jrips27 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow the long range looks exciting again! You have to wonder if we are ever really gonna "warm up" for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I feel like it's just going to be like New Years was. About 3 days of mild-ish weather, then right back into the "ice-box". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Good shots of our snow this morning. Once again as you can see the 85 corridor did really well, also over there in eastern sc. Southwest nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I feel like it's just going to be like New Years was. About 3 days of mild-ish weather, then right back into the "ice-box". I agree. It seems like all the models back in mid-December called for at least a week long warm up around new years, which turned into maybe 2 days of mild-ish weather, then as you say it turned back into the 'ice-box'. Watching the models it seems as though this warm up period is slowly shrinking into nothingness. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Robert...I showed that chart in the video today. I see no signs of 'warm' anytime soon. January warm forecasts......bustola. Sounds good to me. Cars aren't the only things in the ditch, because this would be yet another month where long range forecasts have gone into the ditch. Speaking of jan. Here is the month to date departures. Keep in mind this is before this cold outbreak so these numbers are going to take a big nose dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Great video Matt, always good to see a met showing where he went wrong (even though you did great). Agree!! Matt was onto the fact that this could be a major winter earlier than most. Most mets on this board were with him, but many TV and radio mets in the SE either didn't believe it or were afraid to say it.You never nail a winter storm perfectly, but Matt's ideas from long range to short term on this storm were very solid! I really wish one of the TV stations in ATL. would offer him their chief met position. I would love to have is skill and ability located right here in N. GA. However, I feel he is way over qualified to be an ATL TV met. On another note, it does appear the pattern is looking like it did right after the Christmas storm. A few days of relaxation and then back to clod to very cold. Maybe we can get another storm or two down in the gulf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The wind is really starting to pick up along the escarpment...pretty darn cold on this snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Great disco Matt... Always look forward to your reports. It was 25 this morning, and the sun came out. Stiff winds during the night blew the snow out of the trees, but nothing has melted. Flurries continue to fly from all the activity over the mountain. Spoke to a friend in east Asheville about an hour ago, and it was still snowing steadily. They had over 2 more inches since yesterday. Wind is still blowing here today, and pretty gusty at times from the WNW. Temp sitting at 29 now. Cars are still buried. Luckily, I don't need to go anywhere...... Don't mind the cold. That's why they invented Thinsolate and Gortex. Never lost electric! Never had any ice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Where's Brick and Widre at. After getting the shaft with this storm the last thing we want to see if more miserable cold only to get sucked in to watching the models to only end in misery again. We want an early spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 On the 12z GFS, that Alleutian Low is really cranking at hr 132. I would think our PNA begins to pop shortly thereafter. Will be interesting to see if we can score an overrunning situation with the big high that comes down or if the PNA can pop a gulf low. Fun times ahead. Anyone getting tired of all the "opportunity" to track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Where's Brick and Widre at. After getting the shaft with this storm the last thing we want to see if more miserable cold only to get sucked in to watching the models to only end in misery again. We want an early spring! You can join them at the forum called: www.igottheshaft.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 On the 12z GFS, that Alleutian Low is really cranking at hr 132. I would think our PNA begins to pop shortly thereafter. Will be interesting to see if we can score an overrunning situation with the big high that comes down or if the PNA can pop a gulf low. Fun times ahead. Anyone getting tired of all the "opportunity" to track? Never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hour 144 on the 12z GFS really unloads on Central and Eastern NC..this one is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 its time for a North Carolina special.... Georgia had their fun We are not starting this **** in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 -40 @ 174 hrs per 12z GFS in northern Canada. Wow. That is cold! edit: I have been hearing of a MJO pulse coming in around a similar time frame. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hour 144 on the 12z GFS really unloads on Central and Eastern NC..this one is going to be interesting. unloads rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hour 144 on the 12z GFS really unloads on Central and Eastern NC..this one is going to be interesting. Perhaps RDU, Norfolk Tidewater, and RIC and get their due very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 12z GFS. What weather pattern! Not a lot of storms, but the cold will be in place - impressive cold at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 unloads rain Yeah, I was looking at this. Verbatim it does appear to be rain. The temps are no where to be had, and there doesn't seem to be a way to transport the cold in at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Perhaps RDU, Norfolk Tidewater, and RIC and get their due very soon. Tidewater got a foot on the boxing day storm. I want that. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 what a difference 20+ miles makes in this county. I had a good 1/4" sleet on Monday evening. That is what killed the roads. How are the roads up your way? School is closed in the county for the 3rd day and during my drive to the store this morning, some spots still has 4-5" of snow with a think coating of ice.. Great disco Matt... Always look forward to your reports. It was 25 this morning, and the sun came out. Stiff winds during the night blew the snow out of the trees, but nothing has melted. Flurries continue to fly from all the activity over the mountain. Spoke to a friend in east Asheville about an hour ago, and it was still snowing steadily. They had over 2 more inches since yesterday. Wind is still blowing here today, and pretty gusty at times from the WNW. Temp sitting at 29 now. Cars are still buried. Luckily, I don't need to go anywhere...... Don't mind the cold. That's why they invented Thinsolate and Gortex. Never lost electric! Never had any ice.... Not me! This is shaping up to be a great winter!! On the 12z GFS, that Alleutian Low is really cranking at hr 132. I would think our PNA begins to pop shortly thereafter. Will be interesting to see if we can score an overrunning situation with the big high that comes down or if the PNA can pop a gulf low. Fun times ahead. Anyone getting tired of all the "opportunity" to track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think one of the bigger questions is not 1. Is the cold coming back? but is....... 2. Is this the last big high (next week) before a TRUE break in the pattern, or is the pattern reloaded so we can see successive highs into the month of February? Any met want to offer their opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 M.L.King Day: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. High of 50 with rain and snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 M.L.King Day: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. High of 50 with rain and snow lol I guess GSP is thinking like the Canadian with some CAD on the onset, then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 With almost 70% of the nation covered in snow, one would think that cold fronts will move quite quickly across the plains and spread out - could cause some forecast headaches if the models don't handle that well. With the PNA forecast by CPC to stay positive, the NAO slightly positive then falling, and the AO stuck in negative territory, one would think the pattern is reloading to some extent. The pattern still looks blocky. Just to think two days ago how warm the GFS looked...What I think will be interesting is just how far south that -30 air goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 With almost 70% of the nation covered in snow, one would think that cold fronts will move quite quickly across the plains and spread out - could cause some forecast headaches if the models don't handle that well. With the PNA forecast by CPC to stay positive, the NAO slightly positive then falling, and the AO stuck in negative territory, one would think the pattern is reloading to some extent. The pattern still looks blocky. Just to think two days ago how warm the GFS looked...What I think will be interesting is just how far south that -30 air goes. Birmingham's forecast today was supposed to be clear with a high of 32-33...Currently, 22 with light snow...No way we hit 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 With almost 70% of the nation covered in snow, one would think that cold fronts will move quite quickly across the plains and spread out - could cause some forecast headaches if the models don't handle that well. With the PNA forecast by CPC to stay positive, the NAO slightly positive then falling, and the AO stuck in negative territory, one would think the pattern is reloading to some extent. The pattern still looks blocky. Just to think two days ago how warm the GFS looked...What I think will be interesting is just how far south that -30 air goes. It's amazing how resilient and enduring the pattern is. So many want to make La Nina the King in determining the pattern, but this winter is proving there may very well be much more powerful players in determining the predominant pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's amazing how resilient and enduring the pattern is. So many want to make La Nina the King in determining the pattern, but this winter is proving there may very well be much more powerful players in determining the predominant pattern. I have to admit, I thought La Nina would rule this January and February. Though, for sure, I'm always wary when something appears to be a certainty. 2007-2008(esp. January of that season) seemed to show that things were changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Never! Im with you. I'll never get tired of winter. We have only 2 days out of 12 in January above normal at Greensboro. I'll go back and look tonight but I think we only had 5 or 6 in December. That would equate to 34 out of 42 days at normal or below so far this winter. I feel confident I can achieve +200% annual snowfall for the year. So far I'm at about 110%. This is some impressive cold showing up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hour 144 on the 12z GFS really unloads on Central and Eastern NC..this one is going to be interesting. No it's not. Not whining either. This one will not be the storm for RDU....some opportunities may still come (later) though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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