ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know it's the extended NAM, but the 12Z run looks very similar to the 0Z Euro for 0Z Sunday. 850 temps are pretty much identical with the Euro as the model pops a SLP in southern Texas at 84hrs. The only difference I can note is at 5H the southern trough is tilted positive on the NAM, while the GFS/EURO are both neutral at this same time stamp (0Z Sunday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS coming in wetter for NC for the event tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The radar looks awesome right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS coming in wetter for NC for the event tonight. It seems the closer we get, the wetter the model runs get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It seems the closer we get, the wetter the model runs get. Indeed, the kind of trend I like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Hey guys my morning update for those interested. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/light-snow-rain-possible-the-next-few-days-with-bigger-storm-possible-later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Indeed, the kind of trend I like! the RUC leaves an axis of moisture over most of NC overnight tonight, while the southern part scoots offshore, that may end up being a good thing somewhere in NC, with light snow overnight. Right now, the 850 drops below zero on it everywhere north and west of about Fayetteville, but with the warmer boundary layers, it always comes down to precip rates. I think some areas will be snow, like 40 areas from RDU west, but for my around along 74 from CLT and west, we're going to fight the lowest 1000 feet of above freezing air a while. If rates can overperform, the snow may make it down. It has it arriving here around 7 pm, and continueing through 3 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It seems the closer we get, the wetter the model runs get. Per the 12z NAM/GFS the 2m Temps are mid/upper 30's so with those temps it would be rain and even it was snow it melt on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS to 72, pretty similar to the Euro at that point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Per the 12z NAM/GFS the 2m Temps are mid/upper 30's so with those temps it would be rain and even it was snow it melt on contact. Not only that, it's warm through at least 950mb. gfs/nam have 950mb temps in the 2 to 3c range with wetbulbs about the same. Which means whatever falls would be rain for a lot of folks, especially the southern half of nc. The exception being the mountains and maybe from gso to rdu but it's not a slam dunk there either..very borderline. I would think it would be cold enough for at least a mix there but it's hard to see any accumulation coming from it unless the precip is steady for a while. But for places like hickory, charlotte, etc it looks like all rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 @102 the looks further south but it might be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like the GFS is gonna take another trip to cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS suppressed at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS to 72, pretty similar to the Euro at that point... out through 108 it has a very nice looking trough in Texas of course it slowly weakens, but I think the trend here (even maybe slightly tilting neg) is for it to be stronger, longer and even though its still pretty far south, the Great Lakes vortex is moving out. Also, many systems have been much further north, so adjusting for the biases from GFS, I think this still looks very like the Euro , its plenty cold across the South from I-20, north. The big question is how far north the system really gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Quick Obs... A few flurries in Clyde, NC at Haywood Community College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Trys to pull it back around hr 114 but I think the gfs is still to far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 out through 108 it has a very nice looking trough in Texas of course it slowly weakens, but I think the trend here (even maybe slightly tilting neg) is for it to be stronger, longer and even though its still pretty far south, the Great Lakes vortex is moving out. Also, many systems have been much further north, so adjusting for the biases from GFS, I think this still looks very like the Euro , its plenty cold across the South from I-20, north. The big question is how far north the system really gets. Yeah I'm not worried at all about the gfs being too suppressed this run. We have seen it so many times of late at this range only for it to be wrong..and certainly so with all of our recent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Updated RAH AFD 11:03am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 the GFS is stalling the low in the Gulf, thanks to the incoming Rockies wave, but considering the biases of the GFS , this is an excellent run. As long as the Euro maintains its look with the lakes Vortex pulling east/easing up (still a big question mark), then the precip should be substantially further north than the GFS has. IE, Miller A, with plenty cold across the northern thirds of Miss, Ala, GA and the Carolinas. Also southern 2/3 of Tenn imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 out through 108 it has a very nice looking trough in Texas of course it slowly weakens, but I think the trend here (even maybe slightly tilting neg) is for it to be stronger, longer and even though its still pretty far south, the Great Lakes vortex is moving out. Also, many systems have been much further north, so adjusting for the biases from GFS, I think this still looks very like the Euro , its plenty cold across the South from I-20, north. The big question is how far north the system really gets. I'm with you, it didn't totally suppress the hell out of it and given how the trends have been in our favor this is a good run. Euro will really be in it's wheel house tonight and tomorrow so those are the models to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It looks like it phases w/ some of the energy from the 2nd wave. Goes neg tilt sooner and stronger off the Ga/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFE expands precip north Monday afternoon- from the next trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 funny enough, this run shows a rare icing event for central georgia with subfreezing temps south of macon. I don't believe it has the right solution of course but interesting none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 GFS putting down good snow in NC upstate SC Tuesday am. Timing still sower than ECMWF/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 What is this for? First I've been on since Christmas. This for this weekend or next Monday and Tuesday? nvmd saw the post above mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Reports of Snow are coming in from Nashville via Brad P. Twitter Account Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The way this is evolving sort of fits my thoughts a few days ago, with a one-two punch. First the Miller A, and right on its heels will be re-development of overruning along the baroclinic zone. I know thats hard to imagine since it has happened only a couple times since the early 80's, but thats how its shaping up. The GFS is going to have trouble resolving this, but the Euro was also hinting at that. This could end up being a great storm for some areas, with several days of cold, snow, sleet and ZR depending on where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The way this is evolving sort of fits my thoughts a few days ago, with a one-two punch. First the Miller A, and right on its heels will be re-development of overruning along the baroclinic zone. I know thats hard to imagine since it has happened only a couple times since the early 80's, but thats how its shaping up. The GFS is going to have trouble resolving this, but the Euro was also hinting at that. This could end up being a great storm for some areas, with several days of cold, snow, sleet and ZR depending on where you are. Great point Robert. This could end up being an epic 3 to 4 weeks. I thought the GFS was gonna go to Cuba as it had the vort alot farther south than 0z. yet it held it together longer and kept it farther north in the Gulf. I guess in a couple days it will come arount to the Euro solution or similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Man, that thing is in no hurry to go anywhere. Looks like light to moderate snows for a long time over a lot of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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