tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yep.. exactly.. a quicker coastal will help give us some more northerly component in the surface wind trajectory to try to help avoid BL temp issues. 12z ggem looks a lot like the 6z gfs in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The trough is too broad at the moment. We need a stronger S/W to sharpen it up...then we are in for a real beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Interior looks good on the GGEM. It's a good setup for those shafted by the last one here. I'm excited for the snowstorm on Friday... Looks good for a 4"+ snowfall! Are you talking about next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i expect next weeks event to come north and once storm 1 passes I think the models will start showing it.. Any empirical evidence you'd like to share on why you think this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres the hr 144 color map That looks nice. A lot of energy still diving down into the trough. Next frame would probably be nice for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I hate when someone says they were "shafted" by a snowstorm as if they were "owed" a storm. Prior to last winter, from 07-09 the interior was getting nailed and the coast was getting nothing. You will get your snow..just chill. Lol I remember how the coast was whining the same way those years, just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z ggem looks a lot like the 6z gfs in my eyes. yea, you're right. I just looked at the 6z gfs again. It definitiely has similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12z ggem looks a lot like the 6z gfs in my eyes. was comparing the two myself and I agree. The atlantic low develops in the exact same place, it just seems the energy transfer happens earlier on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That looks nice. A lot of energy still diving down into the trough. Next frame would probably be nice for many. Check out ewall in 20 minutes for the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Seems like a high number of the posts in this thread consist of people saying "what" they expect to happen that is different from the model depiction (usually favorable with respect to them getting snow in their back yard), without providing a single scintilla of meteorological rationale for "why" that deviation will occur. AKA wishcasting. Makes for a lot of drek to wade through. Please stop. Thank you, on behalf of thousands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm confused, is this a "model depiction" thread, or a thread where we can "generally" voice our best ideas on what we think will happen. This thread is not intended to be a play by play on the models, atleast that is not what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually, the problem here is people looking past the 9th.......this thread is about the 7-9th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm confused, is this a "model depiction" thread, or a thread where we can "generally" voice our best ideas on what we think will happen. This thread is not intended to be a play by play on the models, atleast that is not what I thought. This is the play by play thread....at least in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This is not a model depitiction thread..just a discussion about possible threats. All the players are on the field for a major coastal next week...just a matter as to how they line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm confused, is this a "model depiction" thread, or a thread where we can "generally" voice our best ideas on what we think will happen. This thread is not intended to be a play by play on the models, atleast that is not what I thought. Little bit of both, But if you want to prognosticate what models WILL do in future runs back it up with evidence. Arthritis acting up in your left knee doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hope this isnt in the wrong thread. Someone asked what the ggem looks like past 144, this should make everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Little bit of both, But if you want to prognosticate what models WILL do in future runs back it up with evidence. Arthritis acting up in your left knee doesn't count. That makes sense, and that's what people should be doing. But like I said, this thread seems to be too general and getting out of touch with respect to time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Disregard my previous comment...still mostly an I-95 and east special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, the thread is labeled wrong......it ends the 9th and no where mention model, play by play. Its as if people don't care to here others opinions, only model forecasts. Ask yourself one question. Does it matter? No need to knit-pick over the title. Models show a possible threat next week. No need to create a new thread for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 there should be nothing wrong with voicing your opinions but there has to be some meteorological reasoning (that is exoplained) behind it........imho Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the storm threat next week needs its own thread. i care more about friday right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, the thread is labeled wrong......it ends the 9th and no where mention model, play by play. Its as if people don't care to here others opinions, only model forecasts. I disagree, and as someone who wants to learn, I appreciate an explanation attached to a prognostication. Simply saying: "I think it will do this or that" without any reasoning leaves the novice bewildered and the more experienced, frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the storm threat next week needs its own thread. i care more about friday right now do you think the trough that everyone keeps talking about can be narrowed down at this point to a geographical range like ny to boston.......or do you think it is still very much up in the air at this point......if at all i guess too?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Any empirical evidence you'd like to share on why you think this? Just a Hunch..And as U can see with GGEM, not a bad one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 do you think the trough that everyone keeps talking about can be narrowed down at this point to a geographical range like ny to boston.......or do you think it is still very much up in the air at this point......if at all i guess too?? Pick a spot between PHL & BOS. Its still far out to pinpint. Maybe 12-18 hours before you will get a better idea,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Just a Hunch..And as U can see with GGEM, not a bad one.. Fair enough, CMC looks very purty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the storm threat next week needs its own thread. i care more about friday right now Which model is best at picking out the placement of the Norlun on Friday? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Which model is best at picking out the placement of the Norlun on Friday? Rossi Tony(Rainshadow) said the RGEM has been the best in the past. The storm isn't in the RGEM timeframe yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 do you think the trough that everyone keeps talking about can be narrowed down at this point to a geographical range like ny to boston.......or do you think it is still very much up in the air at this point......if at all i guess too?? at this point, i would put higher probabilities around the nyc metro, but it could easily jump between philly and ct we might not know until it actually sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 For my money, I'd take the WRF ARW in any mesoscale situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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