not up in SNE, that's what we need to take away from tonight's model runs rather than just the QPF rgem is only through 48, so there would be more after especialy nyc and points north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NAM is probably too wet if you ask me..I would take it's positioning (generally) and a blend between the SREF and NAM QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 rgem is only through 48, so there would be more after especialy nyc and points north and east. If you look at the 48 hour RGEM snapshot map, the snow near NYC has pretty much tapered off by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS looks nothing like the NAM through 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NAM is probably too wet if you ask me..I would take it's positioning (generally) and a blend between the SREF and NAM QPF. Agree, seems overdone, but I think it has a better handle than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 im not sure how its going to play out, but the gfs is a heck of a lot stronger with the pv over the northeast compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's DT's 1st guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS looks nothing like the NAM through 48 hrs Very true...I'd go with a compromise, like you said, of the SREF and NAM QPF, with NAM trough placement. If you look closely at 500mb between the 12z and 00z runs of the GFS, you'll see that the PV is actually digging more on the 00z. The improvements aloft are not very well depicted at the surface, but they are there albeit not too significant. Ok, the GFS is wacky with this Norlun trough. It takes it from NJ to Boston? Is that even possible for a Norlun trough to do? I thought most of the time, Norluns stay put in one area with little or no shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 00Z RGEM says cut 00Z NAM totals in half. lol great news .. half of 0 is 0 still lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's DT's 1st guess Looks to be realistic--- of course the snow hole lives on with this map and that is why it appears to be realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here's DT's 1st guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Np offense to DT but that map is absolutely ridiculous, and I don't need to be a meteorologist to realize that. Not one model besides the NAM is outputting numbers that even remotely support this 1st guess forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very true...I'd go with a compromise, like you said, of the SREF and NAM QPF, with NAM trough placement. If you look closely at 500mb between the 12z and 00z runs of the GFS, you'll see that the PV is actually digging more on the 00z. The improvements aloft are not very well depicted at the surface, but they are there albeit not too significant. Ok, the GFS is wacky with this Norlun trough. It takes it from NJ to Boston? Is that even possible for a Norlun trough to do? I thought most of the time, Norluns stay put in one area with little or no shift. I don't think it has the Norlun... it basically has a progressive spoke of vorticity rotating through the NYC-BOS corridor... there is no interaction with the Low offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0z GFS drops .1-.25 for the city. Looks like the 12z Euro, such a tricky set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks to be realistic--- of course the snow hole lives on with this map and that is why it appears to be realistic Okay I mostly troll and try to learn from this board, but I have to ask if the qpf output is maybe .5 or so for NYC and north and west how does it make sense for calls for a foot or more of snow with 10:1 ratio? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 IMHO: if you split GFS/NAM/RGEM qpf, you get about .50 for nyc at this point. Anyone agree/disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Np offense to DT but that map is absolutely ridiculous, and I don't need to be a meteorologist to realize that. Not one model besides the NAM is outputting numbers that even remotely support this 1st guess forecast. If someone had posted his written thoughts to go along with that, he said that 1.) It's his 1st GUESS. 2.) the models always underforecast norlun setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hurricane said 1-3" for Philly, 2-4" for Bucks and Trenton on N&E. NYC is included in 2-4" but remember he's just a Philly forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lee Goldburg is leaning towards 6+ for nyc/LI/ Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lee Goldburg is leaning towards 6+ for nyc/LI/ Hudson Valley Really? 6+ for NYC too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 he shifted his band which was previously over Central LI back towards the west to include the NYC metro/Hudson Valley, Nassau and Western Suffolk. I think his original idea was for the heaviest band to be across Central LI and stretch into the hudson Valley, but leaving out NYC and Western LI (similar to the map Gregory posted at 1000pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lee Goldburg is leaning towards 6+ for nyc/LI/ Hudson Valley i thought he had the 6"+ line north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 These big totals sound overdone to me; NAM always likes to exaggerate QPF in dynamic situations. I'm not saying someone won't see 6-10" but I think over a foot is going to be almost impossible to achieve with a Norlun. That being said, NYC has been lucky the past few winters, so how can we possibly know? Probably not a Norlun exactly, but an inverted trough extending NW from a coastal low was the culprit that concentrated the bulk of the snow in the NYC area on 12/26/1947. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i thought he had the 6"+ line north of the city. he did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Really? 6+ for NYC too? I definitely don't envy the forecast down there. What a discrepancy between the NAM and some other guidance. I usually have to forecast 1 or 2 norlun type events per season up here and they are terrible from a forecasting perspective. Very difficult to handle...even 24h out, never mind 36-48h out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 he has an arching band from northwest to southeast, which now encompasses the city on north, but includes LI out to Western Suffolk...the previous band he had was "shifted" to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks to be realistic--- of course the snow hole lives on with this map and that is why it appears to be realistic The Central PA Middle Finger is alive and well!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 weenies should love this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hurricane said 1-3" for Philly, 2-4" for Bucks and Trenton on N&E. NYC is included in 2-4" but remember he's just a Philly forecaster. He definitely nailed the big max up around the NYC area on the 12/26 storm. We all thought then that 20"+ was ludicrous, and that's exactly what many of us had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i knew i wasnt hallucinating... http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=weather/forecast&id=6563415 lee goldberg does not say 6"+ in nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.