CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nothing big on the euro..Maybe about 1-2" area wide, nothing like the gfs which gives nyc 6" now we wait for storm #2 which is trying to close off over TX, but the PV is sitting on the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liamdaly Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 what is the total precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clindner00 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yep did the main cyclone come in farther west from previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NYC gets close to .5" liquid this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 did the main cyclone come in farther west from previous runs? Cyclone? lol and no, the inverted trof is very weak, maybe about 1-3" area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 qpf mmu .35-.4 nyc .5 phl .25 ttn .3-.35 smq .35-.4 abe .35-.4 rdg .25-.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually it looks like exactly .5" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nothing big on the euro..Maybe about 1-2" area wide, nothing like the gfs which gives nyc 6" NYC gets close to .5" liquid this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nothing big on the euro..Maybe about 1-2" area wide, nothing like the gfs which gives nyc 6" now we wait for storm #2 which is trying to close off over TX, but the PV is sitting on the northeast Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 NYC gets close to .5" liquid this run wow-- finally the euro and gfs coming into better agreement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nothing big on the euro..Maybe about 1-2" area wide, nothing like the gfs which gives nyc 6" now we wait for storm #2 which is trying to close off over TX, but the PV is sitting on the northeast sounds like a bit more than 1-2 area wide. I think from NYC north this could be a nice 3-6 type storm with someone getting 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Cyclone? lol and no, the inverted trof is very weak, maybe about 1-3" area wide .50 is a little more then 1-3 for your area, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 tombo, what are the numbers for Hazleton/WB/AVP area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is this all from the inverted trough? It seemingly is but my feeling is some of this is being generated due to strong PVA from the 500 low, especially the snow further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 storm number 2 forming over houston...block looking good at hr 108 nice 50/50 low over new foundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually it looks like exactly .5" liquid Although these setups are very vulnerable to minor shifts, all of the guidance appears to give NYC around 4"+ of snow. While I don't think it would be wise to go for more than an inch at this point, the potential for a moderate to significant event for NYC is increasing. Unfortunately I'll be in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 qpf mmu .35-.4 nyc .5 phl .25 ttn .3-.35 smq .35-.4 abe .35-.4 rdg .25-.3 Is Baltimore still getting the same .1?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wrong. No, right...NYC on east gets the most, all of eastern PA and NJ gets 1-3" i was talking in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It seemingly is but my feeling is some of this is being generated due to strong PVA from the 500 low, especially the snow further inland. Definitely agreed there. The GFS and NAM both showed strong PVA. I think this is why the precip field is more broad and not as narrow as inverted troughs usually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 tombo, what are the numbers for Hazleton/WB/AVP area? sprry forgot you, your about .3-.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 120 sub 1008 low in northern gom, very moisture loaded with another area in plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Definitely agreed there. The GFS and NAM both showed strong PVA. I think this is why the precip field is more broad and not as narrow as inverted troughs usually are. An inverted trough may form somewhere and where it does someone will get hit harder but I'm liking my forecast from 2 days ago that the upper low was going to drop snow over portions of the area on its own, maybe as much as 4 inches or so in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 120, has a snowstorm for central miss,ala,ga north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No, right...NYC on east gets the most, all of eastern PA and NJ gets 1-3" i was talking in general Wrong again. 0.30-0.50 QPF would be about 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 No, right...NYC on east gets the most, all of eastern PA and NJ gets 1-3" i was talking in general It's definitely not a big event, but .5" liquid is not a 1-2" snowstorm...it's probably more like a 2-5" storm verbatim. I Away from the tropical subclimate that is EWR, LGA, and NYC official reporting stations, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 1-3" for NYC seems to be a go right now, but inverted troughs are tricky, so 3-6" definite call would have to wait until we close in on the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't really understand the argument over snow amounts, it's really just light snow from an inverted trough and some upper level dynamics. I will be stoked with whatever I get out of this setup, we have no business getting snow with the surface low that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 126 has a sub 1012 low south of fl panhandle...snow in the deep south...h5 setup prob will surpress this south...other area in plains gaining strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Nothing big on the euro..Maybe about 1-2" area wide, nothing like the gfs which gives nyc 6" now we wait for storm #2 which is trying to close off over TX, but the PV is sitting on the northeast check again, .50 Liquid is 6 inches from Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well I think somebody could pick up over 8" with this. It will be very localized but like others have said, think of the Norlun as a lake effect snow band. Where the heaviest stuff sets up is completely up in the air and we won't know until the event is imminent (12-24 hours). As of right now I'm going to go with 2-4" for central nj, around 4-5 for NNJ, around 3-4 for NYC. I think it sounds reasonable, but there are things like ratios to consider. A .5" of liquid may not sound much but if you get 15:1 ratios, that's an easy 7-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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