ag3 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Srefs completely take away inverted trough. Barely .10" in our area. SNE is the only area that sees .25"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 since this is such a delicate forecast situation, what sort of trends are we looking for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Upton snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Light snow falling over much of the area at 36 on the NAM, except for a dryslot into Philly and extreme SE PA. I-78 north/west in PA has .1"+ while the rest of the region has .01-.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 since this is such a delicate forecast situation, what sort of trends are we looking for tonight? Since it is quite here I will chime in. Not so sure we are looking for trends so much as 1: for the norlun trough to continue to show up as it has been quite consistently and 2: where does it show up on this run compared to previous runs. Last few 12 and 18z seemed to hedge its bets a little bit further north but as many have said this type of situation is very touchy and very difficult for models to see let alone place accurately more the 24hrs out. If I was a betting man I would suspect in the end it will target from extreme NNJ up into the Hudson Valley and western CT. With a bullseye over the SE Catskills. But then again I am not a betting man so who knows for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Upton snow map: image Nice looking map from Upton...hopefully those totals won't change too much with tonight's model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Light snow falling over much of the area at 36 on the NAM, except for a dryslot into Philly and extreme SE PA. I-78 north/west in PA has .1"+ while the rest of the region has .01-.1". better trend on the nam is that its digging the pv lobe vorticity further south compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM still has the feature at 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 through hr 42 phl is over .15 qpf, with more to come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Actually a really nice hit for NYC and NE NJ as well as LI at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Has an area of favorable UVV's at that hour directly over NE NJ..NYC..LI..and SE NY as well as portions of SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Since it is quite here I will chime in. Not so sure we are looking for trends so much as 1: for the norlun trough to continue to show up as it has been quite consistently and 2: where does it show up on this run compared to previous runs. Last few 12 and 18z seemed to hedge its bets a little bit further north but as many have said this type of situation is very touchy and very difficult for models to see let alone place accurately more the 24hrs out. If I was a betting man I would suspect in the end it will target from extreme NNJ up into the Hudson Valley and western CT. With a bullseye over the SE Catskills. But then again I am not a betting man so who knows for sure. very good take...we'll be watching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 better trend on the nam is that its digging the pv lobe vorticity further south compared to 18z. Did I say 2-4" last night is a win? I meant 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 .5+ for most of the NYC area at 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Did I say 2-4" last night is a win? I meant 1-2. nam drops about .2 on the airport, up towards northern delco into montco and bucks is .25 line, ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still going through 57 hrs... .75 on LI just northeast of NYC into SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 nam drops about .2 on the airport, up towards northern delco into montco and bucks is .25 line, ill take it. Tom, smq? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is very impressive SIM radar shows an intense band through W Nassau, Queens/Bklyn/SWCT/NYC/NENJ High dbz values as well Interesting how some models back away from the solution, as the NAM becomes more intense with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhj Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still going through 57 hrs... .75 on LI just northeast of NYC into SE NY ct shore up to se ct ????????????how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still going through 57 hrs... .75 on LI just northeast of NYC into SE NY that's a 5-8" event for LI then... The good 'ol days!!!! That was considered an awesome storm back when I started to like weather, in the mid 80's... Friday afternoon into night... Perfect Friday night.. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The hr48 chart on the NAM is very impressive. I don't have to look at QPF to know that would yield a narrow strip of heavy snow right across the tri-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Tom, smq? thanks about .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what's the QPF on the NAM for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The hr48 chart on the NAM is very impressive. I don't have to look at QPF to know that would yield a narrow strip of heavy snow right across the tri-state. You would be correct, sir...(at 54 anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 about .25 This is going to be one heck of a 'surprise' large event for some folks. Yes, probably a farily small area, but a highly populated one. I wouls guess at this point from C NJ through S NE a general 1"-3" will fall, but whoever gets lucky and that band stalls over them might be looking at VERY impressive snow rates, and up to 10-12" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Has an area of favorable UVV's at that hour directly over NE NJ..NYC..LI..and SE NY as well as portions of SW CT That is a very impressive looking, the narrow, area that looks to recieve a nice period of heavy snow. The consistancy on the feature and its placement over the past several runs is pretty impressive especially for this type of event. I feel pretty confident this narrow band will target somewhere from about I80 in NNJ northward into SE NY. I84 may very well end up being the main axis. Or better Yet Rt 17 out of Bergen County up into SE NY. But again time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what's the QPF on the NAM for NYC/LI? a lot...haven't seen 60 but my guess would be it adds on an additional .05-.1 for NYC but as of 54 NYC-.5.-7 LI-.75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 about .25 thank you ,,and also, for taking the time, for doing what you do in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 doubt it will occur as modeled by the NAM but I'm literally in the 1.25+ bullseye...if something like this verifies someone in a really small area could pick up 15'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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