tcutter Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0z nam qpf totals for pa abe .33 ptw .25 ukt .29 rdg .25 phl .21 pne .22 dyl .26 lom .24 nxx .24 mpo .47 lns .19 do you know what the ratio would be?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1.18 at KSWF http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 These are beautiful charts of NA if you like storminess. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_084l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_300_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 do you know what the ratio would be?? always go with 10-1 unless your dealing with a true arctic airmass, that would be the best advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 EWR : 0.64 NYC : 0.89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1.18 at KSWF http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt Hey where is the overall site for all those soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 always go with 10-1 unless your dealing with a true arctic airmass, that would be the best advice. Yea rarely do we really deviate much from the standard 10:1 ratio. I know we always ask with every storm and almost every storm winds up verifying something close to 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 EWR : 0.58 NYC : 0.81 KJFK: .91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Heres the nam 40km qpf, a more mesoscale and precise sounding of the nam for pa abe .31 ptw .27 ukt .32 rdg .18 phl .24 pne .29 dyl . 39 lom .32 nxx .35 mpo .45 lns .17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yea rarely do we really deviate much from the standard 10:1 ratio. I know we always ask with every storm and almost every storm winds up verifying something close to 10:1. And always will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yea rarely do we really deviate much from the standard 10:1 ratio. I know we always ask with every storm and almost every storm winds up verifying something close to 10:1. The ratios under the Norlun's most intense band would be a bit higher since we're talking about high-quality dendrites with omega through the roof and -10C 850s with the surface below 0C. We also don't have high winds to break apart the dendritic formation as we did for the last storm. In areas not under the heaviest banding, I'd expect 10:1 since there will be poorer quality snow growth with forcing limited to instability from the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1.18 at KSWF http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kswf.txt 1.22" @ MGJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Heres the nam 40km qpf, a more mesoscale and precise sounding of the nam for pa abe .31 ptw .27 ukt .32 rdg .18 phl .24 pne .29 dyl . 39 lom .32 nxx .35 mpo .45 lns .17 Tombo, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1.22" @ MGJ These big totals sound overdone to me; NAM always likes to exaggerate QPF in dynamic situations. I'm not saying someone won't see 6-10" but I think over a foot is going to be almost impossible to achieve with a Norlun. That being said, NYC has been lucky the past few winters, so how can we possibly know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Entire period, most falls throuh 60, not much after but its included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Tombo, lol yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By the way, Nick Gregory going with 3" - 5" for NYC. And 5" - 8" for areas north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Heres the nam 40km qpf, a more mesoscale and precise sounding of the nam for pa abe .31 ptw .27 ukt .32 rdg .18 phl .24 pne .29 dyl . 39 lom .32 nxx .35 mpo .45 lns .17 TOMBO, CAN YOU DO THAT FOR BLM. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 These big totals sound overdone to me; NAM always likes to exaggerate QPF in dynamic situations. I'm not saying someone won't see 6-10" but I think over a foot is going to be almost impossible to achieve with a Norlun. That being said, NYC has been lucky the past few winters, so how can we possibly know? Orogrpahic lift FTW.. You can see on the 0z NAM that the precip max is located on the Orange/Ulster border right around the shawangunk ridge. Not saying these precip totals are correct but 10" in favored areas are a very good possibility.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 00Z RGEM says cut 00Z NAM totals in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 TOMBO, CAN YOU DO THAT FOR BLM. Thanks 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By the way, Nick Gregory going with 3" - 5" for NYC. And 5" - 8" for areas north and east. craig allen just posted this on his facebook page............... "Snow is a certainty to close the week. Light snow could break out bfr the Fri am commute. Snow during mid-aftn Fri may not accum much due to light intensity, temp aoa 32° and daylight. Colder w/ hvier snow psbl by late Fri/Fri ngt/ early Sat. First look at updated data confirms a region wide 2" to 6", lowest amounts in central and s'ern NJ. Local 4-8" amounts possible, especially parts of the HV, CT and LI." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RGEM looks nice for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By the way, Nick Gregory going with 3" - 5" for NYC. And 5" - 8" for areas north and east. FYI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RGEM looks nice for the area Looks to have the heavier qpf a bit south into eastern-CNJ as well. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How does the RGEM compare to the NAM for PA? im waiting for the color maps to come out, that will tell you better. The b/w maps are to broad with there qpf amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 here is the rgem color maps...looks pretty close to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah, I'm picturing Rt 422 and Rt 76 in my head right now around 8am. Not nice. I would assume the bulk of the snow falls between 9z-15z in our neck of the woods based on the NAM and GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 verbatim looks like 0.1" to 0.2" on the RGEM for Philly, and 0.2" to 0.5" for NYC still good to see the norlun down this way and not up in SNE, that's what we need to take away from tonight's model runs rather than just the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 hr 30-33, precip into pa and tri state area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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