jrips27 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 We have had light snow for the past 20 minutes. So pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 My brother is in Portland Maine, and he says he got a foot in 4 hours. Says there's three foot drifts and the mall is closed which I guess is a rarity. Could you imagine if we got snow like that? The south would be closed for two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 According to the 12z GFS the storm that drops so much rain in NC at hour 144 has origins from the GOM. The 850s are way too warm due to a strong storm in the middle of the country though, so this will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The thing that should be keeping our attention is the fact that the Canadian is hinting at a CAD setup...with out that don't think there is much of a chance according to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 According to the 12z GFS the storm that drops so much rain in NC at hour 144 has origins from the GOM. The 850s are way too warm due to a strong storm in the middle of the country though, so this will be interesting to see how it all plays out. exactly. without that midwest storm one would think that even though the temps would still be marginal, someone to the northwest of the track would have a shot at snow. Will be interesting to see how the Euro and all other modeling evolves regarding this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The thing that should be keeping our attention is the fact that the Canadian is hinting at a CAD setup...with out that don't think there is much of a chance according to the models. That's what I was hinting at, when I said "this could be interesting". Some extracted GFS data, doesn't actually show temperatures that warm. Mid to upper 30's, but it's going to be a cold rain at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro might be trying to hint at something out to 108...let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro is pretty different then the GFS much colder 850's and that gulf system is more suppressed... Here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro is pretty different then the GFS much colder 850's and that gulf system is more suppressed... Here we go again Thanks Burger, there goes the rest of my week and weekend. Boy these things are changing quickley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Decent low (1010) over Lake Charles with a strong high in gorgeous position over upstate New York at 120 hours. Yikes! Euro is pretty different then the GFS much colder 850's and that gulf system is more suppressed... Here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Thanks Burger, there goes the rest of my week and weekend. Boy these things are changing quickley! @126 the GFS has the 850's up in VA the Euro has it near the NC and SC border. The low gets sheered out around the pan handle of FL before it can really do anything though. Won't take much to change this from sub par to a good look...but a red tagger can probably squash that theory with how the atmosphere over all looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 @126 the GFS has the 850's up in VA the Euro has it near the NC and SC border. The low gets sheered out around the pan handle of FL before it can really do anything though. Won't take much to change this from sub par to a good look...but a red tagger can probably squash that theory with how the atmosphere over all looks. As long as this has the look of more of a snowstorm rather than an ice storm, that's comforting. I think I speak for everyone when I say, I don't want a big ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Guys the Euro is close...we will have to pay attention to this...if the 00z Euro trends a little colder with the same solution oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As long as this has the look of more of a snowstorm rather than an ice storm, that's comforting. I think I speak for everyone when I say, I don't want a big ice storm. I'm not too great with reading the CAD setups but verbatim on the Euro it looks more like snow...40 N for right now but as that low moves up the coast it cranks some moisture over all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Decent low (1010) over Lake Charles with a strong high in gorgeous position over upstate New York at 120 hours. Yikes! High is 1024, which isn't terrible/awful, but it needs to be stronger than that. It's also moved from Nebraska to north of NY in 24 hrs, so it's really hauling arse. It needs to slow the crap down. Anyway, miles better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah, at Day 6 it has a low in a perfect spot off Hatteras -- problem is, another low treks across the northern tier and interrupts the cold air flow -- at least that's what it looks like to me. There is a high sandwiched inbetween the two lows which is up in Maine and is still trying to wedge down our way, but 850s are definitely too warm at 144 hours. Interesting pattern, though. Guys the Euro is close...we will have to pay attention to this...if the 00z Euro trends a little colder with the same solution oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm not too great with reading the CAD setups but verbatim on the Euro it looks more like snow...40 N for right now but as that low moves up the coast it cranks some moisture over all of NC. I just took a look at it, and I think you are right. It appears that some of the sandhills get shafted, with most of NC getting another decent wintry hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah, at Day 6 it has a low in a perfect spot off Hatteras -- problem is, another low treks across the northern tier and interrupts the cold air flow -- at least that's what it looks like to me. There is a high sandwiched inbetween the two lows which is up in Maine and is still trying to wedge down our way, but 850s are definitely too warm at 144 hours. Interesting pattern, though. Yea, it warms up fast. Something fun to watch (of course not religiously at this point). Curious what the CMC does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 @126 the GFS has the 850's up in VA the Euro has it near the NC and SC border. The low gets sheered out around the pan handle of FL before it can really do anything though. Won't take much to change this from sub par to a good look...but a red tagger can probably squash that theory with how the atmosphere over all looks. Trough looks to broad imo, with not enough energy contained at the base to pop anything of consequence. Orientation does look favorable as it goes from pos at day 4, to neutralish at day 5, and neg at day 6, however, it is not nearly sharp enough and you can see the result, a broad area of LP, with a center off NC and one back towards MI. RDU's 850s this run are between 2-2.8C, with surface temps around 3C and 0.5" of QPF. 1000-500mb thick is around 545, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think we're trying to shoehorn this one in. could continue to trend more favorable. We'll see. Regardless, I hope the later panels still show a good pattern being re-established. Edit: And if that other weak system wasn't there near the Lakes, we'd really have a good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Trough looks to broad imo, with not enough energy contained at the base to pop anything of consequence. Orientation does look favorable as it goes from pos at day 4, to neutralish at day 5, and neg at day 6, however, it is not nearly sharp enough and you can see the result, a broad area of LP, with a center off NC and one back towards MI. I seem to recall you being a little negative in this same time frame about the last storm. Haha I'm with you though, right now it doesn't look too promising but this winter it seems like anything is possible, you can go from borderline event to a slam dunk in a matter of a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I seem to recall you being a little negative in this same time frame about the last storm. Haha I'm with you though, right now it doesn't look too promising but this winter it seems like anything is possible, you can go from borderline event to a slam dunk in a matter of a day or two. Yeah, I seem to remember yesterday that it was going to be a definite cold rain. Then the CMC started with the CAD, then the GFS, and Euro trend..hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Don't look now, but the just released 12Z Euro does not have the super Arctic outbreak that it had yesterday at 12Z. I'm just a messenger. We don't like bullets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 We had a weak storm going through the middle of the country with this last storm, but the difference with that storm and this one is, it appears this previous one had a nice cold air mass already established... this one doesnt seem like it will, which will make it nearly impossible for us to get snow with that storm in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The Euro looks pretty close for areas along the NC/VA border West of Danville Va. Surface temperatures range from .5 to 1.5 degrees with 850 temps below 0 except for a short period around 12z Tuesday. And only up to 0.2 degrees at that time with .45" of precipitation. It's only one model and it's still borderline, but something to watch for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The Euro is saying keep your eyes peeled in nw NC and the mountains and maybe the damming region. The high is a little fast but is strengthening on its way to Maine, going from 1020 to 1030, its also colder than GFS. How it goes about this is Murky on GFS and ECM because they both hold the western Tx shortwave back for a long time, then begin to move it. The timing will be key. By the time its in the SE, a low pops offshore (no low in the Gulf-- just overrunning moisture). There's def. room to go either way here, either colder and wetter or warmer and wetter. The mtns. have the most realistic shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 12z GGEM showing a good bit of CAD, with the onset as snow. Hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I seem to recall you being a little negative in this same time frame about the last storm. Haha I'm with you though, right now it doesn't look too promising but this winter it seems like anything is possible, you can go from borderline event to a slam dunk in a matter of a day or two. I will give you that one... RAH was talking Miller A and I just did not see it, looked like a hybrid B deal from several days out, and around here that never works out. Glad you guys to the south and west did good though, overdue and keeps us easterners honest. About the best thing I can take away from this run is the 216 and 240hr panels, yeah I know, fantasy land, but we could be seeing another sustained -NAO taking shape towards the latter part of the month, and the parade of Baja cutoffs keep coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 My brother is in Portland Maine, and he says he got a foot in 4 hours. Says there's three foot drifts and the mall is closed which I guess is a rarity. Could you imagine if we got snow like that? The south would be closed for two weeks I use to live in Conway, NH. nothing EVER closes there. we had a storm like 2000 or 01, had 32" in 9 hours, main roads stayed open the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 A bit off topic, but I think we're overdue for a February snowstorm in the North Carolina. We average almost as much snow in February than in January, yet the last decent February storm in these parts was in 2004, I think. Truth be told, I'd rather get snow during December/January when the sun angle is lower, but we are certainly overdue for a February storm, although the March 1st, 2009 storm was quite close to being one. We did have the February 12th, 2010 storm which got some of you in southern NC and especially SC with snow, but nonetheless, it's been awhile since a big-hitter (I got about 2" on 2/13). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.