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January 2011 Part 2

MotoWeatherman

By MotoWeatherman,
in Southeastern States

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Posted this in the 19th thread, and then deleted it as it belongs here.

Yeah, I should have clarified better. Damming regions, potentially. Widespread, unlikely, IMO.

On another note, I don't hate the look of the long range Euro. It's not SCREAMING storm, but there is potential there. It's definitely not torchy, which is good.

This is also the third op EC run in a row to bring the blocking back, it may be too far east based initially, but could retrograde into the west position with time, and maybe even down through central Canada again, but that would be a long ways out. Case in point, we are starting to see some hints that blocking is going to make a comeback towards the end of the month, looks to be east based to start, and who knows where it goes from there.

12zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif

0z ECMWF

00zecmwfnao.gif

0z ECMWFensmean

00zecmwfensnao.gif

12z GFS NH H5 anomalies in fantasy range (1040mb centered over Greenland on the NCEP panel at 324hrs)

12zGFS500mbHeightAnomalyNH348.gif

:snowman:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Posted this in the 19th thread, and then deleted it as it belongs here.

This is also the third op EC run in a row to bring the blocking back, it may be too far west based initially, but could retrograde into the east position with time, and maybe even down through central Canada again, but that would be a long ways out. Case in point, we are starting to see some hints that blocking is going to make a comeback towards the end of the month, looks to be west based to start, and who knows where it goes from there.

12z GFS NH H5 anomalies in fantasy range (1040mb centered over Greenland on the NCEP panel at 324hrs)

Good post. What may end up happening is another big southern and eastern surface storm which then bombs out in the Northeast, helping to build the NAO at some point around the next 10 days or so. The Euro has a southwest system holding back, that may the one that does it.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
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Posted this in the other thread, but since it references WeatherNC's maps, I'm reposting here:

That last image there is one pretty map! I think a lot of us would be sitting pretty if that verified. And to Robert's point, I'd be totally fine with a repeating pattern...just as long as the southern stream S/W goes just a bit south and stays in tact. I'm still holding out hope for a 5 day out Euro prog of the Christmas Storm to verify at some point this winter. I think the odds of that are low but greater than other years.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Good post. What may end up happening is another big southern and eastern surface storm which then bombs out in the Northeast, helping to build the NAO at some point around the next 10 days or so. The Euro has a southwest system holding back, that may the one that does it.

Thanks Robert... I don't see anything, at-least for us in the SE to get excited about over the next 10+ days. There is no denying that the long range pattern looks decent, but the finer details are much more difficult to resolve. Depending on where this vortex sets up in central, eastern or even south-eastern Canada around day 10, we could be looking at another clipper shortly thereafter. We are getting towards the time of year when clippers start to take on a vengeance, occasionally dumping 3-6" across the MA and NE. If the vortex is far enough south, like we have seen several times this winter, any clipper would be forced south, possibly through NC again. After that, we are likely going to have to wait and see how the blocking shapes up, and like you mentioned, a bomb riding through the Canadian maritimes would help out in that regard ramping up ridging in the North Atlantic.

Posted this in the other thread, but since it references WeatherNC's maps, I'm reposting here:

That last image there is one pretty map! I think a lot of us would be sitting pretty if that verified. And to Robert's point, I'd be totally fine with a repeating pattern...just as long as the southern stream S/W goes just a bit south and stays in tact. I'm still holding out hope for a 5 day out Euro prog of the Christmas Storm to verify at some point this winter. I think the odds of that are low but greater than other years.

Our areas are very similar in what it takes to get SN from a climo perspective. With this in mind, I do not see a signal in the next 14 days that would indicate potential. Our chance(s) would likely come towards the beginning of Feb and thereafter, at which time we should have the blocking established once again, and possibly retrograding to the SW like we saw in Dec. I am not really a fan off climo, as many winter forecasts were based on this year. Past performance is not always indicative of future results, I learned this in the Marine Corps, saw it first hand with research in college, and am now applying it to Winter 10/11 and how it relates to a typical Nina. :thumbsup: I believe we are in, and will continue to be in a period of sustained high latitude blocking, which negates significant impacts across our region of a strong Nina. Why? Good question, I honestly do not know and can only speculate. My best educated guess is the lack of solar activity over the past two years and multidecadal cycles in the blocking index, which could be related, co-related, or two separate entities. Evidence from the historical record shows that decreased solar activity corresponds to cooler surface temps in NH, the Maunder Minimum for example coincided with a little ice age in the period thereafter. I am not saying we are headed in that direction as the level of min solar activity would need to be observed over several cycles to correlate that way, but who knows, we could be... It is the flipping weather, here in ENC, wait a couple days and it will change. :popcorn:

p.s. This could be a benchmark early svr season, if we can get the blocking to relax, and the strong Nina which should be waning in late winter/early spring to take hold, there is a history of record outbreaks, think the Super Outbreak.

Super_Outbreak_Map.PNG

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Thanks Robert... I don't see anything, at-least for us in the SE to get excited about over the next 10+ days. There is no denying that the long range pattern looks decent, but the finer details are much more difficult to resolve. Depending on where this vortex sets up in central, eastern or even south-eastern Canada around day 10, we could be looking at another clipper shortly thereafter. We are getting towards the time of year when clippers start to take on a vengeance, occasionally dumping 3-6" across the MA and NE. If the vortex is far enough south, like we have seen several times this winter, any clipper would be forced south, possibly through NC again. After that, we are likely going to have to wait and see how the blocking shapes up, and like you mentioned, a bomb riding through the Canadian maritimes would help out in that regard ramping up ridging in the North Atlantic.

Our areas are very similar in what it takes to get SN from a climo perspective. With this in mind, I do not see a signal in the next 14 days that would indicate potential. Our chance(s) would likely come towards the beginning of Feb and thereafter, at which time we should have the blocking established once again, and possibly retrograding to the SE like we saw in Dec. I am not really a fan off climo, as many winter forecasts were based on this year. Past performance is not always indicative of future results, I learned this in the Marine Corps, saw it first hand with research in college, and am now applying it to Winter 10/11 and how it relates to a typical Nina. :thumbsup: I believe we are in, and will continue to be in a period of sustained high latitude blocking, which negates significant impacts across our region of a strong Nina. Why? Good question, I honestly do not know and can only speculate. My best educated guess is the lack of solar activity over the past two years and multidecadal cycles in the blocking index, which could be related, co-related, or two separate entities. Evidence from the historical record shows that decreased solar activity corresponds to cooler surface temps in NH, the Maunder Minimum for example coincided with a little ice age in the period thereafter. I am not saying we are headed in that direction as the level of min solar activity would need to be observed over several cycles to correlate that way, but who knows, we could be... It is the flipping weather, here in ENC, wait a couple days and it will change. :popcorn:

p.s. This could be a benchmark early svr season, if we can get the blocking to relax, and the strong Nina which should be waning in late winter/early spring to take hold, there is a history of record outbreaks, think the Super Outbreak.

This is a great post. I completely agree on the climo thing. This year, many Winter forecasts seemed to rely heavily on Nina climo. And why wouldn't they have? This methodology has worked pretty well in the past. However, like you said, there are quite a few things screaming that it might be unwise to rely so heavily upon climo. Time will tell on the solar aspect, but I also believe it is and will continue to play a pretty significant role. I really believe that we are entering a period of cooler, snowier winters for some time to come. Every single year? Probably not, but I think we're in a different paradigm now. We'll see how it plays out.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

This is a great post. I completely agree on the climo thing. This year, many Winter forecasts seemed to rely heavily on Nina climo. And why wouldn't they have? This methodology has worked pretty well in the past. However, like you said, there are quite a few things screaming that it might be unwise to rely so heavily upon climo. Time will tell on the solar aspect, but I also believe it is and will continue to play a pretty significant role. I really believe that we are entering a period of cooler, snowier winters for some time to come. Every single year? Probably not, but I think we're in a different paradigm now. We'll see how it plays out.

If this had been a weak El-Nino winter, We would not see the ground until May.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Posted

If this had been a weak El-Nino winter, We would not see the ground until May.

Hey, maybe next year. Seems like every year is some version of either a Nino or Nina. Seems like we hardly ever have a year without it being one of those. Maybe it seems that way though because I'm on here too much, where it's talked about all the time. Perhaps it's poisoned my mind. :o

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

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Don't look now, but the just released Euro weeklies are cold in the SE US all of the way through 2/13....****fwiw****. Weeks 2 and 3 are quite a bit colder than last week's weeks 3 and 4.

yeah, if holds true late Jan into early Feb could be interesting... I'm starting to like La Ninas with a extreme solar min.:snowman:

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
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Larry, whats your take on SC24.. It looks like it has a good chance to be lower than the Dalton numbers. The solar stuff is always interesting to me

Funny you ask because I was just going into the Layman's sunspot count website to get today's update. Check out the website and read what Geoff Sharp said today about 10.7 flux:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

Next, check out Leif's 10.7 chart (see pink or 3rd down) and note how the max flux is hardly rising (although min.'s have risen some), which is something one would expect in a grand min. like Dalton or Maunder:

post-882-0-71412600-1294969239.png

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

This is a great post. I completely agree on the climo thing. This year, many Winter forecasts seemed to rely heavily on Nina climo. And why wouldn't they have? This methodology has worked pretty well in the past. However, like you said, there are quite a few things screaming that it might be unwise to rely so heavily upon climo. Time will tell on the solar aspect, but I also believe it is and will continue to play a pretty significant role. I really believe that we are entering a period of cooler, snowier winters for some time to come. Every single year? Probably not, but I think we're in a different paradigm now. We'll see how it plays out.

typo CR in my post you quoted...

I mentioned the NA blocking "possibly retrograding to the SE like we saw in Dec." That should have been SW, sorry for that. :)

Edit: on second read, I jacked up my first post in stating the block would be west based initially, that is incorrect, it would be east based, possibly moving into a western position. Sorry guys for the inaccuracies, I was bouncing back and forth from the MPB and class today, an oversight on my part that should have been caught, but given the material at hand I did not catch, thanks theoretical chem. :axe: Have updated the posts in question... Sorry!!! :snowman:

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I had an 8am class and had to walk across state's campus this morning and I was about to die. :shiver: I was ready to kiss winter goodbye this morning.

8:30 class for me and it was COLD!!!

I just got back to High Point a few minutes ago (four day weekend for me since I don't have any Friday classes!) and am surprised how much snow is still on the ground here. Most of my yard is still covered, especially my front yard which is covered in at least an inch of hard concrete snow. Even some of the secondary roads still have a bit of snow and ice on them.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Looking at model runs from today at 500 level, The GFS and Nam are almost worlds apart at hour 84 in how they handle TX wave. The Nam almost looks like it wants to partially phase it with a northern wave in central/SE Texas, while on the GFS you cant even see it. All options are on the table, but at the moment im inclined to think we will have an east of the Apps storm track coming up out of the SE. If only we could be so lucky and get some sneaky northern piece of energy to drop down and kick this thing off. Regardless of how this plays out, evidence is pointing to alot of fun & games starting late next week. Well see what happens at 0z tonight. Heres the Nam at hour 60/0z

nam_500_060s.gif

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

8:30 class for me and it was COLD!!!

I just got back to High Point a few minutes ago (four day weekend for me since I don't have any Friday classes!) and am surprised how much snow is still on the ground here. Most of my yard is still covered, especially my front yard which is covered in at least an inch of hard concrete snow. Even some of the secondary roads still have a bit of snow and ice on them.

Is your mega long sledding run still any good?

TW

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

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8:30 class for me and it was COLD!!!

I just got back to High Point a few minutes ago (four day weekend for me since I don't have any Friday classes!) and am surprised how much snow is still on the ground here. Most of my yard is still covered, especially my front yard which is covered in at least an inch of hard concrete snow. Even some of the secondary roads still have a bit of snow and ice on them.

I did make it up to Hartford, CT today folks and my God!! The snow piles are three times higher than my rental car! And the cold is brutal. It's windy and dry and cuts right thru you.

Seeing all this snow up here makes me realize how much I really miss DEEP snow. I'm headed to the mountains when I get back home.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

Don't look now, but the just released Euro weeklies are cold in the SE US all of the way through 2/13....****fwiw****. Weeks 2 and 3 are quite a bit colder than last week's weeks 3 and 4.

Thanks for sharing that. Indeed, that is very interesting. Cold in January in the south is one thing. Cold in February in the south is quite another thing as far snow opportunites go. If(stress, if) it were cold in February as well, the departures from normal for the entire winter could be ridiculous for the SE. That would be two winters in a row w/ serious bouts of cold in the three main months of winter. W/ the trace of snow in early November at KTRI, we have three months in a row w/ snow on the observations at the airport alread. What would be awesome would be to add Feb., March, and April. That woud be six months in a row.

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IWC

IWC

Posted
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I have plowed or salted every day since Monday. We were down in Greenville and Columbia SC earlier this week but today was the coldest day yet. The wind would cut you in half. It was miserable outside today. The sun shining made it look 80 until you walked outside

WIMPY WIMPY WIIIIMMMMPPPYYYY !!!

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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Already down to 16 here along the escarpment as we hit 11:30. Another night of our heat pump struggling to keep the house warm. On 3 or 4 occasions already this year, we have had to cut off the heat for a while and run emergency heat so the system can thaw out. It's a been a tough winter on that front.

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