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January 2011 Part 2


MotoWeatherman

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I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period.

In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely.

Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time.

Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric.

Seems like you are back the the old Cheeze that we all know. Thanks for keeping us GA folks covered and giving us realistic expectations.

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Well, FWIW-- Just watched JB's BIG DOG..... And He showed where the pattern is headed (COLD) where he thought a thaw was coming, So he said a updated winter forecast was coming prolly next Tuesday and there was going to be changes.... He looked like a whipped puppy !!! :snowman:

I think a lot of us felt that way. We saw the cold first of December coming but didn't expect it through the whole month. Then the early January thaw got delayed. It keeps getting delayed. This could be the Winter we compare future ones to by the time its all said and done.

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Seems like you are back the the old Cheeze that we all know. Thanks for keeping us GA folks covered and giving us realistic expectations.

Even though GA may not get much if any frozen from the system late week, I do think we are far from done winter-wise here, the longer range Euro ensembles are intriguing.

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Even though GA may not get much if any frozen from the system late week, I do think we are far from done winter-wise here, the longer range Euro ensembles are intriguing.

Dang Cheeze. You are like the grinch. All those years of stealing our GA winter presents (crushing our wishcasts) and now your handing out statements like that. Your winter weather heart has grown.

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Regarding the 12z EC and the storm it has around 200 hrs... This was a phasing solution, much harder to predict even in the short term as we saw with the Christmas storm, and nearly impossible at this range to be modeled correctly. At 204 hrs, there is a closed 544dm H5 low just east of Little Rock with a piece of northern stream energy coming down through the central plains. It looks like it happens a little too far north and late this run, resulting in ice, but phasing of the parcels is beginning over W GA up through W NC at 216 hrs. Slide this southern stream sw south 300-400 miles, and verbatim, this would be a SN storm, not ice with the phase happening in southern GA. Needless to say, expect greater than normal flip flopping as the setup in much more complicated than the last storm with just one stream involved. Phases are harder to predict, especially more than 4 days out as a 6 hour difference in timing, or 100 miles difference in placement, yields a significantly different result.

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Well, FWIW-- Just watched JB's BIG DOG..... And He showed where the pattern is headed (COLD) where he thought a thaw was coming, So he said a updated winter forecast was coming prolly next Tuesday and there was going to be changes.... He looked like a whipped puppy !!! :snowman:

I don't hardly ever look at his blog, but after the posts I checked it out. He certainly explained all the reasons why his winter forecast will bust in a big way.. He was putting up screen shots of the euro ensembles showing well below normal temps and saying this is when I predicted our thaw or torch. He looked disgusted, but I will give him some props for owning up. It will be interesting to see how he changes his tune in his updated forecast

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Speaking of our pattern...here is something I found with regard to CLT monthly observed snowfall data (I wonder which of these years were La Nina years? I live in Belmont, NC (just a few miles S/SW of CLT International Airport). I wonder which of these years had La Nina signals?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/CLTmonthlySNobs.htm

Here is the link to the main page:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/cltcli.htm

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Its looking more and more like this week coming up is going to be a double shot of cold rain followed by a cold front. For sure not a good week if you spend a lot of time outdoors or work outdoors. It's been said about 10 million times but the pattern does look quite impressive and persistent, which is something we dont see a lot in the winters here. It seems like the pattern will relax for about a month while we sit and wait on action, certainly not the case this year so far.

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Strong, I always find it interesting snow cover doesn't show up as bright/as easily as other areas in north ga/western carolinas thanks to all the trees. Meanwhile you look at there toward ms, ark, etc and it shows up much better because of all the flat fields out that way. Sometimes I find this frustrating because it makes it look like it hasn't snowed as much as it really has.

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Strong, I always find it interesting snow cover doesn't show up as bright/as easily as other areas in north ga/western carolinas thanks to all the trees. Meanwhile you look at there toward ms, ark, etc and it shows up much better because of all the flat fields out that way. Sometimes I find this frustrating because it makes it look like it hasn't snowed as much as it really has.

That makes a lot of sense. I wondered about that when I looked at it. I know that our area had as much or more snow and less melting than many areas in the SE.

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Wow! 18z NAM goes crazy with QPF over coastal NC, large area of 2-3" amounts, 12z EC was <0.25" here for the event, GFS a little wetter but has the heaviest axis in north central NC, going to be interesting to see which verifies, but 2" this time of year here is rare...

post-382-0-93942700-1295128183.png

Also, keep a frozen eye on the second wave after this if your in western NC, and maybe even a third development, on the 21st round about.

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MEX MOS COMES IN COLDER WITH EACH RUN FOR THE FRI-SAT

PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER THINKING. THE SOURCE REGION OF THE

LATE WEEK AIR MASS EMANATES FROM A VERY COLD AIR MASS CURRENTLY

LOCATED ACROSS SIBERIA. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO APPROACH

-40C ACROSS SE CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH -16C PUSHING INTO N GA

FRI. ANALOGOUS TO SIMILAR EVENTS...E.G...12 DEC 2010...THIS WOULD

EQUATE TO HIGHS 25 TO 30 N GA AND 35 TO 40 CENTRAL GA

FRI...RECOVERING DURING THE WEEKEND BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. WILL

LEAN TOWARD THE COLDEST MEMBERS OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR

THESE PERIODS.

FINALLY...16 DAY RUN OF GFS SHOWS VERY PERSISTENT DEEP POLAR VORTEX

AND DEEP TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF

THE MONTH. OVERALL THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED BELOW TO WELL BELOW

NORMAL TEMPS AND AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF WINTER PCPN DURING THIS

PERIOD AS REPEATED SURGES OF ARCTIC/CANADIAN AIR SPILL WELL

SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

cold and more cold per FFC.

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One thing that does look questionable as we go forward is a consistent - NAO. I know it's progged to go briefly negative by the EURO, but then it heads back to positive territory at the same time we seemingly build a beautiful + PNA. I wish we could link the two together sometime in February as this would undoubtedly give us opportunity in the most climatalogically favorable month for winter weather. It appears the weakening Lanina is really giving the Pacific the ability to cooperate. It will be interesting to see if we can build more blocking. It's happened all winter, would be nice to see it happen again later this month or in February

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@ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been.

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@ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been.

Ummm No........... That was a graph showing the NAO through the end of December. It's mid January now (just so you know). Your post said Look how negative the NAO IS.,,,,,,,,, That was simply not true. You need to chill out and get your facts straight before making post that are wrong. Read more post less......

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Ummm No........... That was a graph showing the NAO through the end of December. It's mid January now (just so you know). Your post said Look how negative the NAO IS.,,,,,,,,, That was simply not true. You need to chill out and get your facts straight before making post that are wrong. Read more post less......

@ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been.

Same can be said about you haha

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@ CAD_Wedge_NC- Um please know your facts before you "try" to correct others. "This is not current. Here is a link to the up-to-date NAO.......... " Yes it is current, if you have issues with the graph then take it up with the Climate Prediction Center. They update the graph after each month has passed so this WOULD be a current graph climatologically speaking. The graph you showed, deals more with meteorology. The purpose of that graph was to show how prolonged the negative NAO has been.

Same can be said about you haha

Sorry dude but you're wrong, the way you stated it inferred that currently the NAO was in the tank...which it is not.

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just looking at this time series of the NAO, I can see that many of the Winter storms here have coincided with these periods. Of course there's a few in between transistions and even in +NAO but much more often than not, the Southeast needs a neg. NAO. It usually comes with a split pacific of sorts and displaced storm track. This long NAO looks about as big as any on the graph, up there with 52-52, 62-63, 77-78. Makes you wonder how long we can continue.

post-38-0-25072300-1295227819.gif

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Look at FoothillsNC's posting. There's a difference between meteorology and climatology...

Why don't you update your profile first with the location, before starting an argument here about the differences between climo and a Met degree. Furthermore, please do not link a users profile in bold when replying in text, we know who the person is, and it is frowned upon. Thanks :)

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Why don't you update your profile first with the location, before starting an argument here about the differences between climo and a Met degree. Furthermore, please do not link a users profile in bold when replying in text, we know who the person is, and it is frowned upon. Thanks :)

This forum is meant for scientific debates not for drama and slander. So please provide a counterexample climatologically about the NAO.

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