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January 2011 Part 2


MotoWeatherman

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I feel like it's just going to be like New Years was. About 3 days of mild-ish weather, then right back into the "ice-box".

I agree. It seems like all the models back in mid-December called for at least a week long warm up around new years, which turned into maybe 2 days of mild-ish weather, then as you say it turned back into the 'ice-box'. Watching the models it seems as though this warm up period is slowly shrinking into nothingness. Time will tell...

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Robert...I showed that chart in the video today. I see no signs of 'warm' anytime soon. January warm forecasts......bustola.

Sounds good to me. Cars aren't the only things in the ditch, because this would be yet another month where long range forecasts have gone into the ditch.

Speaking of jan. Here is the month to date departures. Keep in mind this is before this cold outbreak so these numbers are going to take a big nose dive.

mon2day.F.gif

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Great video Matt, always good to see a met showing where he went wrong (even though you did great).

Agree!! Matt was onto the fact that this could be a major winter earlier than most. Most mets on this board were with him, but many TV and radio mets in the SE either didn't believe it or were afraid to say it.You never nail a winter storm perfectly, but Matt's ideas from long range to short term on this storm were very solid! I really wish one of the TV stations in ATL. would offer him their chief met position. I would love to have is skill and ability located right here in N. GA. However, I feel he is way over qualified to be an ATL TV met.

On another note, it does appear the pattern is looking like it did right after the Christmas storm. A few days of relaxation and then back to clod to very cold. Maybe we can get another storm or two down in the gulf!

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Great disco Matt... Always look forward to your reports. It was 25 this morning, and the sun came out. Stiff winds during the night blew the snow out of the trees, but nothing has melted. Flurries continue to fly from all the activity over the mountain. Spoke to a friend in east Asheville about an hour ago, and it was still snowing steadily. They had over 2 more inches since yesterday. Wind is still blowing here today, and pretty gusty at times from the WNW. Temp sitting at 29 now. Cars are still buried. Luckily, I don't need to go anywhere...... Don't mind the cold. That's why they invented Thinsolate and Gortex. Never lost electric! Never had any ice....

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On the 12z GFS, that Alleutian Low is really cranking at hr 132. I would think our PNA begins to pop shortly thereafter. Will be interesting to see if we can score an overrunning situation with the big high that comes down or if the PNA can pop a gulf low. Fun times ahead.

Anyone getting tired of all the "opportunity" to track?

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On the 12z GFS, that Alleutian Low is really cranking at hr 132. I would think our PNA begins to pop shortly thereafter. Will be interesting to see if we can score an overrunning situation with the big high that comes down or if the PNA can pop a gulf low. Fun times ahead.

Anyone getting tired of all the "opportunity" to track?

Never!

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what a difference 20+ miles makes in this county. I had a good 1/4" sleet on Monday evening. That is what killed the roads. How are the roads up your way? School is closed in the county for the 3rd day and during my drive to the store this morning, some spots still has 4-5" of snow with a think coating of ice..

Great disco Matt... Always look forward to your reports. It was 25 this morning, and the sun came out. Stiff winds during the night blew the snow out of the trees, but nothing has melted. Flurries continue to fly from all the activity over the mountain. Spoke to a friend in east Asheville about an hour ago, and it was still snowing steadily. They had over 2 more inches since yesterday. Wind is still blowing here today, and pretty gusty at times from the WNW. Temp sitting at 29 now. Cars are still buried. Luckily, I don't need to go anywhere...... Don't mind the cold. That's why they invented Thinsolate and Gortex. Never lost electric! Never had any ice....

Not me! This is shaping up to be a great winter!!

On the 12z GFS, that Alleutian Low is really cranking at hr 132. I would think our PNA begins to pop shortly thereafter. Will be interesting to see if we can score an overrunning situation with the big high that comes down or if the PNA can pop a gulf low. Fun times ahead.

Anyone getting tired of all the "opportunity" to track?

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With almost 70% of the nation covered in snow, one would think that cold fronts will move quite quickly across the plains and spread out - could cause some forecast headaches if the models don't handle that well. With the PNA forecast by CPC to stay positive, the NAO slightly positive then falling, and the AO stuck in negative territory, one would think the pattern is reloading to some extent. The pattern still looks blocky. Just to think two days ago how warm the GFS looked...What I think will be interesting is just how far south that -30 air goes.

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With almost 70% of the nation covered in snow, one would think that cold fronts will move quite quickly across the plains and spread out - could cause some forecast headaches if the models don't handle that well. With the PNA forecast by CPC to stay positive, the NAO slightly positive then falling, and the AO stuck in negative territory, one would think the pattern is reloading to some extent. The pattern still looks blocky. Just to think two days ago how warm the GFS looked...What I think will be interesting is just how far south that -30 air goes.

Birmingham's forecast today was supposed to be clear with a high of 32-33...Currently, 22 with light snow...No way we hit 32 :popcorn:

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With almost 70% of the nation covered in snow, one would think that cold fronts will move quite quickly across the plains and spread out - could cause some forecast headaches if the models don't handle that well. With the PNA forecast by CPC to stay positive, the NAO slightly positive then falling, and the AO stuck in negative territory, one would think the pattern is reloading to some extent. The pattern still looks blocky. Just to think two days ago how warm the GFS looked...What I think will be interesting is just how far south that -30 air goes.

It's amazing how resilient and enduring the pattern is. So many want to make La Nina the King in determining the pattern, but this winter is proving there may very well be much more powerful players in determining the predominant pattern.

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It's amazing how resilient and enduring the pattern is. So many want to make La Nina the King in determining the pattern, but this winter is proving there may very well be much more powerful players in determining the predominant pattern.

I have to admit, I thought La Nina would rule this January and February. Though, for sure, I'm always wary when something appears to be a certainty. 2007-2008(esp. January of that season) seemed to show that things were changing.

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Never!

Im with you. I'll never get tired of winter.

We have only 2 days out of 12 in January above normal at Greensboro. I'll go back and look tonight but I think we only had 5 or 6 in December. That would equate to 34 out of 42 days at normal or below so far this winter. I feel confident I can achieve +200% annual snowfall for the year. So far I'm at about 110%.

This is some impressive cold showing up on the models.

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