Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A bit off topic, but I think we're overdue for a February snowstorm in the North Carolina. We average almost as much snow in February than in January, yet the last decent February storm in these parts was in 2004, I think. Truth be told, I'd rather get snow during December/January when the sun angle is lower, but we are certainly overdue for a February storm, although the March 1st, 2009 storm was quite close to being one. We did have the February 12th, 2010 storm which got some of you in southern NC and especially SC with snow, but nonetheless, it's been awhile since a big-hitter (I got about 2" on 2/13). I think we do average more snow in February. Not sure if it is just more storms or the ones we get in February produce more. But the past few years we have had more snowstorms in December and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think we do average more snow in February. Not sure if it is just more storms or the ones we get in February produce more. But the past few years we have had more snowstorms in December and January. Yeah I always remember that it used to be February when we got our biggest snows. But the past 3 or 4 years, its been December and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I don't care much about the sun angle as long as it's in the 20s and cloudy for several days following the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NE TN looks like a sloppy mess aroudn 120 on the Euro. Depeds on how long the cold hangs on and what time of day it hits. Looks like one of those situations where in snows/ices for an1-2 hrs and then switches to rain as the high retreats and the warm air pushes up the valley. To be sure, it is better than the 0z. What's up w/ the bitter cold vanishing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NE TN looks like a sloppy mess aroudn 120 on the Euro. Depeds on how long the cold hangs on and what time of day it hits. Looks like one of those situations where in snows/ices for an1-2 hrs and then switches to rain as the high retreats and the warm air pushes up the valley. To be sure, it is better than the 0z. What's up w/ the bitter cold vanishing? Hasn't the Euro and GFS been doing this usual flip flop in the LR only to have the cold actually come just not as strong as progged. Was reading on the main weather discussion side and someone mentioned that the models still need 2-3 days to figure out the pattern. My guess is it stays cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hasn't the Euro and GFS been doing this usual flip flop in the LR only to have the cold actually come just not as strong as progged. Was reading on the main weather discussion side and someone mentioned that the models still need 2-3 days to figure out the pattern. My guess is it stays cold. CPC has the NAO going positive then trending towards neutral. The AO is in the tank. The PNA is positive w/ a slight trend downward. That appears to be a new pattern of sorts - though the weather maps still have the same blocky, -NAO look. So, I agree. I think the models just haven't settled in yet on the pattern. I can't tell if it's going to be warm and the Euro keeps losing it...or it's going to be cold and the models keep losing it. I would lean towards a cold pattern just because that block has not wanted to move. Relax, yes. Move, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hasn't the Euro and GFS been doing this usual flip flop in the LR only to have the cold actually come just not as strong as progged. Was reading on the main weather discussion side and someone mentioned that the models still need 2-3 days to figure out the pattern. My guess is it stays cold. I agree with you, which is why I give the extreme scenario little credibility. The models quite often show extreme cold (see yesterday's Euro) or extreme storm solutions (see Christmas Storm) in the long range, only to back off quite a bit as the event nears. I don't know how about the business of the models needing several days to figure ot the pattern, though. Seems like if that were the case, by the time the got it figured out, the pattern would be in flux again and they'd need another few days to figure it out. The thing I take away from today's runs is that there is no sustained warm pattern anytime soon, and with the reconfiguring of a few things, we'd probably have a few more threats to track. Certainly better than Winters past that held nothing but warmth in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow, you guys are too kind! Batman, where do I send the check! In all seriousness, this is a science that relies heavily upon learning from the past and what worked and didn't work. I always like to lay it all out there....good, bad, and ugly....and see what we can learn as we move forward. Remember what worked, and learn from what didn't so that hopefully the same mistakes won't happen again. Looking at next week, there has definitely been a trend of more emphasis toward coastal track and colder CAD on most modeling. The 12z Euro yesterday tried to drive the low right into the CAD regions. Still a lot of trending to go for most outside of the mountains and northern foothills to see anything of significance (aside from rain), but at least it is something interesting to watch. And whatever the result, I always find CAD scenarios interesting, even in warm season situations. Great video Matt, always good to see a met showing where he went wrong (even though you did great). Agree!! Matt was onto the fact that this could be a major winter earlier than most. Most mets on this board were with him, but many TV and radio mets in the SE either didn't believe it or were afraid to say it.You never nail a winter storm perfectly, but Matt's ideas from long range to short term on this storm were very solid! I really wish one of the TV stations in ATL. would offer him their chief met position. I would love to have is skill and ability located right here in N. GA. However, I feel he is way over qualified to be an ATL TV met. On another note, it does appear the pattern is looking like it did right after the Christmas storm. A few days of relaxation and then back to clod to very cold. Maybe we can get another storm or two down in the gulf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I agree100% with the bold statement below!! Been a while since we have had a great CAD set-up. Wow, you guys are too kind! Batman, where do I send the check! In all seriousness, this is a science that relies heavily upon learning from the past and what worked and didn't work. I always like to lay it all out there....good, bad, and ugly....and see what we can learn as we move forward. Remember what worked, and learn from what didn't so that hopefully the same mistakes won't happen again. Looking at next week, there has definitely been a trend of more emphasis toward coastal track and colder CAD on most modeling. The 12z Euro yesterday tried to drive the low right into the CAD regions. Still a lot of trending to go for most outside of the mountains and northern foothills to see anything of significance (aside from rain), but at least it is something interesting to watch. And whatever the result, I always find CAD scenarios interesting, even in warm season situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I agree100% with the bold statement below!! Been a while since we have had a great CAD set-up. Well normally doesn't a lot of CAD equal a pretty bad ice storm for the lower elevations of western NC. Im pretty sure thats the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Well the 18z is holding serve with the warm temps next week. Does have a 1012 high trying to slide into NY....or am I reading that wrong? Again still learning with the CAD setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Im not really seeing much CAD on the GFS, I could be wrong though. I'll be interested to see what the 00z GGEM and Euro say. On the other hand the JMA thinks some snow/ice for western NC, but who cares about the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Well the 18z is holding serve with the warm temps next week. Does have a 1012 high trying to slide into NY....or am I reading that wrong? Again still learning with the CAD setups. A 1012 high wouldn't cad anything even if you already had cad in place. I think the low that just went through here was like 1012 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A 1012 high wouldn't cad anything even if you already had cad in place. I think the low that just went through here was like 1012 or something. 99 times out of 100 that is true, but actually several years ago, there was in fact freezing rain in parts of nc (rdu to gso I believe) when there was a measly 1012 to 1014 mb high over the mid atlantic/northeast. Very unique circumstances were present to make it happen but It was insane to see that. It didn't get much play because it wasn't a big event but good grief for wedge geeks like me that was impressive since it was extraordinarily rare. That said, the 18z gfs is awful if you want a wedge. Nothing happening there. It seems though the gfs is on a different planet than the euro/ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 99 times out of a 100 that is true but Actually several years ago, there was in fact freezing rain in parts of nc (rdu to gso I believe) when there was a measly 1012 to 1014 mb high over the mid atlantic/northeast. Very unique circumstances were present to make it happen but It was insane to see that. It didn't get much play because it wasn't a big event but good grief for wedge geeks like me that was impressive since it was extraordinarily rare. That said, the 18z gfs is awful if you want a wedge. Nothing happening there. It seems though the gfs is on a different planet than the euro/ggem. 12z GGEM actually came in colder, I'm not going to call it a trend yet, but if the next two runs both the GGEM and Euro show the same thing, only colder, then I will then call it a "trend". It definitely interesting how yesterday we were going to deal with a mild rain, and now we could be dealing with cold rain and some wintry precipitation. But I guess that's how the models always act here for North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A 1012 high wouldn't cad anything even if you already had cad in place. I think the low that just went through here was like 1012 or something. Just wanted to say great sig....I just read it and it is one of the finest primers available for the southern weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 99 times out of 100 that is true, but actually several years ago, there was in fact freezing rain in parts of nc (rdu to gso I believe) when there was a measly 1012 to 1014 mb high over the mid atlantic/northeast. Very unique circumstances were present to make it happen but It was insane to see that. It didn't get much play because it wasn't a big event but good grief for wedge geeks like me that was impressive since it was extraordinarily rare. That said, the 18z gfs is awful if you want a wedge. Nothing happening there. It seems though the gfs is on a different planet than the euro/ggem. Wow, I don't remember that one. There must have been some really cold, dry air in place for that one. That must have been interesting to watch unfold. That won't happen too many times, like you suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Who knows which model is handling the southern stream correctly now, maybe none of them. But if it comes out like the Euro has it just in time to make use of the strengthening high and temps aren't too warm for Tn and part of NC, then snow to ice is possible, and the heights are low so any kind of deepening Gulf low (which no model has) would only cause more of a Winter storm in Tn to NC I think, its not a bad setup but nothing you can put your finger on yet either. Huge question mark following the storm too, as to where the really cold air goes, out west or in the northeast? Or take the middle ground and say midsection? If the PNA is too strong it may be West like the Euro, but the models have tried this before at this range and its not working this Winter, so I'd say bet against that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow, I don't remember that one. There must have been some really cold, dry air in place for that one. That must have been interesting to watch unfold. That won't happen too many times, like you suggested. Believe it or not, temps were not that cold before hand. IIRC, temps/dewpoints were pretty warm and the cold air was actually advected in by that weak high. I wish I could remember the date but I never would have believed that was possible. Interesting note, I saw today that athens broke their all time 24 hour snowfall record! They officially recorded 8.8 inches and the old 24 hour record was 8.7 inches on march 24, 1983. Not bad uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 99 times out of 100 that is true, but actually several years ago, there was in fact freezing rain in parts of nc (rdu to gso I believe) when there was a measly 1012 to 1014 mb high over the mid atlantic/northeast. Very unique circumstances were present to make it happen but It was insane to see that. It didn't get much play because it wasn't a big event but good grief for wedge geeks like me that was impressive since it was extraordinarily rare. That said, the 18z gfs is awful if you want a wedge. Nothing happening there. It seems though the gfs is on a different planet than the euro/ggem. I don't remember the exact year, but I do remember a specific situation where a VERY weak hp was to be centered in the ideal spot. It had been rather warm (50's) and the rain started. I had surfed the boards all week and I remember only the staunchest of CAD addicts saying it had a chance. Most just chalked it up to them being weenies. I remember waking up the next morning to 32.5 and going out and knocking the ice off of the basketball net. I got a huge amount of satisfaction not out of a smidge of ice (and it was just a smidge), but out of the fact that so many said it couldn't happen with such a weak hp. I knew that one day, I would remember it and know that I had at least a chance given a similar sitution. NEVER underestimate CAD when the hp is in the ideal spot (regardless of strength) or the hp is very strong (but it still must be reasonably well positioned). Get the strength and the right position and you have a great storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Ok, you guys sold me! I won't be so quick to hop on my Jump To Conclusions mat and give up on cad when I see a weak high pressure from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Ok, you guys sold me! I won't be so quick to hop on my Jump To Conclusions mat and give up on cad when I see a weak high pressure from now on. LOL! I pulled out the ol' Joe Dirt reference a few minutes ago and Cold Rain pulls out an Office Space reference. Too much TV the last 4 days I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GSP going witha chance of zr for my area early next week.I BET our tired asses will be at it again come tomorrow night or Friday...tracking another one. Love it! Sunday Night: A chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. M.L.King Day: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GSP going witha chance of zr for my area early next week.I BET our tired asses will be at it again come tomorrow night or Friday...tracking another one. Love it! Sunday Night: A chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. M.L.King Day: A chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%. That is quite an understatement, but I have a feeling you are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 LOL! I pulled out the ol' Joe Dirt reference a few minutes ago and Cold Rain pulls out an Office Space reference. Too much TV the last 4 days I guess. Haha! Such classics. I watched OS just like 3 days ago. It is JUST like my work too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Just wanted to say great sig....I just read it and it is one of the finest primers available for the southern weenie. Thanks. It's a tribute to George Washington's Rules for Civility and Decent Behavior In Company And Conversation. A really interesting and fun read. Now if we can somehow get our nice HP quartered in the right location, we'll be in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not sure what thread to put or discuss this in. Anyway just glanced at the oz Nam and it has the texas wave way futher south. Noticing a trend of this system getting pressed south more and more. Not sure what the implications would be, just throwing it out there. Been halfway eyeballing this since Robert pointed it out yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not sure what thread to put or discuss this in. Anyway just glanced at the oz Nam and it has the texas wave way futher south. Noticing a trend of this system getting pressed south more and more. Not sure what the implications would be, just throwing it out there. Been halfway eyeballing this since Robert pointed it out yesterday. Oh boy. I wonder what the GFS, Euro, and GGEM have to say about this. But I would love another wintry hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I feel lukewarm about this upcoming event, at best. It would take a meteorological miracle for my area to see any worth talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.