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January 2011 Part 2


MotoWeatherman

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Selfishly, the DGEX has me in the 4-6" range, but the depiction of the low weakening and then redeveloping does make me a little nervous and I understand the concern of others on this. I have watched snowstorms in years past as the put down snow to my west only to fizzle as they get to me and then redevelope off the coast and plaster the eastern carolinas and northward. However, the big news is what appears to be increasing agreement of several of the models on the overall idea. The 6Z GFS coming off it's bout with Crack at 0Z is encouraging also.

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Probably not.

What I find interesting about it's solution is two things. (1) I think it resembles something close to what HPC is talking about this morning. (2) If my memory is correct, I believe the 12Z EURO from Monday had a very similar solution.

The 6z DGEX was similar to the 0z GFS, which is not surprising considering the two models are somewhat related... The southern stream vort kicks off a Gulf Low on Sunday, before the H5 parcel is sheered out and sent packing into the Atlantic. The Gulf Low then weakens and meanders across the FL peninsula, to just off the EC of FL, where it is picked up by northern stream energy diving into the TN Valley on Tuesday. This result strengthens the surface reflection along the SE coast and we have a storm. There is also a weak surface reflection in NW NC on this run as the UL dives through, but the remnant low off the GA coast has no problem ramping up, instead of a full fledged Miller B handoff like previously advertised.

Southern stream pops a GOM low, that weakens and waits for the northern stream to pop a potential SE winter storm. Seems logical, but I would like to see better agreement before being sold on this just yet.

For comparison of the northern stream energy in question

0z ECMWF @ 144hrs

110105140037.gif

6z DGEX @ 138hrs

eta.500z138.gif

6z GFS @ 138hrs

gfs_500_138s.gif

0z GGEM @ 144hrs

00zggem500mbvort144.gif

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I've said it before and I'll say it again, if the DGEX has you with a foot of snow days away you have a better chance of getting zero....I prefer to not be in the bullseye on it guitar.gif

As for your thoughts on the models, I think they finally are starting to get a handle on it. Look for the 12z GFS to come in agreement with the Euro and the Euro to continue it's solution. I really doubt we see a shift with the 12z runs. Just my gut feeling. I'm feeling really good about this system and the best thing about the 00z Euro and 6z GFS is that it kept us in NC cold enough for all snow.

Burger, I agree. I think the weekend system is the one to look at and I think Charlotte just might break its slump in the FAIL zone. I think this because this storm is OLD SCHOOL Charlotte snow. Cold in place, strong LOW tracks due west to east across the gulf coast spreading in moisture over the established cold. Atlanta gets snow we get snow; 85 special. No phasing, no bombing off the coast, no deformation bands to depend on, etc, etc. Just good moisture overrunning cold. That's the stuff of the 80s right there. Hopefully it'll keep on track. I'm starting to feel comfortable with the moisture and track but I'm starting to turn my attention to the surface temps. 31-32 is no dice. We need 30 or below to get good accumulation. Anything more than that and it melts as it falls. I hate that. Let the trends continue! Cold please.

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:snowman: at 114 A sub 1004mb low just south of la, 0.10 to 0.25 amounts in ms/al...more than that in ark/la. 0c still across central ga.

at 120, widespread snow across ga, alabama, ms. 0.10 to 0.25 amounts. Low strength still the same and south of the florida panhandle. 0c runs roughly from macon to augusta to north of charleston.

Lookout...I :wub: when you talk like this Thank you for the great read this morning :hug:

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Folks...some areas need to keep an eye on the very short term, as in tonight/tomorrow...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

I still think we have the potential to have some surprises on this. What is the RUC saying?

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Burger, I agree. I think the weekend system is the one to look at and I think Charlotte just might break its slump in the FAIL zone. I think this because this storm is OLD SCHOOL Charlotte snow. Cold in place, strong LOW tracks due west to east across the gulf coast spreading in moisture over the established cold. Atlanta gets snow we get snow; 85 special. No phasing, no bombing off the coast, no deformation bands to depend on, etc, etc. Just good moisture overrunning cold. That's the stuff of the 80s right there. Hopefully it'll keep on track. I'm starting to feel comfortable with the moisture and track but I'm starting to turn my attention to the surface temps. 31-32 is no dice. We need 30 or below to get good accumulation. Anything more than that and it melts as it falls. I hate that. Let the trends continue! Cold please.

Agree 100%. This looks like it could be good for many of us, but we need colder temps. Virtually every snow we have had in the last few years have come with marginal temps. This had led to much of the snow melting on contact and roads remaining only wet and slushy. Each snow we have have received from Christmas day back to 2008 could have been much greater with temps a degree or two lower. I guess that is a constant concern with deep south snow.

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Folks...some areas need to keep an eye on the very short term, as in tonight/tomorrow...

http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.intellica...px?animate=true

I still think we have the potential to have some surprises on this. What is the RUC saying?

I could be way wrong, but isn't much of that moisture expected to get scrubbed out over the mountains, leaving very little left to saturate the dry air here in NC?

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Folks...some areas need to keep an eye on the very short term, as in tonight/tomorrow...

http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.intellica...px?animate=true

I still think we have the potential to have some surprises on this. What is the RUC saying?

Rankin, I'm keeping my eyes on it as some people could get a surprise.... It should be a light even either way and its a race to see if any precip can get in here with temps cold enough. Right now I'm sitting at 30/27 so not a lot of room to wetbulb if temps go up much more.

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rankin: Radar certainly looking good -- and north, to boot!

Looking at the Ruc doesn't even look right. The SPC mesoscale page for my regios drops that 850 0c pretty far south right now while the Ruc is saying it's way away... wtf? The Ruc doesnt even look like the current radar right now.

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I want to say it's two or three days but someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

It really doesn't have a period that it does better in that I'm aware of. I've never once heard anyone say it does. It's an extension of the nam (doesn't start until hour 84). We always talk about how awful the long range nam is well, the dgex is initialized with the 78 hour nam plots..so it's no wonder it's usually awful.

Lookout...I :wub: when you talk like this Thank you for the great read this morning :hug:

lol..me too :lmao: My pleasure though..especially since it nails us :whistle:

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Not to give the DGEX more discussion than it deserves....

But aren't those two impact areas from different systems? the nice line that cuts from the Bama state line over to Georgetown on the coast is one storm, with the growing blob paralleling I-95 in NC is from a later bombing low, correct?

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Folks...some areas need to keep an eye on the very short term, as in tonight/tomorrow...

http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.intellica...px?animate=true

I still think we have the potential to have some surprises on this. What is the RUC saying?

12z NAM has upped it's qpf across NC tonight and tomorrow. However, I think for most of us (central NC anyway) the boundary layer and precipitation rates will be a problem. Although I can't speak for other areas.

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12z NAM has upped it's qpf across NC tonight and tomorrow. However, I think for most of us (central NC anyway) the boundary layer and precipitation rates will be a problem. Although I can't speak for other areas.

RAH talked about that last night. The higher the precip rates the better chance of snow (over rain). Another thing in our favor is this is a night event.

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If the DGEX is correct the CLT triangle of absolute snow death would continue... a low dampening out as it moves into FL then redeveloping off the SE coast as depicted would leave a big snow hole between the CLT area and foothills. At least it is showing the potential for this weekend so I'll take it for now

That DGEX looks so common for storms here lately. HOpe we break the trends.

Burger, I agree. I think the weekend system is the one to look at and I think Charlotte just might break its slump in the FAIL zone. I think this because this storm is OLD SCHOOL Charlotte snow. Cold in place, strong LOW tracks due west to east across the gulf coast spreading in moisture over the established cold. Atlanta gets snow we get snow; 85 special. No phasing, no bombing off the coast, no deformation bands to depend on, etc, etc. Just good moisture overrunning cold. That's the stuff of the 80s right there. Hopefully it'll keep on track. I'm starting to feel comfortable with the moisture and track but I'm starting to turn my attention to the surface temps. 31-32 is no dice. We need 30 or below to get good accumulation. Anything more than that and it melts as it falls. I hate that. Let the trends continue! Cold please.

Good post. The RUC has snow for NC tonight, spreading from sw to Ne over most of the state, arriving around dark. Temps are barely cold enough aloft so it will matter on rates, elevation and exact temps at the surface if its snow or mix or plain rain, but probably changing to snow about everywhere.

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Looks like the precip might be more than origanlly thought for tonight. Nothing big, but 1 to 2 inches is nice. I like the look of next week, though. Just read Matthew East's blog and the idea of a Miller A sounds good.

Don't get your hopes up for accumulating snow tonight Brick. Not saying it wont happen, but I wouldn't bank on it either. Think Dec. 18th.

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Folks...some areas need to keep an eye on the very short term, as in tonight/tomorrow...

http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_024l.gif

http://www.intellica...px?animate=true

I still think we have the potential to have some surprises on this. What is the RUC saying?

Agree with ya on this and got my eyes peeled as much as possible, won't get out of work till about 3 today so will be checking periodically. The RUC doesn't look up to speed with waht's currently happening on radar but a lot of what we see isn't reaching the ground I'm guessing. With that said it still looks good for the early morning hours on the RUC dropping the freezing line down to the NW corner of SC and NeGa with light moisture reaching the ground.

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Not to give the DGEX more discussion than it deserves....

But aren't those two impact areas from different systems? the nice line that cuts from the Bama state line over to Georgetown on the coast is one storm, with the growing blob paralleling I-95 in NC is from a later bombing low, correct?

yes, and I should have been more clear about that in my post. The first swath through central GA into SC is from the Gulf Low, as it weakens and traverses the FL peninsula. The second swath in NC is from the coastal as it deepens and exits stage right. Crappy model at any range though and purely for entertainment value, as well as some of the remote possibilities on the table.

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Auburn is reporting a "light" thunderstorm.

Update from FFC

XUS62 KFFC 051454AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

954 AM EST WED JAN 5 2011

.UPDATE...

CURRENT RADARS SHOW EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER

CENTRAL AL AND GA MOVING EAST AT 30 KTS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WAS

OVER NORTH GA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER MOST OF THE

FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10

INCH IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 0.40 INCH IN CENTRAL GA CAN BE EXPECTED

BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS TODAY.

NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS

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