jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres the rgem at hr 48 color maps to see it easier If you look at that sharp red line cutting through E PA into Delaware Bay, that's where the convergence sets up and the inverted trough snows develop. We have to hope it stays west of here and doesn't pivot too quickly into New England. The SNE thread is already buzzing about how the Euro and GGEM, and to an extent this last NAM run shifted the Norlun snow band north, and we could very easily all be disappointed if that convergence line trends east. Hopefully we're still good for a couple of inches or so as it develops, but the heavy snow band isn't hitting anyone outside of maybe a 50 mile swath unfortunately, and it's favored climatologically to be NE of here. More than likely, the SNE thread will be happier than our thread on FRI but still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18Z GFS at 51 hours has the band of snow starting to set up in our vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 .. and also at 54... right through northern NJ and NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you look at that sharp red line cutting through E PA into Delaware Bay, that's where the convergence sets up and the inverted trough snows develop. We have to hope it stays west of here and doesn't pivot too quickly into New England. The SNE thread is already buzzing about how the Euro and GGEM, and to an extent this last NAM run shifted the Norlun snow band north, and we could very easily all be disappointed if that convergence line trends east. Hopefully we're still good for a couple of inches or so as it develops, but the heavy snow band isn't hitting anyone outside of maybe a 50 mile swath unfortunately, and it's favored climatologically to be NE of here. More than likely, the SNE thread will be happier than our thread on FRI but still a ways to go. JM are areas just outside of the heaviest swath still good for 3-6 inches? Based on HPC, it seems like the heaviest swath will get the 6-10 amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18Z GFS at 51 hours has the band of snow starting to set up in our vicinity. What is our vicinity? I am about 20 miles east of philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ348 PM EST WED JAN 5 2011NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-061-062-069-062100-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-BUCKS-348 PM EST WED JAN 5 2011THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERNNEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRALPENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.Mt. Holly HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT ANDFRIDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILLBRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 ORMORE INCHES OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE MAINLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOWMAY BECOME ESTABLISHED AS AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND MAY DEVELOP. THEHIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE THE FARTHER NORTH ONESGOES..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Just curious if the 4" accumulation is assumed by the ULL itself? Or is this an assumption that the Norlun will swing, pivit before it settles somewhere in S. New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 looks like a .25-.50 on 18Z GFS for northern NJ and NYC metro and .10 - .25 central and southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What is our vicinity? I am about 20 miles east of philly. between a tenth and quarter of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The track of the mid-level low centers near or over the tri-state as well as some hanging back of the surface isobars suggests the possibility of some light wraparound snows on Sat long after the norlun dynamics have moved northeast or dissipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And then we had the CRAS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If you look at that sharp red line cutting through E PA into Delaware Bay, that's where the convergence sets up and the inverted trough snows develop. We have to hope it stays west of here and doesn't pivot too quickly into New England. The SNE thread is already buzzing about how the Euro and GGEM, and to an extent this last NAM run shifted the Norlun snow band north, and we could very easily all be disappointed if that convergence line trends east. Hopefully we're still good for a couple of inches or so as it develops, but the heavy snow band isn't hitting anyone outside of maybe a 50 mile swath unfortunately, and it's favored climatologically to be NE of here. More than likely, the SNE thread will be happier than our thread on FRI but still a ways to go. Strongly agree that climatology argues for the inverted trough to trend further north and east. Taunton's evening AFD is largely in a wait and see mode on this event, but odds probably favor future changes go to a snowier solution for them, and less so for NY metro. Of course, that's not to say that will happen but you get the feeling this will shift east rather than west or as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And then we had the CRAS... Looks like the NAM of a few runs ago. But the CRAS is on its own again right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Seemed like Mt. Holly was considering watches in the northern 3rd of the forecast area. Maybe I'm reading between the lines. It's likely to be the biggest snowfall of the year for me....hell anything over 2" would be hehe. Let's hope it over performs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 With a snowfall forecast like this one...Hard to understand how they didn't issue a watch for Sussex, Warren and Morris when criteria is 6" over 12 hours. The same hold serve for the Pocono Mt. Holly zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I am more interested in the Friday potential. Could we be looking at an ugly rush hour for the NJ/NY? Someone is going to get a thump likely along the line from Binghamton to Boston as a center line........use 195 in NJ (not I95 ) as the southern edge of maybe 3-5. We know there are duck on the pond through about the 19th/20th........ Norlund's are cool for now casting/obs ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I can't speak for Mount Holly, but Upton changes those snowfall maps every few hours, even more often during events. I've come to largely ignore these forecast maps. This one from Mount Holly is probably based off the 12z suite of model runs as the 18z runs on both the nam and gfs shifted the heaviest band north and east of their forecast zones and cut down on qpf significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I can't speak for Mount Holly, but Upton changes those snowfall maps every few hours, even more often during events. I've come to largely ignore these forecast maps. This one from Mount Holly is probably based off the 12z suite of model runs as the 18z runs on both the nam and gfs shifted the heaviest band north and east of their forecast zones and cut down on qpf significantly. Mt. Holly does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yet another Earthlight/Isotherm jackpot. Where exactly is a jackpot? Seems like a very broad area of equal precip on the graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 With a snowfall forecast like this one...Hard to understand how they didn't issue a watch for Sussex, Warren and Morris when criteria is 6" over 12 hours. The same hold serve for the Pocono Mt. Holly zones. Given that our confidence is not high that warning criteria will be met, no watch was issued with this afternoon's forecast issuance (this is mentioned in the AFD). The amounts shown on that map are our first cut at what we think may occur with this event and are highly subject to change. One must understand that it depends on the band of snow that sets up with the inverted trough/trowel. A simplified version of this was mentioned in the HWO. It was decided to place the snowfall map on our homepage to give customers an idea of what we are thinking. The amounts were based off of HPC internal guidance (also mentioned in the AFD) and looked decent based on the 12z guidance. The enhanced band of QPF is likely going to bounce around with each model run as its placement (inverted trough/trowel) will be determined by the incoming closed low and the surface low forming well off the coast. A tough forecast but we felt it would be helpful to place a storm total snow graphic on our homepage at this time (the media and others were already mentioning accumulations, and we got several calls about snow amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Given that our confidence is not high that warning criteria will be met, no watch was issued with this afternoon's forecast issuance (this is mentioned in the AFD). The amounts shown on that map are our first cut at what we think may occur with this event and are highly subject to change. One must understand that it depends on the band of snow that sets up with the inverted trough/trowel. A simplified version of this was mentioned in the HWO. It was decided to place the snowfall map on our homepage to give customers an idea of what we are thinking. The amounts were based off of HPC internal guidance (also mentioned in the AFD) and looked decent based on the 12z guidance. The enhanced band of QPF is likely going to bounce around with each model run as its placement (inverted trough/trowel) will be determined by the incoming closed low and the surface low forming well off the coast. A tough forecast but we felt it would be helpful to place a storm total snow graphic on our homepage at this time (the media and others were already mentioning accumulations, and we got several calls about snow amounts). I wish you extended your map into Luzerne/Lackawanna counties. I have not even had time to see any forecasts even with our own in-house mets at the tv station. and I am not a fan of NWS binghamton--I love you guys and miss ya'll down at Mt Holly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Given that our confidence is not high that warning criteria will be met, no watch was issued with this afternoon's forecast issuance (this is mentioned in the AFD). The amounts shown on that map are our first cut at what we think may occur with this event and are highly subject to change. One must understand that it depends on the band of snow that sets up with the inverted trough/trowel. A simplified version of this was mentioned in the HWO. It was decided to place the snowfall map on our homepage to give customers an idea of what we are thinking. The amounts were based off of HPC internal guidance (also mentioned in the AFD) and looked decent based on the 12z guidance. The enhanced band of QPF is likely going to bounce around with each model run as its placement (inverted trough/trowel) will be determined by the incoming closed low and the surface low forming well off the coast. A tough forecast but we felt it would be helpful to place a storm total snow graphic on our homepage at this time (the media and others were already mentioning accumulations, and we got several calls about snow amounts). Thanks Mike for the EXTRA effort! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wish you extended your map into Luzerne/Lackawanna counties. I have not even had time to see any forecasts even with our own in-house mets at the tv station. and I am not a fan of NWS binghamton--I love you guys and miss ya'll down at Mt Holly... Tom Clark says light snow tomorrow night into Friday, then a few quick inches may fall during a certain period of time on friday. He also says next week's storm will probably miss us to the south. WNEP mets mostly follow the US models run by run I believe. Tom I think is just getting too old and he usually just goes with "it will probably miss us" until we get within a day or two of the storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wish you extended your map into Luzerne/Lackawanna counties. I have not even had time to see any forecasts even with our own in-house mets at the tv station. and I am not a fan of NWS binghamton--I love you guys and miss ya'll down at Mt Holly... Sorry Jim, if I could I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Tom Clark says light snow tomorrow night into Friday, then a few quick inches may fall during a certain period of time on friday. He also says next week's storm will probably miss us to the south. WNEP mets mostly follow the US models run by run I believe. Tom I think is just getting too old and he usually just goes with "it will probably miss us" until we get within a day or two of the storm. lol I think Tom Clark is better than some people give him credit for. He isn't one to put snow goggles on and hype up a forecast, and for that he gets a bum rap sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can't speak for Mount Holly, but Upton changes those snowfall maps every few hours, even more often during events. I've come to largely ignore these forecast maps. This one from Mount Holly is probably based off the 12z suite of model runs as the 18z runs on both the nam and gfs shifted the heaviest band north and east of their forecast zones and cut down on qpf significantly. I think Upton waffles way too much, there's no need to keep changing every hour or so like with the last storm. Also this event is very difficult to figure out, there is no guarantee where the heaviest will fall, the models will keep shifting the axis of heaviest precip within the next 2 days, we won't know for sure until we're within 24 hours or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wish you extended your map into Luzerne/Lackawanna counties. I have not even had time to see any forecasts even with our own in-house mets at the tv station. and I am not a fan of NWS binghamton--I love you guys and miss ya'll down at Mt Holly... As I am not a fan of NWS State College. I can kind of get a feeling of what's forecast for our area simply by being so close to Carbon County and taking it west a few miles. I tried to find a similar map for CTP, but if they actually do have one, I couldn't locate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Tom Clark says light snow tomorrow night into Friday, then a few quick inches may fall during a certain period of time on friday. He also says next week's storm will probably miss us to the south. WNEP mets mostly follow the US models run by run I believe. Tom I think is just getting too old and he usually just goes with "it will probably miss us" until we get within a day or two of the storm. lol Tom has been spot on for the most part this year and has great insight whenever I talk to him. And Im not just saying that because I work with him His knowledge is decades deep in this area. Same with Joe in the mornings. I always chat with him before I head out for my stories. The entire team we have flat out rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 As I am not a fan of NWS State College. I can kind of get a feeling of what's forecast for our area simply by being so close to Carbon County and taking it west a few miles. I tried to find a similar map for CTP, but if they actually do have one, I couldn't locate it. Your not alone. When you read Mt. Holly's then go to State College, not only is the warm bias painfully evident, they often offer little info and are no better than many tv outlets. Mt. Holly can add LNS to there list any day to me. I'd also add that Mt Holly shows an unbiased passion in there statements while often offerning sound reasons why things may or may not happen. It's like reading a well written book then going to a childrens novel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 As I am not a fan of NWS State College. I can kind of get a feeling of what's forecast for our area simply by being so close to Carbon County and taking it west a few miles. I tried to find a similar map for CTP, but if they actually do have one, I couldn't locate it. I dont know the folks at Bing like I do at Mt Holly, so I am biased!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can any serious consideration be given to the possibility of a 985 low developing off the NJ coast in hrs 54-60 (based on 12z run) as depicted by the MM5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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