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January 2011 Part 2


MotoWeatherman

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Sorry dude but you're wrong, the way you stated it inferred that currently the NAO was in the tank...which it is not.

Why don't you update your profile first with the location, before starting an argument here about the differences between climo and a Met degree. Furthermore, please do not link a users profile in bold when replying in text, we know who the person is, and it is frowned upon. Thanks :)

Thanks guys............ Hope he understands now.

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This forum is meant for scientific debates not for drama and slander. So please provide a counterexample climatologically about the NAO.

I offered you insight on proper netiquette around this here forum, not a debate as to the boards mission. Trust me, I know about the debates here, and they do not include slander or drama, as you imply. As I stated with your linking member profiles in bold; drama, slander, and linking user profiles is frowned upon. This is not twitter, so please stop, I have a firm understanding of the NAO, both past, present, and maybe even future states. Thanks :)

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It's not too often you see Augusta, Georgia's season-to-date snowfall ahead of Washington's in mid-January.

AGS - 4.0"

DCA - 3.5"

IAD - 3.1"

LOL, that is awesome.

It's also awesome to know I have more than 4x their total (around 13 inches) :snowman:

I'm sure that will change in their favor but I'll enjoy it while it lasts.

Much like december, January has been impressive so far in the temp department. Here is the current departures.

mon2day.F.gif

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LOL, that is awesome.

It's also awesome to know I have more than 4x their total (around 13 inches) :snowman:

I'm sure that will change in their favor but I'll enjoy it while it lasts.

Much like december, January has been impressive so far in the temp department. Here is the current departures.

mon2day.F.gif

35.0 so far for January and 34.8 for December for here.

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What you said:

WOW look how negative the NAO is!!!!!

You didn't qualify it with anything...from a pure grammatical perspective the use of "is" implies it's current state. Now look at how the NAO is right now (current state):

PfzfP.png

We might be splitting hairs but instead of getting defensive about it, this could have just been solved by saying, "sorry I meant to say look how negative the NAO has been this winter".

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35.0 so far for January and 34.8 for December for here.

Nice. Who would have thought january would be equally as cold as december through this point given how extreme december was?

You know what stands out about that map is how widespread the negative departures are. From coast to coast, most of the country has had below average temps. It really is unusual to see it that. I mean how often do you see -7 degree departures in utah and -5 to -6c degree departures in the southeast? That is just wild.

Btw, I ventured over to the mid atlantic forum after eric pointed those totals out figuring they probably are at each others throat. Sure enough they are lol. Not a lot of happy folks over there. I don't envy midlo, ian, randy, etc having to deal with them.

However..

This forum is meant for scientific debates not for drama and slander. So please provide a counterexample climatologically about the NAO.

They are simply stating their opinion and there has certainly been no slander in doing so. Let's drop this issue.

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=

lol - true! for years we whined about the NAO and PNA and never being what we want (ie that stupid non stop +NAO). now we are getting it (and now the reason why we want this set up should be obvious)

i am still amazed at this la nina winter and what has transpired. it doesnt appear to be ending yet, at least through early feb. if we keep this through the end of feb or early march i will be very impressed (and depressed for next year, i mean the chances of us getting three winters in a row?)

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lol - true! for years we whined about the NAO and PNA and never being what we want (ie that stupid non stop +NAO). now we are getting it (and now the reason why we want this set up should be obvious)

i am still amazed at this la nina winter and what has transpired. it doesnt appear to be ending yet, at least through early feb. if we keep this through the end of feb or early march i will be very impressed (and depressed for next year, i mean the chances of us getting three winters in a row?)

Well, if we have truly entered a period of -NAO winters, this pattern could be possible for several winters to come. What I am waiting on is a weak El-Nino coupled with a -NAO winter like these last two. The sun has continued to be somewhat quiet and the signs are that it's going to continue. I would say that the odds of another good winter is pretty good right now. Relax and enjoy the ride.

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Well, if we have truly entered a period of -NAO winters, this pattern could be possible for several winters to come. What I am waiting on is a weak El-Nino coupled with a -NAO winter like these last two. The sun has continued to be somewhat quiet and the signs are that it's going to continue. I would say that the odds of another good winter is pretty good right now. Relax and enjoy the ride.

Bastardi thinks we're in for a 20-30 year period of cooler winters, fwiw. And it wouldn't surprise me. I have to think that with the quite Sun, the longer term variables like the AMO and the PDO, and things that we don't even realize yet, there are going to be a lot of curve balls going forward, when it comes to LR forecasting. I was skeptical this year when I saw everyone put out their typical La Nina winter forecasts. Not being critical here, but I had a feeling that this winter would surprise some folks, which is turning out to be quite the understatement. I think it's very possible that we are headed back to a period of more classic winters, i.e. colder and snowier than what we've experienced of late.

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Well, if we have truly entered a period of -NAO winters, this pattern could be possible for several winters to come. What I am waiting on is a weak El-Nino coupled with a -NAO winter like these last two. The sun has continued to be somewhat quiet and the signs are that it's going to continue. I would say that the odds of another good winter is pretty good right now. Relax and enjoy the ride.

most definitely! a lot of times some of us talk about growing up in n ga in the the 70s and 80s. these past two winters are much more like what i remember...with places like atl and ath north getting a couple of winter events per year. also the old 'up i85 rule' seems to be coming back lol.

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I posted this in the other thread, but it probably better belongs here:

GFS long range looks somewhat colder than normal throughout, thanks to a -PNA pattern. There is no hint of a west-based -NAO or Greenland block returning. There is a series of moderate to strong HPs diving into the Rockies and sliding SE through the Plains and east off the mid-Atlantic. Without perfect timing, this pattern in most cases will yield cold with warm-ups before precipitation events OR cold and dry. It will be difficult to get a SE winter storm out of this kind of pattern without perfect timing, which is not impossible. At least there's no torch.

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Starting to become more interested in the cold the gfs and euro are showing in the long range than the potential rain storm here. Gfs and euro both cold to very cold beyond day 7. It's pretty impressive to me that both models show a somewhat similar cold outbreak at that range. In fact they both have the system the gfs shows around day 9/10. Although the details are a bit different with the euro showing a possible wedge/damming situation rather than the high back over the plains as the gfs is showing.

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