Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS is like the little engine that could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Taken literally this run ends up giving north Ga a moderate sleet/snow event. Soundings for atlanta and athens look like sleet with only a barely above freezing 850mb layer and subfreezing boundary layer. Snow north of atlanta and athens of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Even if the GFS verified verbatim it's still a good hit for my area so it doesn't bother me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS is like the little engine that could. Perfect analogy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It seems like the models are having a hard time getting a grasp on this "pattern" that it seems we're trying to get into that started with the Christmas Day system...JMO from an untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 it would be awesome if we can some how get that second shortwave to close off over TN. But I suppose the pattern does not really fit that idea. I like what I see regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 09Z SREF and other guidance indicates to me that the GFS is suppressing/killing the fitst wave too quickly- so I am still very encouraged about this system. I hope the Euro agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hey guys my morning update for those interested. http://www.examiner....-possible-later Looks like central NC is going to see some wintery weather either way come Sunday night and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the GFS is stalling the low in the Gulf, thanks to the incoming Rockies wave, but considering the biases of the GFS , this is an excellent run. As long as the Euro maintains its look with the lakes Vortex pulling east/easing up (still a big question mark), then the precip should be substantially further north than the GFS has. IE, Miller A, with plenty cold across the northern thirds of Miss, Ala, GA and the Carolinas. Also southern 2/3 of Tenn imo. Robert, This is twice you have mentioned this southern 2/3rds of TN jazz. For the record I don't like this, it's borderline blasphemy..... hahaha All kidding aside, thanks for the TN mentions. I have seen enough of these storms to know there is a good chance for I-40 north with this setup. Too many times from several days out, I have seen the sweet spot of I-20 (to I-40 on the northern edge) shift to an I-40 and north snow with mixed snow, sleet, ice south of 40. Not saying it will happen, but the setup is there to include BNA to TYS, to TRI in the potential for a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The way this is evolving sort of fits my thoughts a few days ago, with a one-two punch. First the Miller A, and right on its heels will be re-development of overruning along the baroclinic zone. I know thats hard to imagine since it has happened only a couple times since the early 80's, but thats how its shaping up. The GFS is going to have trouble resolving this, but the Euro was also hinting at that. This could end up being a great storm for some areas, with several days of cold, snow, sleet and ZR depending on where you are. Next week looks like it could be the beginning of a lot of fun. I like how all the models are at least showing something wintry for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Robert, This is twice you have mentioned this southern 2/3rds of TN jazz. For the record I don't like this, it's borderline blasphemy..... hahaha All kidding aside, thanks for the TN mentions. I have seen enough of these storms to know there is a good chance for I-40 north with this setup. Too many times from several days out, I have seen the sweet spot of I-20 (to I-40 on the northern edge) shift to an I-40 and north snow with mixed snow, sleet, ice south of 40. Not saying it will happen, but the setup is there to include BNA to TYS, to TRI in the potential for a good snow. You'll have snow alright, just might not be much of it, that's the problem for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS snow map from SV has all of NC getting 4-8 except my dreaded snow triangle which is 2-4 and FAY east gets zero...RDU has 8-12 right over it...but wouldn't worry about any of it, it's just fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 RAH increasing the snow pops for north of 64. TONIGHT...NEAR TERM MODELS APPEAR TO BECOMING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. S/W CURRENTLY DROPPING SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PROGGED TO BE OVER THE TN VALLEY BY 06Z THU. THIS FEATURE THEN PROJECTED TO SCOOT ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHEN IN THE PROCESS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. RH/TEMP CROSS SECTIONS OVERLAYED WITH LIFT SUGGEST BEST LIFT THROUGH THE FAVORED DENDRITE/SNOW GROWTH AREA NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RDU AFTER 06Z...DISSIPATING/MOVING E-NE AFTER 12Z. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE P-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS THE NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES STILL DEPICT A SURFACE BASED 2000-3000 THICK LAYER OF TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THOUGH TEMPS QUICKLY COOL OFF ALOFT. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EPISODE OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WHERE WET BULB TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN FREEZING MAY OCCUR AFTER 06Z. THUS STILL EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF 64. WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES OCCUR...MAY SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER PRECIP RATES CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THIS AREA (PRETTY MUCH FROM ROXBORO OVER TO NEAR ROANOKE RAPIDS) STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A DUSTING/LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA THOUGH BEFORE MAKING WHOLESALE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO SOLID CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The GFS snow map from SV has all of NC getting 4-8 except my dreaded snow triangle which is 2-4 and FAY east gets zero...RDU has 8-12 right over it...but wouldn't worry about any of it, it's just fun to look at. Can you post that here or do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Can you post that here or do you have a link? I guess I will have to put it in my sig I've told you and others a billion times... I AM NOT ALLOWED TO POST ANY MAPS FROM SV!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You'll have snow alright, just might not be much of it, that's the problem for you. Woah there partner. Not trying to wish no snow on anyone and I hope you get a lot, but way too early to tell who will or won't have much snow from this. Besides, "much" is relative to one's own thinking. Give me 4-6 (certainly possible) and I consider that to be ........................... "much" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I was curious to know what causes the freezing line to retrograde back further north, during hr. 126 and then on per the 12z GFS? Is it the strength of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GSP AFD Update Hmmm, something about snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I guess I will have to put it in my sig I've told you and others a billion times... I AM NOT ALLOWED TO POST ANY MAPS FROM SV!!!!!!! OK. Maybe someone can get the snow maps from somewhere else. I think they are just fun to look at and see if it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 CMC is a big hit. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/235_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GGEM is showing a bowling ball monster in texas at 96hrs. It looks like this run might be too strong and far north with the southern stream for snow. It could be a damaging ice storm though. Edit: Wow, crippling winter storm for all the interior southeast at 108hrs. Not sure where the snow line is, but wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 CMC is a big hit. http://www.weatherof...ast/235_100.gif So the 0z EURO and 12z CMC look very nice and the GFS is a hodge podge of something. Really messy looking. (this is regarding the weekend threat). I hope you luck out tonight as my temps have soared today to 47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Woah there partner. Not trying to wish no snow on anyone and I hope you get a lot, but way too early to tell who will or won't have much snow from this. Besides, "much" is relative to one's own thinking. Give me 4-6 (certainly possible) and I consider that to be ........................... "much" Wasn't a forecast, just referring to the models as a whole. Precip would be your problem for a big snow(even the 4-6) you mention, on most any but maybe the DGEX so far. Edit:maybe the CMC is in play for something big for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The way this is evolving sort of fits my thoughts a few days ago, with a one-two punch. First the Miller A, and right on its heels will be re-development of overruning along the baroclinic zone. I know thats hard to imagine since it has happened only a couple times since the early 80's, but thats how its shaping up. The GFS is going to have trouble resolving this, but the Euro was also hinting at that. This could end up being a great storm for some areas, with several days of cold, snow, sleet and ZR depending on where you are. Yea I agree with you, this is defiantly a long duration / dual system ordeal since we are dealing with two different shortwaves. Any degree of combinations is possible, from both features being completely separate to full phasing. The problem is that the models have not yet figured out what solution is more likely, so they keep wildly varying from one to the other. It seems like the 12z run of the gfs has a delayed phase solution. Even after the first shortwave dampens out entirely, its energy still is strong enough (as evidence by the low in the Gulf) to cause a major dip in the secondary shortwave. Its very delicate, since if the southern stream shortwave is slightly weaker, the phase doesn't occur and the first storm goes out to sea, and the second shortwave doesn't have enough energy to dig down and pull up another Gulf Low. Basically... its a nice solution from the gfs, but its still a solution that is not set in stone and only minor changes will cause another completely different solution. I think things have not quite settled in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 09Z SREF and other guidance indicates to me that the GFS is suppressing/killing the fitst wave too quickly- so I am still very encouraged about this system. I hope the Euro agrees. If this ends up being another major winter storm, these last two winters will be remembered for a very long time. The ggem looks good. Like others have said, possibly far enough north to give us precip type issues (IP/ZR) but big hit regardless I would think. Looks to be around 0.60 to 0.75 liquid totals. Then it looks like some light snows could come with the next system behind it (especially tn/nc) as it looks further south than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 CMC is a big hit. http://www.weatherof...ast/235_100.gif GGEM is showing a bowling ball monster in texas at 96hrs. It looks like this run might be too strong and far north with the southern stream for snow. It could be a damaging ice storm though. Edit: Wow, crippling winter storm for all the interior southeast at 108hrs. Not sure where the snow line is, but wow!! yes its a little strong to say the least. It's a blend of the GFS and Euro, but overdoes the development I think. Just looking at the big picture, ridge in Baffin, 50/50 strong confluence, extremely cold air in place, and a strong southern wave heading east along the Guf, its hard not to see the writing on the wall. Major Winter storm, no matter how you slice it. The question is how it all evolves as there should be 2, maybe 3 parts to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wasn't a forecast, just referring to the models as a whole. Precip would be your problem for a big snow(even the 4-6) you mention, on most any but maybe the DGEX so far. Edit:maybe the CMC is in play for something big for you too. Not a problem, you are talking models. I am talking synoptic pattern and what should most likely happen..............no biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep..although I should say it might be too warm here in ga..thicknesses look a little high ahead of it. However if that precip is post frontal it's a different story. Cold enough regardless for TN and probably nc. Just too hard to tell with these crappy maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 OK. Maybe someone can get the snow maps from somewhere else. I think they are just fun to look at and see if it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Per Twisterdata, the GFS paints a lovely picture from about Cheraw-Bennettsville up into Central NC starting about 2 a.m. or so on Tuesday. Eyewall would love this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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