Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 2011 Part 2


MotoWeatherman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 821
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I had an 8am class and had to walk across state's campus this morning and I was about to die. :shiver: I was ready to kiss winter goodbye this morning.

I hear ya, I am less than a mile from campus (I'm actually [or practically] on centennial campus) and leaving for work this morning made me curse the fact that my heated seats stopped working! However, I'm still not ready to say goodbye to winter just yet ;) let me get some ski trips in first, then I'll be ready...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BEYOND THIS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE

GFS/ECMWF AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN

REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A DEEP SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND A

CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF

WINTER WX TO THE AREA IN THE 24/25 JAN PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS

KEEPS A FULL LATITUDE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IN

PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SW U.S. UPPER LOW TO BE FOUND.

THERE IS A 30DM HEIGHT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AT

240 HRS ACROSS THE SW U.S. AT ANY RATE...A VAST AREA OF ARCTIC AIR

REMAINS POOLED ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GFS

HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF VERY COLD -30C TO -40C AIR

CROSSING THE N POLE FROM RUSSIA INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NE

U.S. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALL BE VERY INTERESTING

TO WATCH...BUT CLEARLY WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER.

The latest and greatest from FFC!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BEYOND THIS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE

GFS/ECMWF AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN

REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A DEEP SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND A

CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF

WINTER WX TO THE AREA IN THE 24/25 JAN PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE GFS

KEEPS A FULL LATITUDE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IN

PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SW U.S. UPPER LOW TO BE FOUND.

THERE IS A 30DM HEIGHT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AT

240 HRS ACROSS THE SW U.S. AT ANY RATE...A VAST AREA OF ARCTIC AIR

REMAINS POOLED ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE GFS

HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF VERY COLD -30C TO -40C AIR

CROSSING THE N POLE FROM RUSSIA INTO CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NE

U.S. DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THIS WILL ALL BE VERY INTERESTING

TO WATCH...BUT CLEARLY WINTER IS FAR FROM OVER.

The latest and greatest from FFC!

I think the Euro is correct. The pattern says we should stay cold, so when we have a slight change where warmer air comes in the atmosphere doesn't like it. It will try to push out the warm air and bring things back to how they should be according to the pattern (cold).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 here this morning. No snow pack to speak of, although I will note that there are rather large icy patches still intact in shaded north facing exposures. While we did not get much in the way of accumulation this last go'round, what did accumulate is quite dense.

I'm expecting a slow and brief warm up over the next few days with then a return to the cold and possibly a setup for more wintery weather after that. :arrowhead:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the Euro is correct. The pattern says we should stay cold, so when we have a slight change where warmer air comes in the atmosphere doesn't like it. It will try to push out the warm air and bring things back to how they should be according to the pattern (cold).

Yep. By Wednesday our next storm has gone by, and another blast of cold air comes in but maybe not as widespread as this one in the Southeast, then we have to start watching where the systems dropping down the West Coast go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the Euro is correct. The pattern says we should stay cold, so when we have a slight change where warmer air comes in the atmosphere doesn't like it. It will try to push out the warm air and bring things back to how they should be according to the pattern (cold).

Going to really make the gas companies happy' i have run thru all I purchased at the pre- buy/lower rate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it's cool seeing the low readings to my south and west. I've been busy the past couple days, but I assume you guys still have snow cover. Meanwhile, up here, where there is no snow cover, my temp only made it down to 20.

Anyway, looking at the LR...as already mentioned the GFS and EURO could not be further apart. Quite a spread between the two. If the EURO is correct...then we could possibly be looking at another storm in the 10-12 day range that might be similar to what we just had (i.e. southwest shortwave ejecting east spawning Gulf low). Also, on the main forum it has been said that the new EURO weeklies keep the cold in the east for the next month, so we should at least have one more shot (perhaps several) at widespread snow in the southeast. :snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it's cool seeing the low readings to my south and west. I've been busy the past couple days, but I assume you guys still have snow cover. Meanwhile, up here, where there is no snow cover, my temp only made it down to 20.

Anyway, looking at the LR...as already mentioned the GFS and EURO could not be further apart. Quite a spread between the two. If the EURO is correct...then we could possibly be looking at another storm in the 10-12 day range that might be similar to what we just had (i.e. southwest shortwave ejecting east spawning Gulf low). Also, on the main forum it has been said that the new EURO weeklies keep the cold in the east for the next month, so we should at least have one more shot (perhaps several) at widespread snow in the southeast. :snowman:

could we get some accumulating snow on the SC coast please :whistle:

19 on the car therm this morning 2 miles inland from the beach

brrrr, looking forward to the the brief relax in the cold over the MLK holiday this weekend, may get in some golf with upper 50's to near 60 Sunday-Monday

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 F in Savannah!! Coldest of the winter to date In Dec.. there were 4 21's.

Are you down there for good now? You weren't in atlanta with these 2 storms right? It's a shame after all this time you weren't in atlanta for these past two storms. You have been throwing out statistics forever about atlanta climo and in general it wasn't good (in terms of snow amounts) and because of that I have been hoping for a long time you and atlanta get drilled to improve those statistics lol.

The savannah statistics you give are interesting but they are a far cry in terms of interesting from your work on atlanta climo. I hope you aren't down there for good now.

BTW, I've been wondering, do you know if all this cold is having an effect on wildlife and vegetation down there? It's hard to imagine this relentless cold not having some sort of effect on wildlife and vegetation in places that typically don't stay consistently cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period.

In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely.

Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time.

Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just some observations and opinions from what I see so far.

Clearly the -AO is dominating the moderate La Nina and warm MJO phases most of the way which has been really amazing to watch.Maybe this has happened in the past but I've never seen anything like this.

We're now getting a strong MJO coming into 6 and forecasted to stay strong and go to 7 and 8 in about 7-14 days.Because of the moderate La Nina,no MJO has been able to move east and break through for several months to the later phases but this one may have a chance.

If we can keep the -AO(forecasted to bottom again soon)with a strong MJO and healthy snowcover to the north,it may get really active soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period.

In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely.

Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time.

Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric.

Thanks for all the input you give to all of us here in GA!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is an excerpt from my forecast. I think someone hit the wrong button or we should name them Captain Obvious.

Tonight: Patchy frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 15. Calm wind.

Saturday: Patchy frost before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am not impressed with any significant winter threat the next 2 weeks. The Euro ensemble means for the NAO and AO are neutral or above until at least the 21st and with at least half the members well beyond that, although the spread becomes large with some room for a reload towards the end of the month, and the new Op hints at a Greenland block near the end of the 10 day period.

In the mean time, the Mon-Tuesday event looks minor ice/sleet at best, meh. Then in the 7-9 day range, the new Op has only weak CAD again, so rain or maybe a bit of ice seems most likely.

Given how good this winter has been already (for most), a quieter and somewhat warmer period seems inevitable anyway, time to teak a break and see what later Jan-March brings, I suspect the NAO/AO will tank again at least one more time.

Update- NC does get hit with mostly ice on the new Op Euro at days 8-9 but farther south looks like just a cold rain. My post is mainly regarding snow threats and also a bit GA centric.

Seems like you are back the the old Cheeze that we all know. Thanks for keeping us GA folks covered and giving us realistic expectations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...