Wow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I feel lukewarm about this upcoming event, at best. It would take a meteorological miracle for my area to see any worth talking about. I'm totally cold on it. Polar/arctic jets really taking over for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nice cool 21 this morning, Though I will likely drop some more after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 13 here in Dahlonega IMBY...brrr.... Clayton GA is down to 4. WOW. Tomorrow morning should be even colder with the high directly overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 17.5 and still falling here with nice clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 23 this morning at RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Very unusual cold here. 10 degrees at 8 a.m., while Asheville Airport, just 24 miles west of here is 17 degrees, and Rutherfordton Marshman Field, just 12 miles southeast of here, is 24 degrees. Morganton-Lenoir Airport is showing 23 degrees, and Franklin/Macon County Airport is at 4.6 degrees. Must be the surrounded valley where I live, and may have something to do with Mt. Mitchell being just 17 miles to my northwest. I guess the famous "Isothermal Belt" micro climate zone runs just to my east. I can handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 23 this morning at RDU. 22 in Lillington and Faynam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Interesting comment on the Accuweather website this morning regarding the Models & their ability to handle cold outbreaks; could portend some more winter weather events.. Computer-generated temperatures used in long-range temperature forecasts will not capture the magnitude of the cold blast. This includes the long-range temperatures found on AccuWeather.com city forecasts.This type of air is most extreme in the low levels of the atmosphere and tends to slip by computer models until a few days out. More fun coming?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 15.6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Great observation of the local temps. At 8pm last night it was 26!! I got up at 6:30 and it was only 25. However, the wind became VERY strong last night. Heard Ice being pushed off the roof onto the ground. Upset my cat so much, she started to growl at the sound. Yes, the belt lives up to the name around here! Not a fun morning feeding the pony and Chickens!!! Very unusual cold here. 10 degrees at 8 a.m., while Asheville Airport, just 34 miles west of here is 17 degrees, and Rutherfordton Marshman Field, just 12 miles southeast of here, is 24 degrees. Morganton-Lenoir Airport is showing 23 degrees, and Franklin/Macon County Airport is at 4.6 degrees. Must be the surrounded valley where I live, and may have something to do with Mt. Mitchell being just 17 miles to my northwest. I guess the famous "Isothermal Belt" micro climate zone runs just to my east. I can handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This weather in the past few days has been amazing for this area. There's still snow on the ground as far S as the Columbia area, three days after the storm. Things are just getting back to normal today. Colleges and universities being closed for three days. Atlanta in a standstill. An ice storm for the Lowcountry of SC, with snow mixing in. Imagine if the low had just tracked 30-50 miles S. Jacksonville to Wilmington would have gotten in on the act. Heck, if the precipitation had formed just a few miles farther S, Charleston could have had a debilitating ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I am really liking the tracks of these systems right now. The Tuesday/Wednesday storm will probably be a rain event for us in the SE but the track of the system on the 00z euro is similar to the track we've seen several times this winter season. If this continues over the course of winter I really like our chances for more winter weather in the SE. Also wanted to note the 00z euro looks cold at 240 with a deep trough over the eastern half of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I am really liking the tracks of these systems right now. The Tuesday/Wednesday storm will probably be a rain event for us in the SE but the track of the system on the 00z euro is similar to the track we've seen several times this winter season. If this continues over the course of winter I really like our chances for more winter weather in the SE. Also wanted to note the 00z euro looks cold at 240 with a deep trough over the eastern half of the US. Yep and with the Euro again saying the cold is coming back, you gotta think somewhere in the 160 - 240 range something big could happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This winter is far from over for the South, gentlemen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Got down to 22 here this morning, woke up to winds howling easily 20-25 mph about 6:30 this morning. Tonight as we get ideal radiational cooling, we're going to see some very low temps. QC and Foothills has been talking about this all week, I think tonight's our night for single digits across a fairly large area. The more snowpack you have, the colder it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Here's our zone forecast for tonight... TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 15. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. I be willing to bet money that we fall at least 3 or 4 degrees below this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Got down to 22 here this morning, woke up to winds howling easily 20-25 mph about 6:30 this morning. Tonight as we get ideal radiational cooling, we're going to see some very low temps. QC and Foothills has been talking about this all week, I think tonight's our night for single digits across a fairly large area. The more snowpack you have, the colder it will be. true. The high will be in a good spot for western NC to radiate well. I only went down to 20 last night, the airport 22. I think around 10 for my area in the morning, give or take a couple degrees and probably some single digits scattered around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 At 5:30 this morning it was 25°; at 7:30 it dipped briefly to 18° before starting the slow climb into today's 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 true. The high will be in a good spot for western NC to radiate well. I only went down to 20 last night, the airport 22. I think around 10 for my area in the morning, give or take a couple degrees and probably some single digits scattered around. It got down to 12 at my house last night and 17 at the farm which is surrounded by lake Hartwell. I guess the winds died down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The summit at Mt. Mitchell looks really neat right now. http://www.ncparks.gov/Visit/parks/momi/conditions.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 After the rain event next week, it looks normal to cold and dry, going off the Euro. Anybody see a return to a blocky pattern anytime soon? I read that there was a stratospheric warming event underway, but I don't know if that's true or not. Anyway, if true, it could lead to renewed blocking. Anyway, there hasn't been a lot of excitement in terms of posting about the upcoming pattern, which kind of confirms what I'm seeing...there's nothing in the modeling to become too excited about at this point. I hope the 12Z guidance shows something cool. I wanna see Robert go off again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Looks like powerstroke has been to charlies; great views on the webcams this morning with the visibility improving. http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_Beech_Charlies.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 After the rain event next week, it looks normal to cold and dry, going off the Euro. Anybody see a return to a blocky pattern anytime soon? I read that there was a stratospheric warming event underway, but I don't know if that's true or not. Anyway, if true, it could lead to renewed blocking. Anyway, there hasn't been a lot of excitement in terms of posting about the upcoming pattern, which kind of confirms what I'm seeing...there's nothing in the modeling to become too excited about at this point. I hope the 12Z guidance shows something cool. I wanna see Robert go off again! The 00z euro looked cold at the end of the run but I don't know if that is going to be a sustained cold period or just temporary or if it's even going to play out like the 00z euro. I'll be the 1st to admit I'm not smart enough to tell. As far as storms I don't see anything so far but I have a feeling we're not done in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 After the rain event next week, it looks normal to cold and dry, going off the Euro. Anybody see a return to a blocky pattern anytime soon? I read that there was a stratospheric warming event underway, but I don't know if that's true or not. Anyway, if true, it could lead to renewed blocking. Anyway, there hasn't been a lot of excitement in terms of posting about the upcoming pattern, which kind of confirms what I'm seeing...there's nothing in the modeling to become too excited about at this point. I hope the 12Z guidance shows something cool. I wanna see Robert go off again! The Euro is having trouble beyond 5 days in this pattern, they all are. But the thing to watch is the cutoff in west Tx. or south of there into the Gulf. It may link up with more incoming western s/w sometime or just get sheared, don't know how its going to work out yet. But right it now takes it up the coast, but bypassing many of us. There still could be a damming event with that, and beyond that are more western shortwaves to watch. I noticed the Euro changed its western trough idea late, and now has it back east. Probably what happens is a storm forms somehwere in the South, related to the S. Tex. wave and links up with a phase or partial phase, then we turn cold right after that goes by, then another system brings in the bitter arctic blast, but so many things are going on simulataneously, like the building PNA out west, I'm just trying to piece it together. The models themselves are showing more acitivity but it could be anywhere yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 00z euro looked cold at the end of the run but I don't know if that is going to be a sustained cold period or just temporary or if it's even going to play out like the 00z euro. I'll be the 1st to admit I'm not smart enough to tell. As far as storms I don't see anything so far but I have a feeling we're not done in the south. Yeah, I agree, the Euro looks cold again. Without a block, though, it will be difficult for it to lock in. We'll be dealing with progressive Nina flow for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 23 this morning at RDU. RDU actually got as cold as 21.9 on their 7am reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The Euro is having trouble beyond 5 days in this pattern, they all are. But the thing to watch is the cutoff in west Tx. or south of there into the Gulf. It may link up with more incoming western s/w sometime or just get sheared, don't know how its going to work out yet. But right it now takes it up the coast, but bypassing many of us. There still could be a damming event with that, and beyond that are more western shortwaves to watch. I noticed the Euro changed its western trough idea late, and now has it back east. Probably what happens is a storm forms somehwere in the South, related to the S. Tex. wave and links up with a phase or partial phase, then we turn cold right after that goes by, then another system brings in the bitter arctic blast, but so many things are going on simulataneously, like the building PNA out west, I'm just trying to piece it together. The models themselves are showing more acitivity but it could be anywhere yet. I noticed all the shortwaves on the GFS. No wonder it looks different with every run. This is the type if pattern, I think, where storms can pop with little lead time. I was wondering since there is so much energy if any of it would phase together. Of course, that'll be difficult to time with the fast flow. I'm not surprised to see the western ridge move east, as there is no blocking showing up yet and it fits the progressiveness (not really a word) of Nina. According to the research of Don Sutherland on the main board, renewed blocking seems likely. I do like seeing the coldest anomalies on our side of the globe. Hopefully, it'll be available for tapping at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 what does Accuweather mean by this, and is it a sound analysis?: "Computer-generated temperatures used in long-range temperature forecasts will not capture the magnitude of the cold blast. This includes the long-range temperatures found on AccuWeather.com city forecasts. This type of air is most extreme in the low levels of the atmosphere and tends to slip by computer models until a few days out." http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44289/weekend-of-january-2223-may-be.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 what does Accuweather mean by this, and is it a sound analysis?: "Computer-generated temperatures used in long-range temperature forecasts will not capture the magnitude of the cold blast. This includes the long-range temperatures found on AccuWeather.com city forecasts. This type of air is most extreme in the low levels of the atmosphere and tends to slip by computer models until a few days out." http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44289/weekend-of-january-2223-may-be.asp Means models usually underestimate magnitude the cold, dense Arctic air. When it arrives, it's usually colder than the models were indicating it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 what does Accuweather mean by this, and is it a sound analysis?: "Computer-generated temperatures used in long-range temperature forecasts will not capture the magnitude of the cold blast. This includes the long-range temperatures found on AccuWeather.com city forecasts. This type of air is most extreme in the low levels of the atmosphere and tends to slip by computer models until a few days out." http://www.accuweath...2223-may-be.asp Its Accuweather, what more can you expect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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