IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Get ready..monster coming on the 12z GFS everything comes together just a hair too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Get ready..monster coming on the 12z GFS no monster, just a NC/VA special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Sorry to be IMBY on this one (but I saw a few others asking) What is the best station to use for when trying to get a sounding for Staten Island. On most occasions, we differ greatly from central park (last storm by about 8 inchs), we are relativly close to newark so KEWR? Thanks -Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no monster, just a NC/VA special Turns the corner.. the development is just slow. Run could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The trough is too wide and the energy diving down is not quite in time but I would expect that to fall into place as the event nears. Definitly looks more like a miller A type of event though rather than a distinct miller B on the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That good overrunning event happens again at hrs. 276 and 288. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no monster, just a NC/VA special I'd say we are in a very good position for that storm in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 unless the trough sharpens, i dont see next weeks system coming up the coast. with the pv sliding down into the GL and broadening to the NE like that. its an OTS solution. its a give and take......so if the pv isnt as strong and doesnt expand to the E or NE, then theres a shot. but then we have to account for the energy in the plains, when does it dive in? i dont expect this to be ironed out until the norlun event unfolds. and if that is further SW then currently progged, then mid week potential is also further south. theres alot of pieces that are just beginning to be put together...and then theres many more pieces after that. its like you cant build a proper home without a strong foundation, and this weekend we begin to build the foundation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 unless the trough sharpens, i dont see next weeks system coming up the coast. Classic weather board post right here. Essentially what you are saying is that if the environmental factors needed to bring the storm up the coast do not exist...the storm will not come up the coast. I have to say, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 unless the trough sharpens, i dont see next weeks system coming up the coast. with the pv sliding down into the GL and broadening to the NE like that. its an OTS solution. its a give and take......so if the pv isnt as strong and doesnt expand to the E or NE, then theres a shot. but then we have to account for the energy in the plains, when does it dive in? i dont expect this to be ironed out until the norlun event unfolds. and if that is further SW then currently progged, then mid week potential is also further south. theres alot of pieces that are just beginning to be put together...and then theres many more pieces after that. its like you cant build a proper home without a strong foundation, and this weekend we begin to build the foundation. i expect next weeks event to come north and once storm 1 passes I think the models will start showing it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Classic weather board post right here. Essentially what you are saying is that if the environmental factors needed to bring the storm up the coast do not exist...the storm will not come up the coast. I have to say, I agree. If he didn't fumble the ball, he could have ran longer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS lifts out the cold it had before at the end of the run. But that could just be a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Classic weather board post right here. Essentially what you are saying is that if the environmental factors needed to bring the storm up the coast do not exist...the storm will not come up the coast. I have to say, I agree. yea reading it back, it does sound like that.... lol the John Madden of weather but its for those people that are looking at the models and worrying about qpf or where the sfc low placement is. theres no point in doing that. just look at the "envionmental factors" lol, those will be better served. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 i expect next weeks event to come north and once storm 1 passes I think the models will start showing it.. not really saying much there....whats your reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ggem at hr 108, this may turn the corner, good ridging out ahead of the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 This one is going to bold well for us...you can see the energy diving down from the midwest just a tad too late...that will change...plenty plenty of time to go on this one. More energy, sharper S/W should allow the trough to go negative sooner. I think the end result will be a real beast for MA on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love having the GFS suppressing the storm in this timeframe. Much rather have the storm modeled to my south now than be in the bullseye 6+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 12 GGEm has the heaviest qpf north east of NYC over CT and parts of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 ggem at hr 120 2 pronged storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I love having the GFS suppressing the storm in this timeframe. Much rather have the storm modeled to my south now than be in the bullseye 6+ days out. This is not a classic supressed solution. The storm comes north just not in time because the energy is not strong enough to dig out a nice sharp trough. The end result is a broad trough weaker solution. Expect this to change as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Agree...the biggest storms we have had in the Northern MA have always been suppressed until a couple days prior...it is as they say a normal bias. I am expecting a wide spread "significant" winter storm next week. Should be an interesting week! I love having the GFS suppressing the storm in this timeframe. Much rather have the storm modeled to my south now than be in the bullseye 6+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 144 on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm still liking the I-84 corridor for a jackpot area from NE PA to SE NY. Maybe the area sandwiched between I-80 and I-84 (north to south) across that region. I still don't think many places, even in that area get over 4 or 5 inches. The rest of our region primarily 1-3". This event should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 hr 144 on the ggem I'd say the GGEM is on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM looks like a appalacian mountain transfer jump to coast and redevelopment.. The GFS has been remarkably consistant showing that storm hitting us, pretty far out.. this is like the first time this morning that it deviated.. I'd say that's good news having such good consistancy this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'd say the GGEM is on board! Can you explain to me what I'm looking for on the map that is good, kind of a newbie when it comes to reading the maps. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM looks like a appalacian mountain transfer jump to coast and redevelopment.. The GFS has been remarkably consistant showing that storm hitting us, pretty far out.. this is like the first time this morning that it deviated.. I'd say that's good news having such good consistancy this far out. yup, and how soon that primary dies and when the coastal becomes the main one determines who gets rain or snow or mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Interior looks good on the GGEM. It's a good setup for those shafted by the last one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yup, and how soon that primary dies and when the coastal becomes the main one determines who gets rain or snow or mix. yep.. exactly.. a quicker coastal will help give us some more northerly component in the surface wind trajectory to try to help avoid BL temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 heres the hr 144 color map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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