dendrite Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro is probably not your go to model in this setup, needs high res short term models. The EC is as high-res as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 where is ILG? http://www.speedygrl.com/airport.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 We'll need to keep an eye on the SREFs and other short term models tomorrow but this is why its foolish 48 hours out for forecasters to be calling for 4"+ in any specific location yet in this type of storm. the Euro is the outlier with storm 1 right now..most other modela spitting out .25-.50 with higher amounts in norlun locations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For my money, I'd take the WRF ARW in any mesoscale situation I remember that Feb 09 Norlan on that day WRF ARW had a 12"+ band cutting across Berks County, Reading getting 15", we ended up with an inch or two. As the action was from Phl southeastward into NJ. A seperate band did develop in east centeral PA a narrow band of 12" snows in Lancaster County. About 40 miles sw of Berks/Reading area. Point being that even though the WRF ARW depicted the event and its effects very well, it can be such a narrow band that the placement can't be predicted well even on the hi res model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The EC is as high-res as the NAM. But it gives us less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the Euro is the outlier with storm 1 right now..most other modela spitting out .25-.50 with higher amounts in norlun locations.. GFS and GGEM both have <0.25 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Doesn't surprise me since Norluns 9.5 times out of 10 are for SNE, and they are almost impossible to predict. Again, I'm not hoping for anything more than enough to rewhiten the ground. Most of everyone's attention should be on the threat after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the Euro is the outlier with storm 1 right now..most other modela spitting out .25-.50 with higher amounts in norlun locations.. not really...the last GFS gave most of NJ only .1-.25 so those two models are showing a sign of aligning with less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anywhere north of Trenton pretty much gets at least .25 up to .4 on the last GFS, quite a bit below the NAM but above the Euro not really...the last GFS gave most of NJ only .1-.25 so those two models are showing a sign of aligning with less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Anywhere north of Trenton pretty much gets at least .25 up to .4 on the last GFS, quite a bit below the NAM but above the Euro not according to this...http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_12z/avneastloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 not according to this...http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVNEAST_12z/avneastloop.html Actually that seems to support his post. You're wrong. Look at the accum precip by hour 78 in the bottom right box. .25+ in northern NJ, nyc, LI, SW CT and southern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually that seems to support his post. You're wrong. Look at the accum precip by hour 78 in the bottom right box. .25+ in northern NJ, nyc, LI, SW CT and southern NY. I was talking about the rest of NJ...from northern NJ south its less than .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Would anyone hazard a guess as to where the trough is most likely to set up, based on the positioning of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Would anyone hazard a guess as to where the trough is most likely to set up, based on the positioning of the low. Pick a spot between PHL & boston. Get a large map out, blindfold yourself and try to pin the norlun on the area! Kinda like pin the tail on the donkey, but with weather and inverted troughs. YAY! But seriously, these things are so tough to pin point, you need to wait to like 12-18 hours to even get a marginal idea of where it could set up. In other words - Nobody really knows, not even the models or baby Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For those that are interested...the upton zone forecasts now include snowfall predictions for friday. The snowfall map has still not been issed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM is making a move towards the Euro/GGEM this run. At 30 hours, the leading shortwave is significantly further north compared to the 12z run. Also, some minor changes with the backend shortwave based on the changing position of the PV. The PV looks more consolidated + further north on the 18z. More of the same at hour 36,,,unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Why is Taunton writing Upton's AFD and forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like the 18z NAM is making a move towards the Euro/GGEM this run. At 30 hours, the leading shortwave is significantly further north compared to the 12z run. Also, some minor changes with the backend shortwave based on the changing position of the PV. The PV looks more consolidated + further north on the 18z. More of the same at hour 36,,,unfortunately. Still shows the norlun feature. Not sure what you are complaining about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jackpot this time moves to the North and east of the city...I wonder if the NAM's higher resolution will help it see this event better than the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Still shows the norlun feature. Not sure what you are complaining about. central and southeast NY, along with northern jersey and long island/nyc are up to about 4-6" and its still snowing at 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 central and southeast NY, along with northern jersey and long island/nyc are up to about 4-6" and its still snowing at 60hr Yep No offense, but I am hoping it shifts back south again and nails SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jackpot this time moves to the North and east of the city...I wonder if the NAM's higher resolution will help it see this event better than the globals It should and I think it is signaling the potential magnitude of the mesoscale features. But in terms of exact placement of the jackpot of this event 60hrs out, it will keepo flipping around, and thats why no one should get excited in my opinion until its snowing outside their window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jackpot this time moves to the North and east of the city...I wonder if the NAM's higher resolution will help it see this event better than the globals I'm diggin it, it just needs to stop trending east now. Looks like the 18z nam would give good snowfalls to people between NYC and HVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Jackpot this time moves to the North and east of the city...I wonder if the NAM's higher resolution will help it see this event better than the globals Those living between Englewood Cliffs, Poughkeepsie, and Bridgeport are in the consistent bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep No offense, but I am hoping it shifts back south again and nails SE PA possible, the jackpot has been shifting every run, north or south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z NAM says Hudson Valley FTW. Dang I wish I was up there. Someone may luck out with 6-10 inches who really wasn't expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm diggin it, it just needs to stop trending east now. Looks like the 18z nam would give good snowfalls to people between NYC and HVN Sounds good for most of Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z NAM says Hudson Valley FTW. Dang I wish I was up there. Someone may luck out with 6-10 inches who really wasn't expecting it. See my post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sounds good for most of Long Island yeah its very good for you guys this run, 0.50-.0.75 so far for most of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 See my post above Yeah it could be anywhere but the lower Hudson Valley isn't a bad guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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