forkyfork Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For my money, I'd take the WRF ARW in any mesoscale situation http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/model_m.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 SUNY MM5 only goes out to 60 but has a deepening 988 mb low off of Atlantic City at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 24hr Accum out to 60 MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Which model is best at picking out the placement of the Norlun on Friday? Rossi The NAM, MM5, WRF. All the short-term hi res models should pin point it the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thank you for the information. Is the WRF-NMM any good? For my money, I'd take the WRF ARW in any mesoscale situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 euro has just started, ill do the inverted trof here, but then im going to take it over to the other thread for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thank you for the information. Is the WRF-NMM any good? it did very well with 2009 invertred trof for phl, i remember it quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thank you. This has high potential to be a very interesting event. The MM5 really looks amazing and I have the ARW out to 48 hrs and it already has the trough from the DelMarva extending back to about Harrisburg. It also has the low situated much like the MM5 with a 993mb about 100 miles off the coast of NJ. I would expect that it would then head NE somewhat. it did very well with 2009 invertred trof for phl, i remember it quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 out to hr 36, some lgt precip swinging through ohio valley entering wpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 48 has lgt precip over majority of pa, except se pa...and 2/3 of ny state...also some precip into northern md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 54 lgt precip for delmarva through sepa into eastern pa, all of nj and into nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Kinda makes you wonder why we need the inverted trough to get snow with a 988 low in that position. SUNY MM5 only goes out to 60 but has a deepening 988 mb low off of Atlantic City at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Good point... but first of all, it is the MM5, outside of it's range... and second, we don't need a norlon event to get snow... we need a norlun event to get significant snow. Kinda makes you wonder why we need the inverted trough to get snow with a 988 low in that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thank you for the information. Is the WRF-NMM any good? it did very well with 2009 invertred trof for phl, i remember it quite well. Caveat this with "I am not a modeler," but all of the modeling guys I know like the ARW physics package a lot better than the NMM package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 60 lgt precip from ilg to boston...some lgt to mod from watertown to pughkeepsie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 where is ILG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 66 lgt precip from edison nj through sussex nj on northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 where is ILG? Wilmington, DE I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 72 has some lgt precip over sne and lgt to mod pver bos area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Kinda makes you wonder why we need the inverted trough to get snow with a 988 low in that position. I was thinking same thing..But is that something New or was a low like that progged all along ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no real inverted trough on this run from the getgo,.. eveyrone is about a rough .10"-.25" (Philly-NYC) .. then .25-maybe .5" from Ct, Mass back into upstate NY.. as somewhat of a inverted trough takes shape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EURO sounds a lot like the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was thinking same thing..But is that something New or was a low like that progged all along ? I think it is related to the trough...considering the connection to a slightly deeper low center out over the Atlantic, I'm not well versed in these things, but I wasn't expecting to see such a noticeable surface feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 EURO sounds a lot like the GFS... Not really. GFS had .43" for LGA NAM had .77" Euro sounds like it has .1"-.20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 on the euro, the inverted trof switched to sne, they get .25-.5 phl .01-.1 nyc .1-.15 smq .1 abe .1 hazleton .1-.15 ttn .01-.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Not really. GFS had .43" for LGA NAM had .77" Euro sounds like it has .1"-.20". I was talking about E PA/NJ, which was <0.25 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 on the euro, the inverted trof switched to sne, they get .25-.5 phl .01-.1 nyc .1-.15 smq .1 abe .1 hazleton .1-.15 ttn .01-.1 Yup that makes more sense, NAM / GFS probably digging the PV too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The euro is probably not your go to model in this setup, needs high res short term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yup that makes more sense, NAM / GFS probably digging the PV too far south. Not necessarily, The Euro has had issues at this range for the last 2 threats. We'll see, but SNE is Norluns climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 why? the Euro is the outlier with storm 1 right now..most other modela spitting out .25-.50 with higher amounts in norlun locations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.